March 12, 2024 7:53am

The February reading of the consumer price index, which is set to be released at 8:30 a.m. ET. Economists forecast a monthly gain of +0.4% and a +3.1% increase on headline.

Earnings: Caribou Biosciences (CRBU) Q4/23 net loss of -$34.5 M or -$0.39 per share with a FY23 new loss of -$102.1 M or -$1.38 per share with a runway until Q1/26

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Remember that overnight and pre-open actions’ futures and global markets doesn't necessarily translate into actual trading in the today’s market session.

With a NO slight sigh of relief, I answer or qualify the sector’s equity’s movement; with an emphasis on which company is gaining or losing stride in their portfolio for the short-term

 

Tuesday: The pre-open Dow futures are UP +0.13% or (+51 points), the S&P futures are UP +0.40% or (+21 points) as the Nasdaq futures are UP +0.54% or (+96 points)

U.S. futures were mixed waiting for CPI on Tuesday,

European markets opened higher,

Asia Pacific markets were gained.

 

Henry’omics:

We need to more than consider the economic environment to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies.

Indexes closed mixed to start the week as the Dow closed UP +46.97 points or +0.12%, the S&P closed DOWN -5.75 points -0.11% while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -65.84 points or -0.41%.

Economic Data Docket:  Consumer Price Index (CPI) --- Inflation climbed 0.4%% in February and 3.2% year-over-year, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said on Tuesday. Economist polled by Dow Jones expected a 0.4% increase last month and 3.1% year-over-year, respectively. Core inflation, which strips out food and energy from the headline reading, climbed 0.4% in February, compared to a forecast gain of 0.3%.

  • NFIB Small Business Optimism, February (89.9 previously) CPI, month-over-month, February (+0.4% expected, +0.3% previously); Core CPI, month-over-month, February (+0.3% expected, +0.4% previously); CPI, year-over-year, February (+3.1% expected, +3.1% previously); Core CPI, year-over-year, February (+3.7% expected, +3.9% previously); Real average hourly earnings, year-over-year, February (+1.4% previously)

 

Monday’s night RegMed Investors (RMi) Closing Bell: “painful expectation, bracing for U.S. inflation data. News shapes bad share responses as indexes slip and sector dips.” …  https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13366

 

Q1/24: march – 2 positive and 5 negative closes

  • February – 1 market holiday, 11 positive and 9 negative closes
  • January: 2 holidays, 11 negative and 8 positive closes

 

Companies in my headlights – It’s your decision; I provide ideas and context:

I post about “indication intelligence” devoting my time to collection and analysis of information to assist investors with insight into sector vulnerabilities and strengths. A dictionary definition of “indicate” refers to something less than a certainty; an indication could be a signal of being oversold or overbought, a recommendation, or grounds for inferring or a basis for believing.

 

I am passing on forecasting the daily indications – the aftermarket is focused on the CPI, the aftermarket fluctuated as the pre-open waits for the all-clear alarm, on inflation-oriented CPI “numbers” …  it is still a mix of ups, downs and just unknowns …mixed of some ups, fewer downs and a flat

Although watch:

Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) closed down -$0.72 with a positive +$0.90 or +0.60% pre-open

CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) CLOSED DOWN -$2.10 after Friday’s -$0.45 with a positive +$0.52 or +0.68% pre-open

Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS) closed down -$0.73 after Friday’s -$0.68 with a positive +$0.14 or +0.32% pre-open

 

The BOTTOM LINE: investors, brace for more inflation data as February numbers of U.S. consumer prices.

  • On Feb. 13, the stock market fell hard on the January Consumer Price Index report; major indexes dropped in higher volume, a signature mark of pronounced professional selling.

According to Econoday, economists see the CPI index rising 3.1% year over year, matching the January increase. Core prices are expected to move 0.3% higher vs. January, slowing from 0.4% in January, and up 3.7% vs. a year ago vs. 3.9% last month.

 

March has had 2 positive and 5 negative cell and gene therapy sector closes:

  • (3/11) Monday closed with a negative close of 7 incliners, 28 decliners and 0 flat,
  • Friday closed with a negative close of 16 incliners, 19 decliners and 0 flat,
  • Thursday closed negative close of 16 incliners, 17 decliners and 2 flats
  • Wednesday closed positive with 21 incliners, 14 decliners and 0 flat,
  • Tuesday closed negative with 5 incliners, 29 decliners and 1 flat,
  • (3/4) Monday’s closed negative with 6 incliners, 27 decliners and 2 flats.
  • (3/1) Friday closed positive with 23 incliners, 10 decliners and 2 flats

 

The remainder of the month’s trading sessions will be critical as the RegMed sector continues earnings’ in LPS (loss-per-share) season, estimates and consensus which set market reaction and will report “runways” and those whose cash positions render their future questionable.

22 (of 35 covered companies) have reported …13 are left to release earnings of my covered group.

 

There is ALWAYS a however, the cell and gene therapy sector is DUE a rebound EVEN if it is due to algorithms and electronic trading RECOGNIZING risk and the oversold!!

I STILL reiterate, “Don't chase the cell and gene therapy sector.” Short and non-sweet: SELL into STRENGTH – accumulate some “powder” i.e., cash!

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From Monday’s market:

  • The Nasdaq briefly undercut 16,000 and slipped to a morning low of 15,978, but bounced to close at 16,019. It was down 0.4% for the day.
  • Volume fell on both exchanges versus Friday, indicating selling pressure eased. On the Nasdaq, turnover shrank more than 9% to 4.92 billion shares.
  • The Nasdaq composite briefly undercut 16,000 and slipped to a morning low of 15,978, but bounced to close at 16,019. It was down 0.4% for the day.
  • U.S. Treasury yields edged up ahead of the data, with the benchmark U.S. 10-year notes up 1 basis point at 4.098%, from 4.088% late on Friday. The 2-year note yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations, rose 5 basis points to 4.536%.

Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!

  • Right up front, “I also hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and facts are its product; I can always be WRONG but … I am mostly EARLY!”
  • The sector is what it is, until it isn’t and even then, it doesn’t seem to be… as NOT much changes as the sector’s share pricing rides the waves of volatility, algorithms, electronic trading and short covering.

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.  Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors could hold or have positions securities referred to in this publication and he will NOTIFY investors of holdings.