April 14, 2020 8:37am

Who, what, when, where and why … we still don’t know the degree of impairment to the cell and gene therapy sector? What I do know is that earnings season will be another dose of further negativity alongside current disruptive perils

News: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY)

Pre-open indications: 2 BUYs and 6 SELLs into strength

What I provide is an “intelligence newspaper” to ensure that shareholders are kept apprised based on a 24-hour surveillance of the RegMed/cell and gene therapy sector. Check the BOTTOM LINE against my motto of “never leaving an investor uninformed.” <read more>

Dow future are UP +1.29% (+320 points), S&P futures are UP +1.2% (+34 points) and NASDAQ futures are UP +1.59% (+132 points)

 

Index futures rose in early morning trading Tuesday as investors grew more optimistic about the coronavirus outlook while bracing for the start of earnings season <Johnson& Johnson (JNJ) is one of the first>;

European markets traded higher as investors look for an exit strategy to the region’s coronavirus lockdowns with the pan-European Stoxx 600 added +0.6% in early trade;

Asia Pacific markets also traded higher following the release of Chinese trade data for March with japan, South Korea and Australia opened after a holiday with the MSCI Asia ex-Japan index was +1.28% higher. Indian markets were still closed for a holiday;

  • China reported that its dollar-denominated exports and imports both fell from a year ago in March, but they were better than what economists had expected. China’s exports fell 6.6% in March from a year ago, while imports slipped 0.9% in the same month.

 

Henry’omics:

Optimism is driving to a higher open ... is the worse case scenarion ... really off-the-table?

Leading-off earning’s results - Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) beat analysts' estimates for Q1/2020 profit on higher sales of its cancer drugs and consumer products including Tylenol, while slashing its full-year forecast due to the coronavirus shutdowns. JNJ raised its dividend by 6.3% to $1.01 per share, rose 3% to $144 in trading before the bell. Net earnings rose to $5.80 billion, or $2.17 per share, in Q1, from $3.75 billion, or $1.39 per share, a year earlier. JNJ now expects 2020 adjusted earnings per share of $7.50 to $7.90, compared with its prior estimate of $8.95 to $9.10.

Last night, the NASDAQ closed up; volume is still way down as rotation spins the bottle; so, who gets the kiss – a positive upside close?

 

The BOTTOM LINE: Earnings season is kicking-off today but, the RegMed/cell and gene therapy sector are at the tail end of the usual negativity in reporting the “numbers”. The keys of the kingdom as I have stated in the most recent past are collaborative partners, cash positions, clinicals re population recruitment and their continuation pitted against drop-outs due to timing and pandemics.  Ultimately “runways” are the indicator of value – the ability to stay the course of development and clinicals. An IND is worthless unless funding is in place, if that same filing has even been approved by the FDA.

  • It’s all about performance and the what, when, where and whys of who is stirring the pot!

Before I’d start, also check the 52-week percentages as compared to the S&P500 52-week change alongside the 52-week low and highs as compared to the 50 and 200-day moving averages all followed by the who, what, when, where and why of the previous session and week as this sector suffers the “tourist trade” and short-term appreciation.

Remember, "Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth." Marcus Aurelius

 

Monday night’s title: “never bend down for a falling knife, it could bounce off the tile and draw blood. Our universe is a rotational and range bound sector as testing the lows is a challenge.”

  • the NASDAQ closed UP +38.85 (+0.48 %);
  • the IBB closed up +0.46% and XBI also closed down -0.16%;
  • Monday closed negative with an Advance/Decline (A/D) line of 16/19 of the 35 covered companies;
  • Monday’s volume was even LOWER as (5 out of the 16-upside had higher than the 3-month average) volume and (3 out of the 19-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume);

Yet, I am seeing multiple session repeat upsides versus lower denomination downsizers:

  • 6-session repeater – ReNeuron (RENE.L);
  • 4-session repeater – Fate Therapeutics (FATE);
  • 3-session repeater: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) and CRSP Therapeutics (EDIT);
  • 2-session repeater –  Pluristem (PSTI) and Editas Medicine (EDIT),
  • Back on the upside board: Ultragenyx (RARE) with six (6) others … QURE, BLCM, PSTI, CLLS,  ATHX, BCLI and BLFS

While the hop-scorchers were thinning:

  • Biostage (BSTG) closed down in 5 sessions and up 3 times in the last eight (8) sessions;
  • 1 down session after 6-sessions of upside - Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT);
  • 2-session downside repeater – after the news of a restructuring – Sage Therapeutics (SAGE) and AxoGen (AXGN)

 

Q2:

  • April registered 4 negative, 4 positive closes and 1 market holiday

Q1:

  • March registered 11 negative, 1 neutral and 10 positive closes
  • February registered 9 negative, 9 positive closes, 3 vacation days and 1 holiday.
  • January registered 9 negative, 10 positive closes and 2 holidays.

 

Companies in my headlights – It’s your decision; I provide an idea and context:

News on Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) continues from the title … the U.S. FDA has granted Fast Track designation to vutrisiran, an investigational therapeutic for the treatment of the polyneuropathy of hereditary transthyretin-mediated (hATTR) amyloidosis in adults. "Vutrisiran has demonstrated an encouraging safety profile in the P1 study, with infrequent quarterly dosing with low-volume, subcutaneous administration which potentially reduces the burden of care for this progressive, life-threatening and multisystem disease. "After completing enrollment earlier this year, ALNY looks forward to sharing topline results of the HELIOS-A P3 study of vutrisiran in early 2021 and remain committed to developing additional therapeutic options for the treatment of ATTR amyloidosis to augment the market-leading position of ONPATTRO® (patisiran), approved for the treatment of the polyneuropathy of hATTR amyloidosis in adults."

I’d be selling into strength …

  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) with a 52-week change of +34.38% - there’s room to sell into;
  • ReNeuron (RENE.L with a negative -$11.00 pre-U.S. indication;
  • Fate Therapeutics (FATE) with a 52-week change of +65.58% - there’s room to sell;
  • Pluristem (PSTI) has a positive pre-market +$0.26 or +3.29% indication;
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) has a positive pre-market +$0.09 or +0.20% indication;
  • Athersys (ATHX) has a positive pre-market +$0.01 or +0.29% indication, also with a 52-week change of +145.39%;

And BUYING:

  • Mesoblast (MESO) with a positive pre-market of +$0.39 or +5.69% having closed down -$0.11 to $6.85;
  • A near-term “idea’ – Stemline therapeutics (STML) which had closed down -$0.23 to $5.00 which started 1/2/2020 at $10.79;

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.