November 6, 2023 7:05am

Fumes don’t keep an engine running hot and forward

Earnings: Cellectis SA (CLLS)

Pre-Open Indications: 4 Sell into Strength, 1 Positive and 2 Negative Indications

I support Israel, mind, body and spirit

Never leave an investor uninformed!

Remember that overnight and pre-open actions in futures don't necessarily translate into actual trading in the coming day’s session. My interpretation of the morning’s numbers is written to be informative; it’s built on what could happen or materialize

 

NEWS: Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM +$0.03 pre-open) updated data from the OPTIC extension study of patients with wet AMD. Patients OPTIC continue to experience long-term benefit from Ixo-vec through 3 years of follow-up, including maintenance of vision, durability of anatomical improvements and sustained reduction in anti-VEGF treatment burden. REGENXBIO (RGNX +$0.31 aftermarket) positive data from the ongoing Phase II ALTITUDE® trial of ABBV-RGX-314 for the treatment of diabetic retinopathy (DR) without center-involved diabetic macular edema (CI-DME) using in-office suprachoroidal delivery.

 

Pre-open Dow futures are UP +0.07% or (+25 points), the S&P is UP +0.19% or (+8 points) as the Nasdaq is UP +0.24% or (+36 points)

U.S. equity futures were slightly higher on Monday,

European markets were mixed,

Asia Pacific markets edged higher.

 

Henry’omics:

We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …

Friday, indexes closed up after a soft jobs report drove bond yields lower to cap the stock market’s best week in 2023 with the Dow closing UP +222.24 points or +0.66%, the S&P closed UP +40.56 points or +0.94% while the Nasdaq closed UP +184.09 points or +1.38%.

Economic Data Docket: all quiet on the economic front

 

Friday’s closing bell: “are the unknowns known? Not quite, as the sector and market burnishes a weird paradox of moving parts>” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13193

 

Ebb and flow:

Q4: November – 3 positive closes

·         October – 1 sick day, 9 positive and 12 negative closes

 

Companies in my headlights – It’s your decision; I provide ideas and context: looking for lost SHEAP …

I post about “indication intelligence” devoting my time to collection and analysis of information to assist investors with insight into sector vulnerabilities and strengths. A dictionary definition of “indicate” refers to something less than a certainty; an indication could be a signal of being oversold or overbought, a recommendation, or grounds for inferring or a basis for believing.

Negative Indications:

Friday’s closing price, some Thursday Wednesday, Tuesday’s closing “numbers” with aftermarket dollar ($) and cent ($0.00) value and percentage (%)

Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS) closed up +$3.46 after Thursday’s -$1.53 after Wednesday’s +$0.99 and Tuesday’s +$0.27 with a negative -$0.15 or -0.32% aftermarket (Friday) indication

Verve Therapeutics (VERV) closed up +$1.65 after Thursday’s +$1.65, Thursday’s +$2.18 after Wednesday’s -$0.29 and Tuesday’s +$2.63 with a negative -$0.01 or -0.06% pre-open indication.

 

Sell into Strength Indications:

Friday’s closing price, some Thursday Wednesday, Tuesday’s closing “numbers” with aftermarket dollar ($) and cent ($0.00) value and percentage (%)

CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) closed up +$4.81 after Thursday’s +$2.43, Wednesday’s +$4.82 and Tuesday’s $0.00 with a positive +$3.32 or +6.51% pre-open indication

Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA) closed up +$2.28 after Thursday’s +$0.98, Wednesday’s +$0.45 with a positive +$0.49 or +1,70% pre-open indication

Vericel (VCEL) closed up +$1.33 after Thursday’s +$0.53, Wednesday’s -$0.18 after Tuesday’s +$0.80 with a neutral $%0.00 pre-open indication.

REGENXBIO (RGNX) closed up +$1.14 with a positive +$0.31 or +2.02% aftermarket indication with late Friday news.

 

Positive Indications:

Friday’s closing price, Thursday closing “number” with aftermarket dollar ($) and cent ($0.00) value and percentage (%)

Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM) closed down -$0.03 on Friday with a positive +$0.03 pre-open indication with news of updated data from the OPTIC extension study of patients with wet AMD.

 

The BOTTOM LINE: Take advantage of the sector rally and SELL into Strength …

A cash build-up could be portfolio healthy, letting some upsiders exhale!

  • Last week, indexes notched sizable weekly gains as investors grew hopeful that the Fed’s rate-hiking seems to be over. The Dow was up in its best week since October 2022. The S&P 500 was higher notching its first five-day advance since June. The Nasdaq gained more than 6%.
  • The small-cap Russell 2000 vaulted 7.6%, its best week in three years after tumbling to a three-year low.

November Market:

  • 11/3 - the Nasdaq closed UP +184.09 points or +1.38%
  • 11/2 - the Nasdaq closed UP +232.72 points or +1.78%
  • 11/1 - the Nasdaq closed UP +210.23 points or +1.64%

November’s Cel ad Gene Therapy Sector:

  • Friday’s advance/decline ended with a positive close of 28 incliners, 6 decliners and 1 flat
  • Thursday’s advance/decline line ended with a positive close of 23 incliners, 9 decliners and 3 flats
  • Wednesday’s advance/decline line ended with a positive close of 18 incliners, 16 decliners and 1 flat

While a bevy of sector earnings await this week: as earnings season hasn't served as much of a sector catalyst in recent weeks

  • Agenus (AGEN), AxoGen (AXGN), bluebird bio (BLUE) and Sage Therapeutics (SAGE) 11/7 Tuesday
  • Fate Therapeutics (FATE), Regenxbio (RGNX) and Vericel (VCEL) 11/8 Wednesday
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA) 11/9 Thursday

 

I follow the dictum, quoting Churchill that “short words are best, and the old words when short are best of all.”

An appropriate quote: "While we continue to view the medium term as challenged in light of earnings uncertainty, troubling geopolitics and the potential for recession, the rationale for remaining hedged in the here and now no longer applies." <Evercore ISI senior managing director Julian Emanuel>

 

Today’s relevancy from Friday’s session and the week’s ending perspective:

  • Forecasting short-term directional movements in the stock market with percentage (%) accuracy is impossible!
  • Investors should be very cautious, largely building cash!

Economic Data:

  • Tuesday - Trade balance, September (-$60.5 billion expected, -$58.3 billion previously)
  • Wednesday - MBA mortgage applications, November 3 (-2.1% previously); Wholesale inventories month-over-month, September (0% previously)
  • Thursday - Initial jobless claims, week ended Nov. 4 (218,000 expected, 217,000 previously)
  • Friday - University of Michigan consumer sentiment, November preliminary (64.0 expected, 63.8 previously)

What the sector patterns and markets are telling me:

  • An aftermarket that reeks of know unknows
  • A sentiment factor driven by algorithms and electronic trading,
  • Remember, the closer we get to earnings releases <LPS or loss per share sweepstakes> the leaner gains or expressive losses are going to be!
  • The ongoing Israel-Hamas war has raised questions of a potential oil supply crunch and a resulting rise in fuel prices if the geopolitical instability spreads to neighboring oil producers in the region.

 

I hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and facts are its product; I am more frequently right than consequentially wrong but, I am mostly EARLY!

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.  Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors could hold or have positions securities referred to in this publication and he will NOTIFY investors of holdings.