January 4, 2024 7:40am
Earnings’ LPS (loss-per-share) season is a’comin … with Q4 and FY23 numbers striking a blow into share pricing – go slow!
Pre-open Indications: I will play through even as futures rebound
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Remember that overnight action in a.m. futures and global markets doesn't necessarily translate into actual trading in the today’s market session.
I follow the dictum, quoting Churchill that “short words are best, and the old words when short are best of all.”
The pre-open Dow futures are UP +0.16% or (+59 points), the S&P is UP +0.03% or (+1 points) as the Nasdaq is DOWN -0.09% (-15 points)
U.S. stock futures were mixed and still fluctuating on Thursday,
European stocks were higher,
Asia Pacific markets were lower except India.
Henry’omics:
We need to more than consider the economic environment to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …
The only easy session was yesterday as it is gone and we are as usual all in today, Thursday … or are we?
Wednesday, indexes came-off a dismal trading session, with all three major averages closing out with losses as the 30-stock Dow dropped nearly 300 points, or 0.8%, while the S&P 500 fell 0.8% and the Nasdaq posted its 4th straight losing session, dropping more than 1%.
Economic Data Docket: ADP employment change, December (113,000 expected, 103,000 previously) Challenger jobs cuts, year-over-year, December (-40.8% previously); Weekly initial jobless claims, December 30 (218,000 previously) S&P Global US Composite PMI, December, final (51 previously);
Wednesday, RegMed Investors (RMi) Closing Bell: “not feelin’ the love as algorithmic “instructions carry-out a specific order to perform a particular task. Skimming most cell and gene therapy sector upsides although Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR) climbs after being sold through yesterday (closed +$0.56 after being scalped from +$1.90 to grow today +$1.77 or +19.67%)” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13269
Q1/24: 1 holiday, 1 negative and 1 positive closes
Q4:
- December – 1 holiday, 10 positive and 10 negative closes
- November – 11 positives, 1 holiday and 10 negative closes
- October – 1 sick day, 9 positive and 12 negative closes
Companies in my headlights – It’s your decision; I provide ideas and context:
I post about “indication intelligence” devoting my time to collection and analysis of information to assist investors with insight into sector vulnerabilities and strengths. A dictionary definition of “indicate” refers to something less than a certainty; an indication could be a signal of being oversold or overbought, a recommendation, or grounds for inferring or a basis for believing.
I am passing on forecasting the daily indications – it’s just too mixed of some ups, downs and few flats i.e., going, going where …
The BOTTOM LINE: a cell and gene therapy sector pause is due although a slight rebound could evolve from Wednesday’s decline after Tuesday’s uplift.
- I have many a concern of sentiment and conviction in the cell and gene therapy sector.
- I STILL believe the sector is headed into “correction” which means that investors should remain cautious as “our” universe skips into Q4 and 2023’s end earnings’ LPS (loss-per-share) reporting.
My opinion from 12/29/23 ended with “my message of: Looking toward 2024 with one word – recalibration i.e., a change in the way you do or think about something – markets and the cell and gene therapy sector.”
- The sector is what it is, until it isn’t and even then, it doesn’t seem to be… as NOT much changes as the sector’s share pricing rides the waves of volatility, algorithms, electronic trading and short covering.
- The first week of trading in 2024 will instantly put the rally to the test with a crucial December jobs report slated for release on Friday morning.
- The economic calendar will also feature meeting notes from the Fed, the latest update on job openings and fresh data on activity in the manufacturing and services sectors.
News of financings, Q4 earnings LPS (loss-per-share) and “runways” will be the under-current or headwind for January through March 2024. Pricing for gene therapies will continue to dominate share ascensions and downfalls!
- It's a good time to wait and see which stocks stand out after early-January shakeouts.
- The Nasdaq may be about to level off and soon rebound, or perhaps it'll fall back to the top of its prior range and test its 50-day line.
- Right now, it's a time to waiting to see how the sector shakes out.
- It's also not a bad idea to take some profits, especially if you didn't do so in past sessions. <IBD>
Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!
- Right up front, “I also hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and facts are its product; I can always be WRONG but … I am mostly EARLY!”
Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.
Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives. Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.
Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors could hold or have positions securities referred to in this publication and he will NOTIFY investors of holdings.
