January 18, 2024 7:37am

Downslides are set-ups for potential opportunities (Q1/24: 2 holidays, 8 negative and 3 positive closes); I’d be BUYING some dips and then slip-away before earnings estimate/consensus debacles

Pre-open Indications: 3 Positive and 3 Negative Indications

Who is defining the metrics for investors and keeping you notified of the sector and market fluctuations?  What RMi provides is a trusted source of share pricing intelligence. Join me … in the NO spin zone!

Never leave an investor uninformed!

Remember that overnight action in a.m. futures and global markets doesn't necessarily translate into actual trading in the today’s market session.

I make a commitment to provide need-to-know “facts in evidence” as an equity’s volatility is one tactical signal for stocks. My thesis is important in trying to distinguish the temporary from real pricing digression or progression.

I also follow the dictum, quoting Churchill that “short words are best, and the old words when short are best of all.”

 

Thursday: The pre-open Dow futures are DOWN -0.03% or (-12 points), the S&P futures are UP +0.44% or (+21 points) as the Nasdaq futures are UP +0.80% (+135 points)

U.S. stock futures were mixed on Thursday morning,

European markets were mixed,

Asia Pacific markets mostly were down extending their losses while China rebounded

 

Henry’omics:

We need to more than consider the economic environment to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …

Wednesday: Indexes dived again … as the Dow closed DOWN -94.32 points or -0.25%, the S&P closed DOWN -26.74 points or -0.56% while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -88.72 points or -0.59%

Economic Data Docket: Weekly jobless claims post lowest reading since September 2022 … in weekly claims came an unexpected decline of 26,000. Initial filings for unemployment insurance totaled 187,000 for the week ended Jan. 13, the lowest level since Sept. 24, 2022. The total for continuing claims hit 1.806 million, below the FactSet estimate for 1.83 million.

As are housing starts and building permits data.

  • December housing starts, which measures the construction of new homes in the U.S., is expected to have dropped by a FactSet consensus estimate of 8.1% last month. That would be down from a rise of 14.8% the prior month.
  • Building permits, or the number of new housing units authorized in the U.S., is anticipated to have risen to a rate of 1.476 million units last month, according to a FactSet consensus estimate. That’s up from 1.467 million units previously.

Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic is also set to speak.

 

Wednesday, RegMed Investors (RMi) Closing Bell: “cell and gene therapy sector clings to newest bottoms. How low will it go after 8 negative and 3 positive closes so far in January 2024” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13289

 

Q1/24: 2 holidays, 8 negative and 3 positive closes

 

Companies in my headlights – It’s your decision; I provide ideas and context:

I post about “indication intelligence” devoting my time to collection and analysis of information to assist investors with insight into sector vulnerabilities and strengths. A dictionary definition of “indicate” refers to something less than a certainty; an indication could be a signal of being oversold or overbought, a recommendation, or grounds for inferring or a basis for believing.

Positive Indications:

Wednesday, Tuesday, Monday’s holiday, Friday and last Thursday’s closing “numbers” with aftermarket dollar ($) and cent ($0.00) value and percentage (%)

Blueprint Medicine (BPMC) closed down -$1.14 after Tuesday’s -$2.41 with a positive +$3.19 or +4.02% pre-open indication

REGENXBIO (RGNX) closed down -$1.11 after Tuesday’s +$0.14 with a positive +$0.09 or +0.64% pre-open indication on yesterday’s news of positive interim data for the treatment of wet age-related macular degeneration (wet AMD) using suprachoroidal delivery.

Verve Therapeutics (VERV) closed down -$0.16 with a positive +$0.12 or +0.97% pre-open indication.

 

Negative Indications:

Wednesday, Tuesday, Monday’s holiday, Friday and last Thursday’s closing “numbers” with aftermarket dollar ($) and cent ($0.00) value and percentage (%)

Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) closed up +$1.06 after Tuesday’s -$5.90, Monday’s holiday, Friday’s -$1.69 and last Thursday’s -$1.53 and the previous Wednesday’s -$1.59, with a negative -$5.57 or -2.96% pre-open indication.

Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS) closed down -$2.51 after Friday’s -$0.01, Thursday’s +$1.34, last Wednesday’s -$0.67, and the previous Tuesday’s +$0.56 with a negative -$0.02 or -0.04% pre-open indication

Sage Therapeutics (SAGE) closed up +$0.55 with a negative -$0.44 or -1.63% pre-open indication

 

The BOTTOM LINE: the cell and gene therapy sector has given-up some serious value and closed-down Wednesday with the newest lows.

  • Thursday’s open should split lower and I would be “tasting” some new buys since sector breadth has been definitively negative too LONG; it HAS to TURN!
  • Remember, buying opportunities will appear when the market is on a short-term upswing, only for those sector equities to fall back when the indexes fade.

 It’s now the 3nd week of 2024, we have eaten more value that even almost exceeded the last months of 2023.

  • Wednesday closed negative of 6 incliners, 29 decliners and 0 flat
  • (1/16) Tuesday closed negative with 8 incliners, 25 decliners and 1 flat
  • Monday was market holiday
  • (1/12) Friday closed negative with 13 incliners, 21 decliners and 1 flat
  • Thursday closed negative with 8 incliners, 26 decliners and 1 flat
  • Wednesday closed negative with 14 incliners, 21 decliners and 0 flat
  • Tuesday closed negative with 14 incliners, 18 decliners and 3 flats
  • (1/8) Monday closed positive with 28 incliners, 6 decliners and 1 flat
  • Friday closed negative with 12 incliners, 23 decliners and 0 flat
  • Thursday closed positive with 22 incliners, 12 decliners and 1 flat
  • Wednesday closed negative with 6 incliners, 29 decliners and 0 flat
  • (1/2) Tuesday closed positive with 21 incliners, 14 decliners and 0 flat

 

Coming attractions …Q4 and FY23 reporting season and “runways” will get measured as consensus and estimates will get missed!

  • During the session, the 10-year Treasury yield topped 4.1%.
  • For the next few weeks, if you're buying on weakness, you might be jumping onto a sinking ship even as … Q4 and FY23 earnings LPS (loss-per-share) are due even though some highlights were delivered to facilitate JPM presentations – there are consensus and beaten estimates to be reckoned!

Pricing for gene therapies will continue to dominate share ascensions and downfalls!

  • It's also a good idea to take some profits, especially if you didn't do so in past sessions. <IBD>

Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!

  • Right up front, “I also hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and facts are its product; I can always be WRONG but … I am mostly EARLY!”
  • The sector is what it is, until it isn’t and even then, it doesn’t seem to be… as NOT much changes as the sector’s share pricing rides the waves of volatility, algorithms, electronic trading and short covering.

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.  Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors could hold or have positions securities referred to in this publication and he will NOTIFY investors of holdings.