October 30, 2020 5:34pm

Concluding October in an exhaustive session and tempestuous month

Pre-open indication results: 10 HITs and 3 Miss

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The Dow closed DOWN -157.51 points (-0.59%), the S&P closed DOWN -40.15 points (-1.21%) while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -274.00 points (-2.45%)

 

Henry’omics:

Indexes fell on Friday, affecting the RegMed, stem, cell and gene therapy sector’s shares, as markets wrapped up a difficult week and tumultuous month of October in which coronavirus cases rose, U.S. fiscal stimulus talks broke down and traders braced for next week’s presidential election.

For the week, the Dow (-6.5%), the S&P 500 (-5.6%) and the Nasdaq (-6%) are down for the week.

In the month, the Dow lost more than 6% while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq each declined by more than 5% in October.

  • Note: The S&P 500 has fallen about 9.7% since hitting an all-time high in early September.

The CBOE volatility index held at a 20-week high, a sign of investors jitters ahead of the final weekend before Election Day on Tuesday.

 

Pre-open indication: 10 HITs < Bellicum Pharmaceuticals (BLCM -$2.19), bluebird bio (-$1.18), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$4.53), Verastem (VSTM -$0.04); SELL into Strength: Athersys (ATHX -$0.04), BioLife Solutions (BLFS -$2.01), Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI -$0.72), Homology Medicine (FIXX -$0.53), Sage Therapeutics (SAGE -$0.53),  Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR -$0.33) > and 3 MISS < Biostage (BSTG +$0.02), Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$0.35), Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS +$0.10)  >

 

Addition footage from the sector:  Bellicum Pharmaceuticals (BLCM)

… Plunged -$2.19 or -37.12% to $3.71 on Friday, putting them on track for their biggest-ever one-day drop, after BLCM slashed its workforce by 79% as part of a restructuring, following disappointing data from a trial of its pancreatic cancer treatment.

  • The interim trial results of BPX-601 were "encouraging" in terms of safety and GoCAR-T cell activation, but clinically meaningful efficacy was not observed.
  •  "We have concluded that Bellicum must reduce spending on preclinical programs and shift its resources to enable achievement of meaningful milestones in the clinic," said Chief Executive Rick Fair.
  • BLCM has cut its staff to 14 employees from 68 by the end of 2020.
  • Ladenburg Thalmann analyst Wangzhi Li followed by downgrading BLCM to neutral from buy, writing in a note to clients that the interim trial results "raises questions on a key intended function of GoCART technology and significantly increases uncertainty on its outlook." <MarketWatch - Tomi Kilgore>

 

This morning, I stated in this a.m.’s newsletter – RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: hammer time, volatility rules as pre-election nerves and COVID infection rates set the “play” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/11612

 

RegMed/Cell and Gene therapy 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: progressions and regressions …

  • Friday opened negative at 6/26 and 3 flats, stayed negative at the mid-day at 3/30 and 2 flats, closing negative at 5/28 and 2 flats;
  • Thursday opened negative at 15/19 and 1 flat, strayed positive at the mid-day at 22/12 and 1 flat, closing positive at 21/10 and 4 flats;
  • Wednesday opened negative at 1/32 and 2 flats, stayed negative at the mid-day at 3/31 and 1 flat, closing negative at 3/30 and 2 flats;
  • Tuesday opened positive at 19/13 and 3 flats, stayed positive at the mid-day at 21/12 and 2 flats, closing positive at 19/13 and 3 flats;
  • Monday opened negative at 13/19 and 3 flats, stayed negative at the mid-day at 5/28 and 2 flats, closing negative at 9/24 and 2 flats;

 

Key metrics:

  • Sector volume was the usual LOW with 1 of the 5-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with the increased volume of 3 of 28-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Friday’s percentage (%) of the 5-upside were +0.21% (IONS) to +5.79% (RARE) while the 28-downside ranges from -0.28% (ALNY) to -37.12% (BLCM);

 

Hammered in today’s market:

  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP), Bellicum Pharmaceuticals (BLCM), Editas Medicine (EDIT), BioLife Solutions (BLFS), Alnylam pharmaceuticals (ALNY) to name 5 of the 28 declining of the 35 covered

Jumping with share pricing momentum:

  • Ultragenyx (RARE), Chinook Therapeutics (KDNY), uniQure NV (QURE), Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS), Caladrius Biosciences (CLBS), Biostage (BSTG) to name 5 of the 5 inclining of the 35 covered

 

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

  • Friday, the IBB closed down -1.83 % and XBI closed down -2.12 %
  • Thursday, the IBB closed up +0.53% and XBI closed up +0.88%
  • Wednesday, the IBB closed down -2.58% and XBI closed down -2.75%
  • Tuesday, the IBB closed up +0.56% and XBI closed up +1.19%
  • Monday, the IBB closed down -1.01% and XBI closed down -1.34%

 

Friday’s (5 of 5) incliners:

  • Ultragenyx (RARE +$5.50 - an all-time high);
  • Chinook Therapeutics (KDNY +$0.45 after Thursday’s -$1.07, Wednesday’s -$1.48 and Tuesday’s -$0.45);
  • uniQure NV (QURE +$0.18 after Thursday’s +$1.40, Wednesday’s -$3.33, Tuesday’s -$1.27 and Monday’s +$0.61);
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS +$0.10 after Thursday’s +$1.03);
  • Biostage (BSTG +$0.02);

Friday’s (10 of 28) decliner:

