April 28, 2020 6:02pm

It’s about selling into strengths as the sector peaks and squeaks as sustainability is not a trend or friend

Pre-open indications: 8  HITs < bluebird bio (BLUE -$4.17), ReNeuron (RENE.L -$5.00), Cellectis SA (CLLS +$0.08), Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT +$1.01), Pluristem (PSTI +$0.15), uniQure NA (QURE -$1.03), Regenxbio (RGNX -$2.40), Sage Therapeutics (SAGE -$0.65)  ()> and 4 MISS < Mesoblast (MESO -$1.52), Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$1.17), Editas Medicine (EDIT -$0.83), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$2.48)>

An “intelligence newspaper” for smart investing in the RegMed, gene and cell therapy sector.  Check the BOTTOM LINE <read more>

The Dow closed DOWN -32.23 points (-0.13%), the S&P closed DOWN -15.09 points (-0.57%) while the NASDAQ closed DOWN -122.43 points (-1.40%)

 

Henry’omics:

The U.S. stock market suffered from a volatility virus on Tuesday morning, fluctuating negative to positive as benchmarks were weighed by declines in shares of health-care names …

As shares of Pharma/healthcare giants, Johnson & Johnson (JNJ -1.88%), UnitedHealth Group (UNH -1.91%) and Merck & Co. (MRK -3.33%) were the biggest drags.

Although, over the past week, the major averages are all up more than 4%.

Sector equities also gave back yesterday’s gains as a decline in RegMed/cell and gene therapy shares were offset by the need-for-speed and prospect of states reopening life as we knew it.

Sector volume was also LOW as 0 of the 7-downside as compared to 6 of the 29-downside also reflecting the LOW change percentage (%) of the 7-upside were +0.61% (CLLS) to +4.61% (AXGN) while the 28-downside ranged from -0.49% (BCLI) to -13.1% (MESO).<comparisons are reflected below> 

Hammered from today’s market declines are sector “participants”:

  • ReNeuron (RENE.L -$5.00); Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$5.20); Ultragenyx (RARE -$5.27); bluebird bio (BLUE -$4.17); Fate Therapeutics (FATE -$2.23) and CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$2.48)

Jumping in a declining sector:

  • Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT +$1.01); Caladrius Biosciences (CLBS -$0.05); Vericel (VCEL +$0.55); AxoGen (AXGN +$0.40); Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR +$0.10) and Pluristem (PSTI +$0.15)  

 

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

  • Tuesday, the IBB closed down -2.13% and XBI also closed down -3.09%
  • Monday, the IBB closed up +1.07% and XBI also closed up +1.34%
  • Friday, the IBB closed UP +2.42% and XBI also closed up +3.44%

 

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

  • Tuesday was up +0.28 points or +0.84% at 33.57,
  • Monday was down -2.84 points or -7.88% at 33.10,
  • Friday was down -5.45 points or -13.17% at 35.93,

 

RegMed/Cell and gene therapy 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: progressions and regressions …

  • Tuesday opened negative at 12/23, stayed negative at the mid-day at 7/27 and 1 flat and closed negative at 7/28;
  • Monday opened negative at 23/9 and 3 flats, strayed positive at the mid-day at 25/8 and 2 flats and closed positive at 22/11 and 2 flats;
  • Friday opened positive at 21/10 and 3 flats, stayed positive at the mid-day at 25/10 to closed positive at 29/6;

 

Tuesday’s (only 7) incliners:

  • Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT +$1.01 after Monday’s -$2.73, Friday’s +$8.51, Thursday’s -$0.56 and Wednesday’s -$0.37);
  • Vericel (VCEL +$0.55 after Monday’s +$0.43);
  • AxoGen (AXGN +$0.40);
  • Pluristem (PSTI +$0.15 after Monday’s -$1.75, Friday’s +$2.07 and Thursday’s +$1.37,
  • Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR +$0.10);
  • Cellectis SA (CLLS +$0.08 after Monday’s +$1.08, Friday’s -$0.60 and Thursday’s -$0.34);
  • Biostage (BSTG +$0.05);

Tuesday’s (bottom 10) decliners:

  • Ultragenyx (RARE -$5.27 after Monday’s +$2.74 and Friday’s +$1.66);
  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$5.20 after Monday’s -$2.93, Friday’s +$3.99, Thursday’s +$1.53, Wednesday’s +$2.26 and last Tuesday’s -$7.02;
  • ReNeuron (RENE.L -$5.00 after Monday’s +$15.00, Friday’s +$2.50, Thursday’s +$5.00, Wednesday’s +$1.00 and last Tuesday’s -$7.00;
  • bluebird bio (BLUE -$4.17 after Monday’s +$2.94, Friday’s +$4.67 and Thursday’s -$1.67);
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$2.48 after Monday’s +$0.99 after Friday’s +$1.53);
  • Regenxbio (RGNX -$2.40 after Monday’s +$1.68, Friday’s +$2.88, Thursday’s +$0.88 and Wednesday’s +$1.80);
  • Fate Therapeutics (FATE -$2.23 after Monday’s -$0.47);
  • Mesoblast (MESO -$1.52 after Monday’s -$3.86 after Friday’s +$9.00);
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$1.17 after Monday’s +$0.40);
  • uniQure NV (QURE -$1.03 after Monday’s +$2.36, Friday’s +$5.11 on acquisition rumors after Thursday’s +$0.57 and last Wednesday’s -$0.67);

