November 27, 2023 7:43am

When and what are the catalysts to keep the sector on the upswing?

Pre-Open Indications: 2 Sell into Strength, 3 Negative and 2 Positive

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I say today what others won't, so you can do what others can't whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.

 

The pre-open Dow futures are DOWN -0.11% or (-40 points), the S&P is DOWN -0.11% or (-5 points) as the Nasdaq is DOWN -0.06% or (-9 points)

  • Stock futures are down on Monday possibly breaking the four (4) straight positive weeks for the equity market,
  • European markets start week slightly lower;
  • Asia-Pacific stocks fell on Monday

 

Henry’omics:

We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …

Indexes were mixed as the Dow closed UP +117,12 points or +0.33%, the S&P closed UP +2.72 points or +0.06% while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -15 points or -0.11%.

Wall Street is coming off the fourth-straight winning week for all three major averages, as stocks have rallied since the 10-year Treasury yield retreated from the 5% mark it briefly topped in late October. <CNBC>

Economic Data Docket: The week ahead is also a busy one for economic indicators and Fed commentary. On Monday, new home sales and the latest Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey are due out. Readings for consumer confidence and inflation follow later in the week.

 

Friday, RegMed Investors (RMi) Closing Bell: “bada, bing, bada-boom … A rolling log of the week with what went on and its direct consequences as even I needed a break to enjoy the holiday, friends and family.” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13218

Earnings: RegMed Investors (RMi) - Q3/23 Cell and Gene Therapy Earnings Scorecard Results … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/11628

 

Q4: November – 10 positive and 7 negative closes

·         October – 1 sick day, 9 positive and 12 negative closes

 

Companies in my headlights – It’s your decision; I provide ideas and context: looking for lost SHEAP …

I post about “indication intelligence” devoting my time to collection and analysis of information to assist investors with insight into sector vulnerabilities and strengths. A dictionary definition of “indicate” refers to something less than a certainty; an indication could be a signal of being oversold or overbought, a recommendation, or grounds for inferring or a basis for believing.

 

Sell into Strength Indication:

Friday’s closing price, some Wednesday, Thursday was holiday, Tuesday, Monday Friday. Thursday Wednesday and last Tuesday’s closing “numbers” with aftermarket dollar ($) and cent ($0.00) value and percentage (%)

Blueprint Medicine (BPMC +$1.44 after Thanksgiving, Wednesday’s +$0.71, Tuesday’s +$0.42 and Monday’s +$2.22 with a positive +$0.55 or +0.80% aftermarket indication.

Beam Therapeutics (BEAM +$0.20 after Thanksgiving Thursday, Wednesday +1.52, Tuesday’s +$3.39, Monday’s -$3.29 with a positive +$0.55 or +1.85% pre-open indication.

 

Negative Indications:

Friday’s closing price, some Wednesday, Thursday was holiday, Tuesday, Monday Friday. Thursday Wednesday and last Tuesday’s closing “numbers” with aftermarket dollar ($) and cent ($0.00) value and percentage (%)

BioLife Solutions (BLFS +$0.51 after Thanksgiving, Wednesday’s -$0.06, Tuesday’s +$0.22 and Monday’s +$0.64 with a negative -$0.27 or -1.92% aftermarket indication.

Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS +$0.25 after Thursday, Wednesday’s +$0.54, Tuesday’s -$0.63 and Monday’s +$0.70 with a negative -0.33 or -0.66% aftermarket indication.

Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$0.77 after Thursday and Wednesday’s +$1.80, Tuesday’s -$1.82 and Monday’s +$2.16 with a negative -$0.03 -0.10% pre-open indication.

 

Positive Indication:

Friday’s closing price, some Wednesday, Thursday was holiday, Tuesday, Monday Friday. Thursday Wednesday and last Tuesday’s closing “numbers” with aftermarket dollar ($) and cent ($0.00) value and percentage (%)

Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) Wednesday closed down -$0.80 after Tuesday’s +$1.53, Friday’s -$5.24, Thursday’s -$2.08, Wednesday’s +$1.06 and last Tuesday’s +$4.98 with a positive +$0.06 or +0.04% aftermarket indication.

Verve Therapeutics (VERV) closed up Friday, after Thursday’s Thanksgiving, Wednesday closed up +$0.60 before Thursday’s holiday after Tuesday’s -$0.92 and Monday’s +$0.63 with a positive +$0.49 or +4.04% pre-open indication.

 

 

The BOTTOM LINE: The market rally continued its strong November run, but a key fear gauge raises some concerns…

  • I believe many cell and gene therapy sector upsiders are … overbought.
  • I also DON’T believe totally in the THIS market -- it’s usually a signal to lighten the load of the sector’s upside movers.
  • Being that I have concerns over the resiliency of upside moves that usually end in downward sells as the risk/reward profile doesn’t always compel elevated and “dramatic” i.e., sudden equity pricing.

 

However, the market fear gauge – the CBOE Volatility Index, or VIX fell sharply last week, the fifth straight weekly decline; its lowest levels since before the Covid crash.

I hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and facts are its product; I am more frequently right than consequentially wrong as … I am mostly EARLY!

 

Today’s relevancy from Friday’s session:

  • The small-cap Russell 2000 advanced 0.5% for the week, slightly below the 200-day moving average.
  • The 10-year Treasury yield rose 4 basis points to 4.48%, rebounding Friday from two-month lows.
  • Excessive bullishness or complacency could foreshadow some sort of pullback. So do other measures signaling the market is getting overbought. But a pullback doesn't have to happen right away and it wouldn't have to be sharp or last long.
  • Investors should be very cautious, holding to some positions and building cash if possible!

 

So, it's time to think ahead to December. It's usually an important month for the Nasdaq.

  • But, don’t FORGET portfolio tax selling and a bit of rebalancing
  • And then comes January and with worries that the U.S. economy will be slowing down, the potential for continued Middle East violence and, of course, the real prospect of bitterly contested elections across all of the United States. <The Street>

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.  Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors could hold or have positions securities referred to in this publication and he will NOTIFY investors of holdings.