  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$4.53 after Thursday’s +$1.64, Wednesday’s -$3.41, Tuesday’s +$3.99 and Monday’s +$1.40);
  • Bellicum Pharmaceuticals (BLCM -$2.19 after Thursday’s -$0.50, Wednesday’s +$0.17, Tuesday’s -$0.14 and Monday’s +$0.05);
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS -$2.01 after Thursday’s +$1.64, Wednesday’s -$1.24 and Tuesday’s +$1.53);
  • Editas Medicine (EDIT -$1.85 after Thursday’s +$1.19);
  • Fate Therapeutics (FATE -$1.23 after Thursday’s +$0.60, Wednesday’s -$2.43, Tuesday’s +$0.56 and Monday’s -$1.58);
  • bluebird bio (BLUE -$0.96)
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$1.01 after Thursday’s +$0.55);
  • Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI -$0.72 after Thursday’s +$0.67);
  • Regenxbio (RGNX -$0.56 after Thursday’s +$0.86, Wednesday’s -$1.29, Tuesday’s +$0.70 and Monday’s +$0.15);
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE -$0.53 after Thursday’s +$2.06, Wednesday’s +1.05, Tuesday’s +$2.30 and Monday’s -$3.00);

Closing flat - 1 –ReNeuron (RENE.L) and 1 -Stemline Therapeutics (STML – acquired)

 

Percentage (%) movement/range statistics: a 360 degrees comparison of % and pricing

  • Friday’s percentage (%) of the 5-upside were +0.21% (IONS) to +5.79% (RARE) while the 28-downside ranges from -0.28% (ALNY) to -37.12% (BLCM);
  • Thursday’s percentage (%) of the 21-upside were +0.07% (PSTI) to +9.82% (ATHX) while the 10-downside ranges from -0.66% (CLBS) to -8.25% (KDNY);
  • Wednesday’s percentage (%) of the 3-upside were +0.62% (ATHX) to +2.73% (BLCM) while the 30-downside ranges from -0.29% (SLDB) to -10.24% (KDNY);
  • Tuesday’s percentage (%) of the 19-upside were +0.09% (GBT) to +6.78% (RARE) while the 13-downside of -0.05% (VCEL) to -4.14% (ATHX);
  • Monday’s percentage (%) of the 9-upside were +0.28% (GBT) to +4.97% (ATHX) while the 24-downside of -0.14% (VYGR) to -9.62% (SLDB);

 

Sentiment and a few daily indicators:

Mounting economic (recovery) restrictions, -acceleration in COVID-19 infections, triggered sharp losses as tech firms’ earnings were “not-up-to-snuff” bursting the sentiment bubble even more.

Infection cases <Million>:

  • Friday 8.99 cases
  • Thursday 8.86 cases
  • Wednesday 8.78 M cases
  • Tuesday 8.75 M cases
  • Monday 8.66 M cases

Friday’s death rate totaled 229,141 after Thursday’s 227,706, Wednesday’s 226,777, Tuesday’s 226,436, Monday’s 225,434 and last Friday’s 223,059 <Johns Hopkins University>

 

Stats:

Upside volume: 

  • Friday: 1 out of the 5-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Thursday: 3 out of the 21-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Wednesday: 0 out of the 3-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Tuesday: 3 out of the 19-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Monday: 2 out of the 9-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

  • Friday was up +0.43 points or +1.14% at 38.02
  • Thursday was down -2.69 points or -6.68% at 37.59
  • Wednesday was up +8.93 points or +20.78% at 40.28
  • Tuesday was up +0.89 points or +2.74% at 33.45
  • Monday was up +4.91 points or +17.82% at 32.46

Downside volume:

  • Friday: 3 out of the 28-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Thursday: 5 out of the 10-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Wednesday: 6 out of the 30-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Tuesday: 3 out of the 13-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Monday: 3 out of the 24-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;

 

October, the first month <October> of Q4 … ends

Friday closed negative with 5 advancers, 28 decliners and 2 flats 

Thursday closed positive with 21 advancers, 10 decliners and 4 flats

Wednesday closed negative with 3 advancers, 30 decliners and 2 flats 

Tuesday closed positive with 19 advancers, 13 decliners and 3 flats 

Monday (10/26) closed negative with 9 advancers, 24 decliners and 2 flats  

Friday closed positive with 24 advancers, 10 decliners and 1 flat

Thursday closed positive with 26 advancers, 7 decliners and 2 flats

Wednesday closed negative with 5 advancers, 27 decliners and 3 flats 

Tuesday closed negative with 14 advancers, 19 decliners and 2 flats

Monday (10/19) closed negative with 8 advancers, 25 decliners and 2 flats 

Friday closed positive with 20 advancers, 12 decliners and 3 flats

Thursday closed positive with 17 advancers, 15 decliners and 3 flats

Wednesday closed negative with 11 advancers, 22 decliners and 2 flats 

Tuesday closed positive with 20 advancers, 12 decliners and 3 flats 

Monday (10/12) closed neutral with 16 advancers, 16 decliners and 3 flats 

Friday closed positive with 21 advancers, 9 decliners and 5 flats 

Thursday closed positive with 18 advancers, 14 decliners and 3 flats

Wednesday closed positive with 26 advancers, 9 decliners and 2 flats 

Tuesday closed negative with 11 advancers, 23 decliners and 1 flat 

Monday (10/5) closed positive with 33 advancers, 1 declined and 1 flat 

Friday closed negative with 8 advancers, 26 decliners and 1 flat 

Thursday (10/1) closed negative with 21 advancers, 12 decliners and 2 flats

 

The Bottom Line: I was right on the mark in reiterating, bubble, bubble; the market and sector are getting chewed!

Now we enter the big upswing in sector earnings’ LPS (loss-per-share) releases with additional worries re the election on Tuesday and its after effects?

Until then, I’d keep the lid on your portfolio if you haven’t reduced risk and sit with your back to the wall … to see what’s coming before you!

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.