February 14, 2024 4:28pm

An expression of joy as sector rebounds from Tuesday’s CPI induced abyss fall

Pre-open Indications: 3 Hits

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Today is the perfect example of the sector being what it is, until it isn’t and even then, it doesn’t seem to be … that is after taking a deep breath and holding it

I write this blog/newsletter to inform investors with facts and supporting numbers focused on what they need to hear that others will not say or write about - truth! 

 

Wednesday: The Dow closed UP +151.52 points or +0.40%, the S&P closed UP +47.45 points +0.96% while the Nasdaq closed UP +203.55 points or +1.30%

 

Henry’omics:

We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …

Indexes rose Wednesday clawing-back some of Tuesday’s steep losses suffered.

Volume was lower on the Nasdaq compared with the same time on Tuesday. But participation showed strength, as advancers beat decliners by 3-to-1 on the Nasdaq.

 

Wednesday’s RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: “earnings’ reality check. A double-edged sword for investors; with warning signals of LPS (loss-per-share) mania.” …  https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13329

 

Pre-open Indications: x Hits: <Caribou Biosciences (CRBU +$0.33), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$6.28), Sage Therapeutics (SAGE +$2.75)> 0 Miss

 

Advance/Decline (A/D) Line:

  • Wednesday’s advance/decline line at the open was positive with 28 incliner, 6 decliners and 1 flat; ending with a positive close of 31 incliners, 3 decliners and 1 flat

 

Ebb and flow of MY covered sector cell and gene therapy session daily “endings”:

Q1/24: February, 4 negative and 6 positive closes

  • January: 2 holiday, 12 negative and 8 positive closes

 

Key Metrics:

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

  • Wednesday, the IBB was up +1.89% and the XBI was up +2.78%

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

  • Wednesday was down -1.40 point or -8.83% at 14.45

 

Wednesday’s Closing Down (3 of 3):

  • Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM -$0.19 after Tuesday’s +$0.30),
  • uniQure NV (QURE -$0.03),
  • Homology Medicine (FIXX -$0.0017 after Tuesday’s +$0.0127 and Monday’s -$0.0017),

Flat (1):

  • Harvard Apparatus GN (HRGN)

Wednesday’s Closing Up (10 of 31):

  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$6.26 after Tuesday’s -$3.66 and Monday’s +$6.43),
  • Blueprint Medicine (BPMC +$3.63 after Tuesday’s -$4.37 and Monday’s +$1.00
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE +$2.73),
  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$2.15 after Tuesday’s -$7.34 and Monday’s -$0.69),
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$1.81 after Tuesday’s -$3.16 and Monday’s +$1.38
  • Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE +$1.68 and Tuesday’s -$2.76),
  • Vericel (VCEL +$1.61 after Tuesday’s -$1.47 and Monday’s +$0.64),
  • Beam Therapeutics (BEAM +$1.31 after Tuesday’s -$3.42 and Monday’s +$4.35)
  • Solid Biosciences (SLDB +$1.30),
  • Regenxbio (RGNX +$0.75 after Tuesday’s -$1.32 and Monday’s +$1.15

 

Q1/24 – February

  • Wednesday closed positive with 31 incliners, 3 decliners and 1 flat

 

The BOTTOM LINE: Rebound, rally and ricochet … as the cell and gene therapy sector jumped higher in volatile trading on Wednesday after a selloff in the prior session on a hot inflation report,

It is also the beginning of earnings’ week – 2 today– SAGE and BPMC

  • Small caps continued to add to early gains.
  • The Russell 2000 rose 2.3% while the Innovator IBD 50 (FFTY) exchange traded fund outperformed with a 2.7% gain.
  • The SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) ETF was up 0.6%, mirroring the S&P.
  • The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note fell 5 basis points to 4.26%, which appeared to aid stocks.

 

For once, a 52-week high:

  • Solid Biosciences (SLDB) at $9.17

 

Coming for Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) … earnings’ whispers …

  • The upcoming report from Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) is expected to reveal quarterly loss of $1.20 per share, indicating an increase of 28.6% compared to the year-ago period. Analysts forecast revenues of $443.97 million, representing an increase of 32.5% year over year.
  • The average prediction of analyst’s places 'Product revenues, net' at $339.00 million. The estimate indicates a year-over-year change of +29.6%.
  • The collective assessment of analysts points to an estimated 'Net revenues from research collaborators' of $98.87 million. The estimate suggests a change of +40%
  • Over the past month, ALNY shares have recorded returns of -12.1% <from ZACKS>

CRISPR Therapeutics AG (CRSP) … earnings’ whispers

  • is expected to deliver a year-over-year increase ….
  • In earnings on higher revenues when it reports results for the quarter ended December 2023.
  • Revenues are expected to be $138.09 million, up 1380800% from the year-ago quarter.
  • For the last reported quarter, it was expected that CRISPR Therapeutics AG would post a loss of $1.98 per share when it actually produced a loss of $1.41, delivering a surprise of +28.79%. <ZACKS>

Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS) … earnings whispers

  • Expected to post quarterly loss of $0.78 per share in its upcoming report, which represents a year-over-year change of -110.8%.
  • Revenues are expected to be $183.6 million, up 20.8% from the year-ago quarter.
  • The consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has been revised 12.59% lower over the last 30 days to the current level.
  • For the last reported quarter, it was expected that Ionis Pharmaceuticals would post a loss of $1.01 per share when it actually produced a loss of $1.03, delivering a surprise of -1.98%.
  • Over the last four quarters, the company has beaten consensus EPS estimates three times. <ZACKS>

 

The Harvard Apparatus RN (HRGN) formerly the Biostage (BSTG) Chronicles: shows how the “pimp/pump and promote” works …

HRGN closed flat+$0.00 with 1,182 shares traded after Tuesday’s (down) -$0.43 with 1.961 shares traded following Monday’s -$0.02 with 5,850 shares traded <3-month average = 1,390 shares)

  • Did you notice how it barely trades unless volume is “pump” – is it by DST Capital, run by the president of HRGN, Hong Yu and Mrs. Mrs. bin Zhao of Weston, Mass – funded by Lui Dong Hai, chairman of Dixintong Technology Group (D. Phone, the largest smartphone retailer in China) the husband of Mrs. bin Zhao??
  • This question needs to be answered as the NEED to desperately finance by private placement – past Chinese investors must be feeling … WHAT?

Making promises to Chinese investors, management can't keep isn't a real strategy, especially when you're asking for money!

 

Reiterating … again, “the cell and gene therapy sector continues to “recalibrate” its share pricing expectations and I don't think this … adjustment is completely over.”

  • Earnings and guidance are beginning as Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) and Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE) on 2/15 announcing Q4 and FY23 which WILL be crucial to continue downside force in the sector as history has taught us i.e., investors.

The top three (3) performing in the session:

  • Wednesday: CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP), Blueprint Medicine (BLMC) and Sage Therapeutics (SAGE)
  • Tuesday: Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM) and Homology Medicine (FIXX)
  • Monday: CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP), Beam Therapeutics (BEAM) and Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA)

The worst three (3) in the session:  

  • Wednesday: Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM), uniQure NV (QURE) and Homology Medicine (FIXX)
  • Tuesday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Blueprint Medicine (BLMC) and CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP)
  • Monday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS) and Graphite Bio (GRPH)

Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!

  • Right up front, “I also hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and facts are its product.
  • I can always be WRONG but … I am mostly EARLY!”

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. Whether information or intelligence is good, bad, or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor, and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication. Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities.

I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.