February 23, 2024 5:03pm

Trading is re-calibrating expectation as upside profit taking surges even as my sector group closes positive

Pre-open Indications: 4 Hits and 2 Miss

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The Harvard Apparatus RT (OTCQB: HRGN) Chronicles: "the pimp, pump and promote share pricing" has NO bounds <In Bottom Line>

The week in review

 

One can take a good or bad feeling, re-frame it, and suddenly that feeling is the solution. Not me, I don’t run from any feeling but, take that sensation itself as a sharpened stick to “poke’ mainstream thinking.

I write this blog/newsletter to inform investors with facts and supporting numbers focused on what they need to hear that others will not say or write about – facts in evidence! 

Reiterating … again, “the cell and gene therapy sector continues to “recalibrate” its share pricing expectations and I do NOT think this adjustment is completely over.”

 

Friday: The Dow closed UP +62.42 points or +0.16%, the S&P closed UP +1.77 points +0.03% while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -44.80 points or -0.28%

Thursday: The Dow closed UP +456.87 points or +1.18%, the S&P closed UP +105.23 points +2.11% while the Nasdaq closed UP +460.75 points or +2.96%

Wednesday: The Dow closed UP +48.44 points or +0.13%, the S&P closed UP +6.29 points +0.13% while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -49.91 points or -0.31%

Tuesday: The Dow closed DOWN -64.19 points or -0.17%, the S&P closed DOWN -30.06 points -0.60% while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -144.87 points or -0.92%

Monday: was a market holiday

 

Henry’omics:

We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …

Friday indexes closed mixed as the Nasdaq slipped, as all three major averages had a winning week: with the S&P 500 advancing +1.66%, while the Nasdaq gained +1.4% and the Dow is up 1.3%.

 

Friday’s RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: “caution and watch-out for re-calibrations. Near Thursday’s close, I noticed many sector equities were pulling back as traders started consolidating gains” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13342

 

Pre-open indications: 4 Hits < Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$5.16), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$2.20), Editas Medicine (EDIT -$0.12), Blueprint Medicine (BPMC +$3.49)> 2 Miss < Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE +$0.60), Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR +$0.47)>

 

Advance/Decline (A/D) Line:

  • Friday’s advance/decline line at the open was negative with 10 incliner, 23 decliners and 2 flats; ending with a positive close of 22 incliners, 13 decliners and 0 flats
  • Thursday’s advance/decline line at the open was positive with 17 incliner, 15 decliners and 3 flats; ending with a positive close of 26 incliners, 9 decliners and 0 flats
  • Wednesday’s advance/decline line at the open was negative with 7 incliner, 26 decliners and 2 flats; ending with a negative close of 18 incliners, 15 decliners and 2 flats
  • Tuesday’s advance/decline line at the open was negative with 16 incliner, 19 decliners and 0 flats; ending with a negative close of 10 incliners, 24 decliners and 1 flat
  • Monday was a market holiday

 

Ebb and flow of MY covered sector cell and gene therapy session daily “endings”:

Q1/24: February, 1 holiday, 7 negative and 9 positive closes

  • January: 2 holiday, 12 negative and 8 positive closes

 

Key Metrics:

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

  • Friday, the IBB was up +0.74% and the XBI was up +0.64%
  • Thursday, the IBB was up +1.41% and the XBI was up +1.84%
  • Wednesday, the IBB was up +0.29% and the XBI was up +0.10%
  • Tuesday, the IBB was down -0.63% and the XBI was down -0.83%
  • Monday was a market holiday

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

  • Friday was down -0.79 point or -5.43% at 13.75
  • Thursday was down -0.83 point or -5.41% at 14.51
  • Tuesday was up +0.64 point or +4.35% at 15.35
  • Wednesday was down -0.15 point or -0.97% at 15.27
  • Tuesday was up +0.64 point or +4.35% at 15.35
  • Monday was a market holiday

 

Friday’s Closing Down (10 of 13):

  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$5.16 after Thursday’s +$8.07, Wednesday’s +$5.05 and Tuesday’s +$2.69)
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$2.20 after Thursday’s +$3.78, Wednesday’s +$3.68 and Tuesday’s -$3.49),
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$1.08 after Thursday’s +$0.30, Wednesday’s -$0.27 and Tuesday’s -$0.59),
  • Regenxbio (RGNX -$0.76 after Thursday’s -$0.23 after Wednesday’s -$0.14 after Tuesday’s -$0.29),
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS -$0.29 after Thursday’s +$0.29 after Wednesday’s -$0.09),
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE -$0.24),
  • Prime Medicine (PRME -$0.13 after Thursday’s -$0.04 after Wednesday’s +$0.46 and Tuesday’s -$0.43),
  • Editas Medicine (EDIT -$0.12 after Thursday’s -$0.08),
  • Cellectis SA (CLLS -$0.10),
  • Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM -$0.10 after Thursday’s +$0.13)

Friday’s Closing Up (10 of 22):