 

Percentage (%) movement/range statistics: look closely …

  • Tuesday’s % of the 7-upside were +0.61% (CLLS) to +4.61% (AXGN) while the 28-downside ranged from -0.49% (BCLI) to -13.1% (MESO); 
  • Monday’s % of the 22-upside were +0.40% (IONS) to +12.44% (SLDB) while the 11-downside ranged from -0.38% (FIXX) to -49.03% (VSTM); 
  • Friday’s % of the 29-upside were +0.52% (AGTC) to +139.53% (MESO) while the 6-downside ranged from -0.88% (SLDB) to -4.74% (CLLS); 

 

Sentiment and a few daily indicators:

  • From this morning’s “Data Docket”: U.S. home price growth continued to accelerate before the coronavirus forced states to order shelter-in-place. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller national home price index posted a 4.2% annual gain in February, up from 3.9% a month earlier. The results beat estimates of a 4.1% gain.
  • Oil prices seesawed in another volatile session. The June contract for West Texas Intermediate was down more than 1% at $12.63 per barrel after trading slightly higher earlier on Tuesday. To be sure, WTI briefly fell more than 20%.
  • A partial reopening of the economy — in Alaska, Georgia, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, and others — boosted investor sentiment, with certain U.S. businesses poised to benefit from the first wave of consumers emerging from the coronavirus driven quarantine.

Defining pandemic disruption: The number of confirmed U.S. coronavirus cases: every day I get sadder as I post these numbers …

  • Tuesday’s 988,400
  • Monday’s 972,900,
  • Friday’s 870,400

Tuesday’s death rate escalated to 56,253 following Monday’s 55,118 after Friday’s 50,031 <John Hopkins University>

 

Upside volume stats: 

  • Tuesday: 0 out of the 7-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Monday: 10 out of the 22-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Friday: 10 out of the 29-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;

Downside volume stats:

  • Tuesday: 6 out of the 28-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Monday: 5 out of the 11-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Friday: 1 out of the 6-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;

Closing flat: 0

 

April - review the patterns

Tuesday closed negative with 28 decliners, 7 advancer and 0 flat

Friday closed positive with 6 decliners, 29 advancer and 0 flat

Thursday closed negative with 19 decliners, 16 advancer and 0 flat

Wednesday closed positive with 6 decliners, 29 advancer and 0 flat

Tuesday closed negative with 32 decliners, 3 advancer and 0 flat

Monday closed positive with 10 decliners, 30 advancer and 0 flat

Friday closed positive with 6 decliners, 29 advancer and 0 flat

Thursday closed negative with 20 decliners, 14 advancer and 1 flat

Wednesday closed negative with 29 decliners, 6 advancer and 0 flats

Tuesday closed positive with 4 decliners, 31 advancer and 0 flats -10

Monday closed negative with 19 decliners, 16 advancer and 0 flats

Friday was a market holiday

Thursday closed positive with 7 decliners, 28 advancer and 0 flat

Wednesday closed positive with 4 decliners, 30 advancer and 1 flat

Tuesday closed negative with 18 decliners, 17 advancer and 0 flats

Monday closed positive with 2 decliners, 33 advancer and 0 flats

Friday closed negative with 23 decliners, 12 advancer and 0 flats

Thursday closed positive with 10 decliners, 23 advancer and 2 flats

Wednesday (4/1) closed negative with 31 decliners, 4 advancer and 0 flat

 

The BOTTOM LINE: I am still concerned with testing’s reliability to recognize and reduce infection as businesses seek to re-open …

Quoting others who also say it better than I:

  • DoubleLine CEO Jeffrey Gundlach (hedge fund), “people don’t understand the magnitude of ... the social unease at least that’s going to happen when ... 26 million-plus people have lost their job”
  • Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said the U.S. could be in for a “bad fall” season if an effective treatment for the coronavirus is not found by then. He noted the virus is “not going to disappear from the planet.”

As I stated in the pre-open, “volatility sketches a contradictory picture of the short-term; when did you last trust a rally to be sustainable?” The irregular pattern of 2 ups, 1 down, 1 up, 1 down following 1 down leads me to reflect upon indication analysis to provide a possible warning to … SOME … share pricings.”

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.