November 21, 2017 7:40am
Transparency and guidance by managements can escort investors out of the current maze of negative sentiment!
Investors want to know, will forgive if there’s a substance beyond the words of the message
Pre-open trading indications: 3 SELLs and 2 BUYs:
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Higher open expected
Dow futures are UP +0.28% (+66 points) and NASDAQ futures are UP +0.31% (+19.50 points)
U.S. stock index futures pointed to a higher open Tuesday, as investors geared up for a new slew of corporate earnings.
European equities hovered around the flat line with investor sentiment curbed by a political impasse in Germany.
Asia markets traded mostly higher, following gains in U.S. equities overnight amid strong economic data.
Issues that will affect the trading day: After the turbulence <2 negative closes followed by two positive sessions> seen last week, are we just repeating the trend? There will also be a short week for the U.S. stock market, which is set to be closed Thursday for the Thanksgiving holiday.
Data docket: the Chicago Fed National Activity Index is set to be released at 8:30 a.m. ET, as is the Philadelphia Fed's Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook Survey. Existing home sales will then come out at 10 a.m. ET.
On the political front: Concerns however still linger on Wall Street, as to whether a tax cut deal will come about and be finalized by the end of the year.
Henry’omics:
From Monday night’s closing bell post, “opens down, flirts to the upside and closes negative. The iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology (IBB -0.93%) and SPDR S&P Biotech (XBI -0.69%) were down. Low volume and no real news cause more than a little selling for profit-taking. A lot of hands are out, waiting for a payday while some fingers are readying a push of a turkey button i.e. get me out’a here!”
Referencing the title, “Its believability, stupid; the same message I have been advocating, it seems forever.”
There is an opportunity in RegMed and cell therapy equities however; there is nothing constant in this market. Most investors recognize that they need to trim momentum driven stocks to focus on the oversold – if you’re staying invested in “our” universe!
It is NOT always the lack of opportunities in stem and gene therapy outside of RegMed stocks but, the sentment and profit-taking sales that are the killers.
That is simply a part of life in this arena. If you watch for pattern, there are plenty of opportunities. Investors following momentum, volume and relative strength patterns have recently made trading profits.
This is also the day many leave for their Thanksgiving “distance” turkey, be safe out there!
The cell therapy sector closed NEGATIVE on Monday, POSITIVE on Friday and Thursday, NEGATIVE on Wednesday and last Tuesday. The cell therapy sector’s record over the last 5 sessions (of 43 covered companies):
· Monday closed NEGATIVE with 24 decliners, 19 advancers and 0 flats
· Friday closed POSITIVE with 15 decliners, 26 advancers and 2 flats;
· Thursday closed POSITIVE with 13 decliners, 28 advancers and 2 flats;
· Wednesday closed NEGATIVE with 22 decliners, 18 advancers and 3 flats;
· Last Tuesday closed NEGATIVE with 30 decliners, 11 advancers and 2 flats;
You’ve made it to the office, turned on the monitor, having just gotten your coffee and it hits you - what could be today’s trades?
Watch list:
- The iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology (IBB) is indicating a NEGATIVE -0.25% in Tuesday’s pre-market;
- The SPDR S&P Biotech ETF (XBI) is NOT indicating in Tuesday’s pre-market;
- The Health Care Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLV) is NOT indicating in Tuesday’s pre-open;
- The iShares Russell 2000 (IWM) is indicating a POSITIVE +0.33% in Tuesday’s pre-open
Companies in my headlights:
AxoGen (AXGN) closed up +$0.70 to $24.30 after Friday’s +$1.00 to $23.60, Thursday’s -$2.30 to $22.60, Wednesday’s +$0.10 to $24.90 with 194.5 K shares traded and last Tuesday’s flat at $24.80 with 148.9 shares traded. My issue has been the cash position ($22 M) and bank debt positions ($25 M). The total net proceeds from the offering are estimated to be approximately $15.4 million, after deducting underwriting discounts and commissions and other estimated offering expenses payable. AxoGen did not receive any proceeds from the sale of shares by the selling shareholder (EW Healthcare Partners L.P., formerly named Essex Woodlands Fund IX L.P.). An offering priced at $21.00 closed, there is $3.70 or +15.2% in premium since 11/1; there is also a lot more shares out there post the offering - Maintaining SELL;
Bellicum Pharmaceuticals (BLCM) closed down -$0.27 to $9.73 with 264.8 shares traded <3 month average = 602.3 K shares>. The week of the 13th through the 17th began at 9.94 and ended at $10.00 while the previous week, the 6th started at $10.05 and ended at $10.38 - Oversold with an aftermarket indication is a POSITIVE +$0.24 or +2.47% – BUY;
bluebird bio (BLUE) closed up +$2.20 to $165.40 with 402.5 K shares traded after Friday’s +$3.05 to $163.20 with 483 K shares traded <3 month average = 906.4 K shares> after Thursday’s +$160.15, Wednesday’s $156.90 and last Tuesday’s $158.35. Last week saw $151.75 (Friday), $151.75, and the previous Monday’s $144.75 – a target for traders. Hop, scotch, drop the stone and turn around- Maintaining SELL;
BioLife Solutions (BLFS) closed up +$0.19 to $6.11 with 84.7 K shares traded after Friday’s +$0.23 to $5.92 with 98.5 K share traded<3 month average = 210.8 K shares>. Thursday saw $5.69, Wednesday’s $6.16, Tuesday’s $6.09 and last Monday’s $6.21. The previous week saw Friday’s $5.91 along with the previous Monday’s $5.18. I still have a problem with their cash and debt position and their dependence on facilitation for others, sooner or later companies are going to seek external solutions for their cash position or are they borrowing or factoring against their “enhanced” share pricing - Maintaining SELL;
MiMedx (MDXG) closed down -$0.76 to $11.06 with 2.25 M shares traded <3 month average = 2.99 M shares>. Back and forth, round and round, session after session – they have solid revenue and a decimated group of comparable. Oversold, - BUY;
Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.
Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.
Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.
