October 18, 2017 7:34am

Even after Q3 ended and quarterly results are being prepared, there seems to be a lot of selling going on …

The issue is expectation or the lack thereof yet the “window” of capital market access is still open

 

What’s the gauge of pricing expectation – monetization of information!

No subscription - you’re missing situational awareness!

 

Successful investing and trading means going upstream to obtain and quantify data to qualify actionable intelligence!

 

Pre-open indications: 3 SELL and 2 BUY

 

Trades in sector equities are precursors of news, not the other way around!

 

Higher open expected

Dow futures are UP +0.32% (73 points) and NASDAQ futures are UP +0.09% (5.25 points)

 

U.S. stock index futures pointed to a slightly higher open Wednesday, as investors turned their attention to new data releases and corporate earnings reports.

European markets were higher, as investors monitored the latest batch of earnings and economic data releases.

Asia markets closed narrowly mixed as investors in the region looked to China's Party Congress for signs on future policy direction in the world's second-largest economy.

 

Issues that will affect the trading day: the performance of U.S. markets in general. In the previous session, the Dow Jones industrial average broke above 23,000 for the first time on an intraday basis, and closed just below the 23,000 of the mark.

Data docket: The U.S. central bank's latest publication of the Beige Book will also be in focus; which is set to come out at 2 p.m. ET. The publication is expected to shed light on the U.S. Federal Reserve's thoughts on present economic conditions. Mortgage applications is set to come out at 7 a.m. ET, followed by housing starts and building permits, both due at 8:30 a.m. E.T.

 

 

The cell therapy sector closed POSITIVE on Tuesday, NEGATIVE on Monday, Friday, Thursday and last Wednesday.

The cell therapy sector’s record over the last 5 sessions (of 43 covered companies):

·         Tuesday closed barely POSITIVE with 19 decliners, 20 advancers and 4 flats;

·         Monday closed NEGATIVE with 29 decliners, 11 advancers and 3 flats;

·         Friday closed NEGATIVE with 32 decliners, 9 advancers and 2 flats;

·         Thursday closed NEGATIVE with 23 decliners, 16 advancers and 4 flats;

·         Last Wednesday closed NEGATIVE with 26 decliners, 14 advancers and 3 flats;

 

 

Henry ’omics:

From Tuesday night’s closing bell post, “sector loses strength while some add a short burst to their worth. ETF exposure is dangerous to sector share pricing due to inefficient value rating, but they do trade a lot easier and liquidly.”

As to the title, plummeting confidence causes share price depression and a bust cycle!

Investors get nervous when the sector sells-off. When a company such as Biostage (BSTG) lays off scientist and techs, investors start wondering who might be next in running out of capital?

The bust cycle eventually stops on its own. That happens when prices are so low that those investors that still have cash might just start averaging down hoping for a development boom.

It has happened to a few, very few!

Confidence can be restored, not just with a new capital raise such as BioTime (NYSEMKT: BTX) for approximately $26 M but, it is still all about positive clinical data that met or exceeded end points.

And, I have not heard much if any of that lately …

 

You’ve made it to the office, turned on the monitor, having just gotten your coffee and it hits you - what could be today’s trades? 

Watch list:

  • The iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology (IBB) is indicating a POSITIVE +0.08% in the aftermarket but, is NOT indicating Wednesday’s pre-market;
  • The SPDR S&P Biotech ETF (XBI) is indicated a POSITIVE +0.23% in the aftermarket but, is NOT indicating in Wednesday’s pre-market;
  • The Health Care Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLV) is indicating a POSITIVE +0.2% in the aftermarket but, is NOT indicating in Wednesday’s pre-open;
  • The iShares Russell 2000 (IWM) is indicating a POSITIVE +0.38% in Wednesday’s pre-open

 

 

Companies in my headlights:

Athersys (ATHX) closed down -$0.05 to $2.05 with 820.6 K shares traded after being down -$0.07 to $2.10 with 990.2 K shares traded <3 month average = 1.12 M shares>. ATHX had not communicated to shareholders that they agreed to settle their patent fight with Garnet Biotherapeutics and pay Garnet $500K and issue it 1M shares of common stock plus $250K in each of the next four quarters and it will deliver an additional 500K shares of stock. There are even MORE questions re their cash position but, how are they going to pay for the future – an offering? – Maintaining SELL;

bluebird bio (BLUE) closed up +$11.60 or +8.81% to $143.30 with 1.135 M shares traded <3 month average = 814.3 K shares>. Last week started out at $131.50, dropping to $125.45 on Wednesday and being up for three (3) sessions - $130.20, $131.70 and $143.30. The aftermarket indication is a negative -$1.10 or -0.78% – Maintaining SELL;

Capricor (CAPR) closed up +$0.10 with 681.1 K shares traded after being down -$0.08 to $2.38 with 481 K shares traded after Friday’s -$0.18 to $2.46 with 506.7 K shares traded after being up Thursday +$0.02 to $2.64 with 821 K shares traded, Wednesday’s +$0.16 or 6.50% to $2.62 with 1.2 M shares traded, closing down -$0.21 on Tuesday, -$0.19 and on last Monday <3 month average = 2.9 M shares>. I still think the HYPE is overplayed but, the numbers speak for themselves. Staying too long is harmful to your portfolio - Maintaining SELL;

MiMedx (MDXG) closed up +$0.31 to $13.82 after being up with 2.47 M shares after Monday traded+$0.31 to $13.51 with 2.74 M shares traded <3 month average =2.44 M shares>. MDXG has been notified by the FDA that it’s Investigational New Drug (IND) P2B clinical study for osteoarthritis of the knee may proceed. The clinical study consists of a P2B, prospective, double-blinded, randomized controlled trial of MDXG's AmnioFix® Injectable (micronized dehydrated Human Amnion Chorion Membrane), compared to saline placebo in the treatment of knee osteoarthritis. The trial will enroll approximately 318 patients and MDXG expects patient enrollment to commence in the next quarter. The pre-market indication is a positive +$0.23 or +1.7% - Maintaining BUY;

uniQure (QURE) closed down -$0.31 to $11.67 with 337.8 K shares traded <3 month average = 154.8 K shares>. QURE presented new pre-clinical data on AMT-130, its proprietary gene therapy candidate for the treatment of Huntington’s disease (HD), at the European Society of Gene and Cell Therapy (ESGCT) 25th Anniversary Congress in Berlin, Germany. Data from the study demonstrate that following administration of AMT-130 in Huntington’s disease mouse models, significant improvements in both motor-coordination and survival were observed, as well as a dose-dependent, sustained reduction in huntingtin protein. AMT-130 comprises an AAV5 vector carrying a DNA cassette encoding an engineered micro RNA (miHTT) that silences the human huntingtin protein. The pre-market indication is a positive +$0.13 or +1.11% - BUY;

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.