March 8, 2024 7:31am
Sentiment could evaporate if Friday's monthly jobs report fails to point in the needed direction as “State of Union” addresses concerns of more taxes to spend than reduce debt
Pre-open Thoughts: 3 Positive and 3 Negative Indications
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Remember that overnight and pre-open actions’ futures and global markets doesn't necessarily translate into actual trading in the today’s market session.
If you’re looking for sector intel, ideas and facts or Insight in a volatile climate, RMi provides the extenuating factors of share pricing.
Friday: The pre-open Dow futures are DOWN -0.06% or (-24 points), the S&P futures are UP +0.18% or (+9 points) as the Nasdaq futures are UP +0.19% or (+35 points) <updated>
U.S. futures were mixed and still fluctuating on Friday,
European markets were marginally higher,
Asia-Pacific markets rose after comments from U.S. Fed Chair Powell hinted interest rate cuts
Henry’omics:
We need to more than consider the economic environment to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies
Thursday, indexes rose with the Dow closing UP +130.30 points or +0.34%, the S&P closed UP +52.60 points +1.03% while the Nasdaq closed UP +241.83 points or +1.51%
As the week draws to a close, Thursday the S&P 500 has a gain of +0.4%, while the Dow is down by nearly 0.8%. The Nasdaq is off slightly week to date, with a 0.01% decline.
Economic Data Docket: U.S. job growth totaled 275,000 in February but unemployment rate rises to 3.9%
- Job creation eased slightly in February though still topped expectations and pointed to a vibrant U.S. labor market, even though the unemployment rate moved higher
- U.S. job growth totaled 275,000 in February but unemployment rate rises to 3.9%
- Nonfarm payrolls increased by 275,000 for the month while the jobless rate moved higher to 3.9%. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for payroll growth of 198,000, a step down from the big surges of the previous two months.
- Average hourly earnings showed a slightly less than expected increase for the month and a deceleration from a year ago.
Thursday’s night RegMed Investors (RMi) Closing Bell: “drip, drip and drop share pricing. Is sentiment truly at work, not on this watch” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13362
Q1/24: march – 2 positive and 3 negative closes
- February – 1 market holiday, 11 positive and 9 negative closes
- January: 2 holidays, 11 negative and 8 positive closes
Companies in my headlights – It’s your decision; I provide ideas and context:
I post about “indication intelligence” devoting my time to collection and analysis of information to assist investors with insight into sector vulnerabilities and strengths. A dictionary definition of “indicate” refers to something less than a certainty; an indication could be a signal of being oversold or overbought, a recommendation, or grounds for inferring or a basis for believing.
I am passing on forecasting the daily indications – the aftermarket is NOT for me to forecast… it is just TOO inflation-oriented …February’s nonfarm payrolls data and post the “State of the Union” address I believe will cause turbulence in tomorrow’s market!
it is still a mix of ups, downs and just unknowns and flats. Although, I would watch …
Positive indication:
Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$1.14)
Beam Therapeutics (BEAM +$0.50)
CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$0.25
Negative indication
BioLife Solutions (BLFS -$0.26)
Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR -$0.29)
Vericel (VCEL -$0.32)
The BOTTOM LINE: Depending on your portfolio attention level and investing style; investors could consider taking partial profits in some extended equities and a few overbought stocks. In any case, you should have your exit strategy in place.
- The Nasdaq is extended, while sentiment is close to euphoric; it's time to be careful about new buys once again.
The cell and gene therapy sector equities were barely negative on Thursday after Wednesday’s pop after diving on Tuesday and Monday and Friday’s pop.
- The sector fell on Thursday (closed negative close of 16 incliners, 17 decliners and 2 flats) after Wednesday (closed positive with 21 incliners, 14 decliners and 0 flat), but ended up regaining only a portion of Tuesday's sharp losses (closed negative with 5 incliners, 29 decliners and 1 flat), Monday’s (closed negative with 6 incliners, 27 decliners and 2 flats) decline, Friday’s (closed positive of 23 incliners, 10 decliners and 2 flats) followed Thursday’s (closed negative with 7 incliners, 26 decliners and 2 flat)
Quotes:
Showing how the wind is blowing elsewhere, policymakers from the European Central Bank lined up to support a rate cut there before their summer break as inflation falls faster than expected. Meanwhile, Bank of Japan officials are said to be warming to the idea of finally lifting rates out of the negative zone. <Yahoo Finance>
JPMorgan’s chief market strategist built on risks of stagflation too. Marko Kolanovic warned a “second inflation wave” could take hold, with the chances of the “narrative turning back from goldilocks towards something like 1970s stagflation,” he said in a recent research note. A goldilocks economy refers to a favorable environment whether data is neither too hot or cold.
The remainder of the month’s trading sessions will be critical as the RegMed sector continues earnings’ in LPS (loss-per-share) season, estimates and consensus which set market reaction and will report “runways” and those whose cash positions render their future questionable.
21 (of 35 covered companies) have reported …14 are left to release earnings of my covered group.
RegMed Investors (RMi) Research Note: Q4/23 earnings reporting dates, net losses, cash positions and runway outcomes … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13166
I STILL reiterate, “Don't chase the cell and gene therapy sector.”
Short and non-sweet: SELL into STRENGTH – accumulate some “powder” i.e., cash!
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From Thursday’s market:
- The Nasdaq jumped 1.5%, both hitting fresh all-time highs.
- The small-cap Russell 2000 rose 0.8%, hitting a 23-month high intraday.
- The Nasdaq is already slightly extended again, 5.1% above its 50-day moving average.
- The 10-year Treasury yield edged down 1 basis point to 4.09%, but off early lows at 4.05%.
Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!
- Right up front, “I also hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and facts are its product; I can always be WRONG but … I am mostly EARLY!”
- The sector is what it is, until it isn’t and even then, it doesn’t seem to be… as NOT much changes as the sector’s share pricing rides the waves of volatility, algorithms, electronic trading and short covering.
Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.
Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives. Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.
Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors could hold or have positions securities referred to in this publication and he will NOTIFY investors of holdings.
