Indication intelligence, analysis and sector perception

RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: as I asked, what’s next to buffet the sector?

September 6, 2018 7:53am

After two trial misses, low volume and downside volatility …

Understand three things; a dice toss doesn’t always roll a seven, investing is also a wager and there is a time to take money off the table after steep inclines and as hazards exist

Pre-open indications: 3 BUYs and 4 SELLs

Out and about: Verastem Oncology (VSTM dosed the first patient in a multicenter P1/2 clinical trial at the Dana-Farber/Harvard Cancer Center of duvelisib in combination with venetoclax in patients with relapsed or refractory chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) or small lymphocytic lymphoma (SLL).

RMi provides a pre-market synopsis for the U.S. trading day.

I answer one question, in which company should investors put, keep and commit their money

Portfolio question, are you POSITIONED for September?

U.S. stock index futures are a multi-directional

Dow futures are UP +0.07% (+17 points) and NASDAQ futures are DOWN -0.00% (-0.25 points)

U.S. stock index futures indicated a flat open on Thursday as markets key on trade negotiations with Canada and key economic data,

European markets turn marginally higher but emerging market concerns persist,

Asia markets were largely down on Thursday after a sell-off in tech stocks in yesterday’s session

Data docket: ADP National Employment Report at 8:15 a.m. ET; jobless claims, labor productivity and costs at 8:30 a.m. ET; services purchasing managers' index (PMI) data at 9:45 a.m. ET; and ISM non-manufacturing data and factory orders at 10 a.m. ET.

Today’s indications:

The iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology (IBB) is NOT indicating in Thursday’s pre-market;
The SPDR S&P Biotech ETF (XBI) is NOT indicating in Thursday’s pre-market;
The Health Care Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLV) is indicating a +0.09% UPSIDE in Thursday’s pre-open;
The iShares Russell 2000 (IWM) is indicating a +0.07% UPSIDE in Thursday’s pre-open

Henry’omics:

I am ambivalent towards today’s upcoming session; although there are a few highs with strength that need to be sold into, some lows that could go lower and a few buys that need to be jumped-on!

Political views are going to be the basis of the day; what do we believe about President Thump; tariffs; trade wars and is there a real and tangible basis for writing the “op-ed”?

It will dominate the airways … and be the topic of more than many conversations taking the “notice” off the markets!

I always want to know what happened PRIOR to what might happen today – it sets a tone of consequence:

From Wednesday’s night’s newsletter: “should have, could have been reading about lightening the portfolio load”.

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB):

Wednesday was down -0.30%
Tuesday was down -0.97%
Monday was a holiday
Friday closed up +0.16%
Last Thursday closed up +0.39%
For a five session aggregate of -0.72% - could be taking another hit!

Of the 45 companies covered on Wednesday; 30 downside equities finished in a range of -0.24% (ONCE) to -72.56% (HSGX) while the 12 upside equities oscillated from +0.16% (BOLD) to +18.88% (VCEL) with 3 flat closes (BSTG, AST and AGTC).

In 2 sessions in September – 2 negative closes;
In 21 August sessions – 6 had negative and 15 positive closes

Companies in my headlights – It’s your decision; I provide the idea and context:

bluebird bio (BLUE) closed down -$3.55 to $161.40 and has a positive upside aftermarket indication of +$0.72 or +0.44% on low volume of 479 K shares traded <3 month average = 818.4 K shares>. August 30 saw a price of $176.00 and a low of $150.00 in the same month – OVERSOLD – BUY;

BioLife Solutions (BLFS) closed down -$3.31 to $20.14 and has an upside aftermarket indication of +$0.36 or +1.79% - OVERSOLD – BUY;

Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA) closed down -$0.68 to $30.06 and has a negative aftermarket indication of -$0.30 or -0.98%. NTLA has a 53 week change of 44.73%, there’s more room to profit before it dives further - SELL;

Editas Medicine (EDIT) closed down again -$0.80 to $32.00 after Tuesday’s -$0.03 to $32.80. EDIT in August was up +10.4% and has a 52 week upside of +66.58% and a short ratio of 12.38% or 5.59 M shares of 42.54 M “floating” shares. I have also been saying that EDIT has been overbought for months – Maintaining SELL;

Solid Biosciences (SLDB) closed down -$0.85 to $43.97 after Tuesday’s +$2.15 to $44.82 and has a negative aftermarket indication of -$0.07 or -0.16% - too much volatility on small volume. August 29^th saw a price of $38.12, in four (4) sessions – there is a premium of $5.85 or +13.3% and I don’t “like” the chart– Maintaining SELL;

Verastem Oncology (VSTM) closed down -$0.63 to $9.24. VSTM dosed the first patient in a multicenter P1/2 clinical trial at the Dana-Farber/Harvard Cancer Center of duvelisib in combination with venetoclax in patients with relapsed or refractory chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) or small lymphocytic lymphoma (SLL). The P1 primary objectives are to determine the maximum tolerated dose, as well as the recommended P2 dose of venetoclax for this combination regimen with duvelisib in patients with relapsed or refractory CLL/SLL. The P2’s primary objective is to determine the rate of complete response (CR) of the combination, as defined by the International Workshop on Chronic Lymphocytic Leukemia (IWCLL) 2008 criteria – BUY;

Vericel (VCEL) closed up +$2.20 to $13.85 after a potential competitor – Histogenics (HSGX) missed endpoints in its NeoCart product; which would have competed with VCEL’s MACI. A lot of volume (2.885 M shares traded <3 month average = 1.179 M shares>. August 20^th saw a pricing of $10.95, 8/30 saw $12.30 – I’d be “antsy” with this pricing. Also the end of Q3 is approaching and there is a “seasonality” issue with product sales and revenue. Lighten the “load/position” – SELL;

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.

35 companies, 1 interpreter!

Insight, foresight and recommendation

My motto … never leave an investor uninformed! I say today what others won’t, so you can do what others can’t.

My name is Henry McCusker; I endorse these opinions under my own name and with a subscription based membership.

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Editor and Publisher ... Henry McCusker enters his tenth (10th) year at RegMed Investors with past experience in sell-side analysis, buy-side management, corporate management and due diligence.

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The information included above as well as individual companies and/or securities mentioned should be construed as guidance in RMi reviews.

The facts stated and the opinions given in this publication are based on data and information considered to be reliable and have been carefully worked into my qualitative analyses and prognoses. However, no guarantee can be given as to their fairness, accuracy or completeness.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.