  • Blueprint Medicine (BPMC +$3.49 after Thursday’s -$1.26, Wednesday’s -$3.99 and Tuesday’s +$0.99
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS +$1.38 after Thursday’s +$0.45 and Wednesday’s -$0.82),
  • Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE +$0.60 after Thursday’s +$0.70, Wednesday’s +$0.31 and Tuesday’s -$1.05),
  • Solid Biosciences (SLDB +$0.50 after Thursday’s -$0.53, Wednesday’s -$0.06 and Tuesday’s +$0.08
  • Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR +$0.47),
  • Beam Therapeutics (BEAM +$0.45 and Thursday’s +$1.78),
  • AxoGen (AXGN +$0.14),
  • Verve Therapeutics (VERV +$0.13 after Thursday’s +$0.19 and Wednesday’s +$0.07),
  • Compass Therapeutics (CMPX +$0.09 after Thursday’s -$0.10 and Wednesday’s -$0.05),
  • Fate Therapeutics (FATE +$0.08),

 

Q1/24 – February

  • Friday closed positive with 22 incliners, 13 decliners and x0flats
  • Thursday closed positive with 26 incliners, 9 decliners and 0 flat
  • Wednesday closed positive with 18 incliners, 15 decliners and 2 flats
  • Tuesday closed negative with 10 incliners, 24 decliners and 1 flat
  • Monday was a market holiday

 

The BOTTOM LINE: The cell and gene therapy sector on Friday after a slow start edged to a positive close after ascending on Thursday after Wednesday’s barely positive following Tuesday’s negative close and Monday’s holiday following a negative close on the previous Friday.

  • Earnings, net losses, and per-share losses, runways and guidance have begun Q4 and FY23 which WILL be crucial to continue downside force in the sector as history has taught us i.e., investors.

 

I have seen 1 net income for the Q4 (but a FY23 loss) – CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP).

  • 7 have reported … NTLA, CRSP, IONS, SAGE, RARE, BPMC and ALNY.
  • Next week: Tuesday -RGNX, Wednesday – MDXG, EDIT, VYGR and Thursday - BLFS

RegMed Investors (RMi) - Q4/23 & FY23 Cell and Gene Therapy Earnings Scorecard Results https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/11628

 

Quotes to ponder: "This is much more of puts and takes of what's been a very solid week and folks thinking about how they want to be positioned going out over the weekend." <Art Hogan, chief market strategist at B Riley Wealth>

 

I ALSO reiterate, “Don't chase the cell and gene therapy sector, especially with the Nasdaq extended.”

Short and non-sweet: SELL into STRENGTH – accumulate some “powder” i.e., cash!

 

Beam Therapeutics (BEAM) … earnings’ whisper

  • Beam Therapeutics Inc. (BEAM) is expected to deliver a year-over-year decline in earnings on lower revenues when it reports results for the quarter ended December 2023.
  • Expected to post quarterly loss of $1.15 per share in its upcoming report, which represents a year-over-year change of -113%.
  • Revenues are expected to be $16.92 million, down 15.6% from the year-ago quarter.
  • Earnings ESP of -3.99%.

Vericel (VCEL) … earnings whisper

  • Vericel Corporation (VCEL) is expected to deliver a year-over-year increase in earnings on higher revenues when it reports results for the quarter ended December 2023.
  • Expected to post quarterly earnings of $0.18 per share in its upcoming report, which represents a year-over-year change of +50%.
  • Revenues are expected to be $65 million, up 23.4% from the year-ago quarter. <ZACKS>

Fate Therapeutics (FATE) … earnings whispers

  • FATE is expected to post quarterly loss of $0.57 per share in its upcoming report, which represents a year-over-year change of +1.7%. Revenues are expected to be $0.85 million, down 98.1% from the year-ago quarter. <ZACKS>

 

The top three (3) performing in the session:

  • Friday: Blueprint Medicine (BLMC), Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS) and Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE)
  • Thursday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) and Beam Therapeutics (BEAM)
  • Wednesday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) and Prime Medicine (PRME)
  • Tuesday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Blueprint Medicine (BPMC) and uniQure NV (QURE)
  • Monday: a market holiday

The worst three (3) in the session:  

  • Friday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) and Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA)
  • Thursday:  Blueprint Medicine (BLMC), Solid Biosciences (SLDB) and Regenxbio (RGNX),
  • Wednesday: Blueprint Medicine (BLMC), Vericel (VCEL) and Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS)
  • Tuesday: CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP), Beam Therapeutics (BEAM) and Sage Therapeutics (SAGE)
  • Monday: a market holiday,

 

The Harvard Apparatus RT (OTC QB HRGN) formerly the Biostage (BSTG) Chronicles: shows how the “pimp/pump and promote” works …my treatise is VALIDATED!

  • Friday closed up +$0.0625 with 8,114 shares traded <aver 3-mo = 2,186>
  • Thursday closed up +$0.0075 with 15,907 shares traded
  • Wednesday close down -$0.02 with 1,106 shares traded,
  • Tuesday closed up +$0.24 with 24,963 shares traded <3-month average = 1,545 shares> WOW, if this doesn’t prove my point – nothing will!!
  • Monday was market holiday

Did you notice how it barely trades unless volume is being “pumped.”  This question needs to be answered as HRGN is desperate to finance by any means as past Chinese private placement investors must be feeling … WHAT … TAKEN to the cleaners?

 

Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!

  • Right up front, “I also hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and facts are its product; I can always be WRONG but … I am mostly EARLY!”

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. Whether information or intelligence is good, bad, or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor, and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication. Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities.

I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.