October 3, 2017 7:52am
As there are too many cross-currents and it’s hard to discern whether investors should be buying, selling or holding
Profit in your account is better than an algorithms’ calculation or an ETFs basket
Sentiment, although good yesterday remains in the “danger zone,” and therefore implies a negative forecast in the short-term
Pre-open indications: 3 BUYs and 4 SELLs
What’s the gauge of pricing expectation? It’s called premium content for a reason: I report the truth in “our” universe!
Preview RMi's morning call. You’d be reading this if you were a SUBSCRIBER!
If you had been right as many times as I have been in these many months of 2017 as a SUBSCRIBER you would know when to get in and out or get back in again!
A critical pre-market indication ahead of “our” universe’s open!
Higher open expected
Dow futures are UP +0.12% (28 points) and NASDAQ futures are UP +0.05% (3 points)
U.S. stock index futures pointed to a slightly higher open Tuesday, with the positive trading streak for the fourth quarter set to continue, after Wall Street finished on a strong note in the previous session.
European stocks hovered around the flat line as political concerns eased slightly and investors digested new data releases.
Asia markets traded mixed, despite U.S. equities closing at record highs overnight.
Data docket: None
Issues that will affect the trading day: positive trading sentiment is set to continue, domestic and political news, however, are set to keep investors on edge.
The cell therapy sector closed POSITIVE on Monday, Friday, Thursday and Wednesday and NEGATIVE last Tuesday.
The cell therapy sector’s record over the last 5 sessions (of 43 covered companies):
· Monday closed POSITIVE with 14 decliners, 26 advancers and 3 flats;
· Friday closed POSITIVE with 14 decliners, 23 advancers and 6 flats;
· Thursday closed POSITIVE with 14 decliners, 24 advancers and 5 flats;
· Wednesday closed POSITIVE with 13 decliners, 30 advancers and 0 flats;
· Last Tuesday closed NEGATIVE with 23 decliners, 17 advancers and 3 flats;
Henry ’omics:
From Monday night’s closing bell post “… the month starts on a good note. What will support today’s upside - a follow-on wave of support?
Reiterating, “… Are we ready for October and Q3’s financial results as a continuation of sporadic achievement and upside harvesting?”
These are days when investors forget or don't appreciate the risks that the sector faces … Are investors chasing share pricing growth?
I’d be concerned … the iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) indicated up +2.97% for the past five (5) sessions – it could be time or be close to a “falter”:
· Monday was up +1.51%
· Friday +0.92%
· Thursday +$0.46%
· Wednesday +0.57%
· Tuesday -0.93%
· Last Monday +0.44%
You’ve made it to the office, turned on the monitor, having just gotten your coffee and it hits you - what could be today’s trades?
Watch list:
- The iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology (IBB) closed up +1.51% on Monday and is indicating a NEGATIVE -0.0% in Tuesday’s pre-market;
- The SPDR S&P Biotech ETF (XBI) closed Monday up +1.62% and is indicating a POSITIVE +0.17% in Tuesday’s pre-market;
- The Health Care Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLV) closed up +1.02% on Monday and is indicating a POSITIVE +0.01% in Tuesday’s pre-open;
- The iShares Russell 2000 (IWM) closed up +1.23% on Monday and is indicating a POSITIVE +0.03% in Tuesday’s pre-open
Companies in my headlights:
Cesca Therapeutics (KOOL) closed up +$0.03 to $3.60 with 2.7 K shares traded <3 month average = 91.8 K shares>. the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office (USPTO) has issued a Notice of Allowance regarding the company’s pending application for a patent covering its proprietary method for separating rare, therapeutically critical target cells from blood, bone marrow, leukapheresis product, and other cell sources, while maintaining the viability of the cells under asceptic conditions. This advanced cell separation technology, known as Buoyancy-Activated Cell Separation, or BACS, is key to the ongoing development of Cesca’s CAR-TXpress™ platform. The pre-market indication is a positive +$1/06 or +29.17% - BUY;
Cellectis SA (CLLS) closed up +$0.53 or +1.86% to $28.98 with 105.4 K shares traded <3 month average = 205.3 K shares> after Friday’s +$0.98 or +3.57% to $28.45 with 158.1 K shares traded. In four (4) days there is $1.88 of premium for a share that flip-flopped in September starting at $32.18 with a low of $25.51. The Q is over and a residual of upside, maybe I’m wrong but, if you hold it; safety always has a premium – Maintaining SELL;
Histogenics (HSGX) closed flat at $1.98 with 183.6 K shares traded <3 month average =74.9 K shares>. HSGX announced additional biomechanical data from human engineered cartilage testing: data demonstrates the importance of generating extracellular matrix during Ex-Vivo manufacturing of cartilage cell therapy – which may enable an earlier return to function after treatment and improve biomechanical competence of cartilage cell therapy compared to therapies with only cells and scaffolds. The aftermarket indication is a positive +$0.10 or +5.01% - BUY;
Intrexon (XON) closed up +$0.40 or +2.1% to $19.41 with 828.7 K shares traded <3 month average = >. Back and forth 9/17 saw $19.47 while 9/11 was priced $19.85 as September started at $20.17. The aftermarket indication is a negative -$0.12 or -0.62% - SELL;
MiMedx (MDXG) closed up +$0.91 or 7.66% to $12.79 with 2.65 M shares traded after Friday’s +$0.02 to $11.88 with 3.7 M shares traded after Thursday’s $11.86 (-$0.06) with 2.4 M shares traded after Wednesday’s -$0.40 to $11.92 with 3.254 M shares traded after last Tuesday’s -$0.03 to $12.32 with 2.37 M shares traded <3 month average = 2.09 M shares>. Many of the legal challenges that have faced the company have seen significant wins. With $47.53 M in cash (6/30/17), $15 K in debt and $283.32 M in revenue and a profit margin of 7.48%. MDXG also issues a response to two (2) “short sellers” for misleading research/informational reports- I’m voting for a good quarter - Maintaining BUY;
uniQure N.V. (QURE) closed up +$0.79 or +8.23% to $10.39 with 281.8 K shares traded <3 month average = 131.5 K shares>. The month started at $7.98 with a low of $7.70 and a high of $10.39. There is a $1.61 or 15.4% <my threshold> premium in the shares pricing over four (4) sessions. August started at $7.79 with a low of $7.70 and a high of $9.05 which I believe says it all – time to grab some profits before the Q’s results come out. The aftermarket indication is a negative -$0.14 or -1.33% - SELL;
Vericel (VCEL) closed down -$0.15 to $5.85 with 219.6 K shares traded following Friday’s+$0.40 or +7.14% to $6.00 with 2 M shares traded <3 month average = 545.1 K shares> after Thursdays $5.60 (+$0.10) with 1.7 M shares traded and Wednesday’s +$0.60 to $5.50 with 1.77 M shares traded. September started at $4.35 with a low of $4.30 having hit $4.85 and $4.95, three (3) times each while August started at $3.13 with a low of $3.00 and a high of $4.30. As Q2 ended, July started at $3.40 with a low of $3.10 and a high of $3.50. The upside was a little too swift and traders will take some profit. VCEL is going to NEED a financing ($14.04 M as of Q2’s end) especially with $10.16 M in debt on the books; while revenue has been strong – I wonder what the forthcoming Q “show”? The pre- market indication is a negative -$0.4 or -0.80% - Maintaining SELL;
Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.
Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.
Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.
