February 22, 2024 4:49pm

Don’t think so, expectation is burning at stake following another up/positive sector session, 2 in a row.

Pre-open Indications: 2 Hits and 4 Miss

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Reiterating … again, “the cell and gene therapy sector continues to “recalibrate” its share pricing expectations and I do NOT think this adjustment is completely over.”

 

Thursday: The Dow closed UP +456.87 points or +1.18%, the S&P closed UP +105.23 points +2.11% while the Nasdaq closed UP +460.75 points or +2.96%

 

Henry’omics:

We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …

Thursday indexes closed higher surging Thursday to an all-time high after stronger-than-expected quarterly results, as the tech sector popped.

Economic Data Docket: Initial jobless claims for the week ending on Feb. 17 totaled 201,000, which was a decrease of 12,000 from the previous week’s revised level. Insured unemployment was 1,862,000 for the week ending Feb. 10. Claims are hovering at historically low levels

  • The Philadelphia Semiconductor index also hit a record high, jumping 5.2%.
  • A purchasing managers index focused on the manufacturing industry came in higher than economists expected on Thursday. S&P Global’s flash U.S. manufacturing PMI climbed to 51.5 in February — a 17-month high from 50.7 the prior month. The firm’s flash PMI for services fell to 51.3 from 52.5 between January and February. That’s below the forecast of 52.7 from economists.
  • Existing home sales topped estimates in terms of total units but fell short in the rate of change. Sales totaled 4 million on the month, slightly ahead of the Dow Jones consensus outlook for 3.96 million. However, on a comparative level the increase was just 3.1%, compared to the expectation for 4.8%. Sales were off 1.7% from a year ago. Total inventory edged higher to 1.01 million units, the equivalent of three months’ supply. The median sales price jumped to a fresh record $379,100, up 5.1% from a year ago.

 

Thursday’s RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: “Fragility risks are high, vulnerable liquidity with gliding volatility after a weak Wednesday with sector earnings today.” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13340

 

Pre-open indications: 2 Hits < Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$8.07), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$3.78)> 4 Miss < Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE +$0.70), Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR +$0.07), Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$0.30), Editas Medicine (EDIT -$0.08)>

 

Advance/Decline (A/D) Line:

  • Thursday’s advance/decline line at the open was positive with 17 incliner, 15 decliners and 3 flats; ending with a positive close of 26 incliners, 9 decliners and 0 flats

 

Ebb and flow of MY covered sector cell and gene therapy session daily “endings”:

Q1/24: February, 1 holiday, 7 negative and 8 positive closes

  • January: 2 holiday, 12 negative and 8 positive closes

 

Key Metrics:

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

  • Thursday, the IBB was up +1.41% and the XBI was up +1.84%

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

  • Thursday was down -0.83 point or -5.41% at 14.51

 

Thursday’s Closing Down (9 of 9):

  • Blueprint Medicine (BPMC -$1.26 after Wednesday’s -$3.99 and Tuesday’s +$0.99
  • Solid Biosciences (SLDB -$0.53 after Wednesday’s -$0.06 and Tuesday’s +$0.08
  • Regenxbio (RGNX -$0.23 after Wednesday’s -$0.14 after Tuesday’s -$0.29),
  • AxoGen (AXGN -$0.17)
  • Sangamo Therapeutics (SGMO -$0.135 after Wednesday’s +$0.055 and Tuesday’s -$0.20),
  • Compass Therapeutics (CMPX -$0.10 after Wednesday’s -$0.05),
  • Editas Medicine (EDIT -$0.08),
  • Prime Medicine (PRME -$0.04 after Wednesday’s +$0.46 and Tuesday’s -$0.43),
  • Homology Medicine (FIXX -$0.019),

Thursday’s Closing Up (10 of 26):

  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$8.07 after Wednesday’s +$5.05 and Tuesday’s +$2.69)
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$3.78 after Wednesday’s +$3.68 and Tuesday’s -$3.49),
  • Beam Therapeutics (BEAM +$1.78),
  • Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE +$0.70 after Wednesday’s +$0.31 and Tuesday’s -$1.05),
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS +$0.45 after Wednesday’s -$0.82),
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$0.30 after Wednesday’s -$0.27 and Tuesday’s -$0.59),
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS +$0.29 after Wednesday’s -$0.09),
  • Verve Therapeutics (VERV +$0.19 after Wednesday’s +$0.07),
  • Vericel (VCEL +$0.18 after Wednesday’s -$1.37 and Tuesday’s +$0.30),
  • Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM +$0.13)

 

Q1/24 – February

  • Thursday closed positive with 26 incliners, 9 decliners and 0 flat

 

The BOTTOM LINE: The cell and gene therapy sector continued to ascend on Thursday after clearing the bar barely in the high jump on Wednesday following Tuesday’s negative close after Monday’s holiday post a negative close on last Friday.

Earnings, net losses, and per-share losses, runways and guidance have begun Q4 and FY23 which WILL be crucial to continue downside force in the sector as history has taught us i.e., investors.

 

Another indicator: Vaccine maker Moderna (MRNA) jumped 15.7% after surprising investors with a fourth-quarter profit. The stock's technicals also pointed to a bullish outlook.

 

Quotes to ponder:  extrapolations … Don’t be fooled by … FOMO … “fear of missing out.”

"FOMO operates on its own timetable, stocks can get more expensive, and the Momentum ends when it ends, which is often without warning. FOMO, for now, Stays Bid." <Evercore ISI's Julian Emanuel>

I ALSO reiterate, “Don't chase the cell and gene therapy sector, especially with the Nasdaq extended.”

Short and non-sweet: SELL into STRENGTH – accumulate some “powder” i.e., cash!

 

Beam Therapeutics (BEAM) … earnings’ whisper

  •  Is expected to deliver a year-over-year decline in earnings on lower revenues when it reports results for the quarter ended December 2023.
  • Expected to post quarterly loss of $1.15 per share in its upcoming report, which represents a year-over-year change of -113%.
  • Revenues are expected to be $16.92 million, down 15.6% from the year-ago quarter.
  • Earnings ESP of -3.99%.

Vericel (VCEL) … earnings whisper

  • Vericel Corporation (VCEL) is expected to deliver a year-over-year increase in earnings on higher revenues when it reports results for the quarter ended December 2023.
  • Expected to post quarterly earnings of $0.18 per share in its upcoming report, which represents a year-over-year change of +50%.
  • Revenues are expected to be $65 million, up 23.4% from the year-ago quarter. <ZACKS>

Fate Therapeutics (FATE) … earnings whispers

  • FATE is expected to post quarterly loss of $0.57 per share in its upcoming report, which represents a year-over-year change of +1.7%. Revenues are expected to be $0.85 million, down 98.1% from the year-ago quarter. <ZACKS>

 

The top three (3) performing in the session:

  • Thursday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) and Beam Therapeutics (BEAM)
  • Wednesday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) and Prime Medicine (PRME)
  • Tuesday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Blueprint Medicine (BPMC) and uniQure NV (QURE)
  • Monday: a market holiday

The worst three (3) in the session:  

  • Thursday:  Blueprint Medicine (BLMC), Solid Biosciences (SLDB) and Regenxbio (RGNX),
  • Wednesday: Blueprint Medicine (BLMC), Vericel (VCEL) and Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS)
  • Tuesday: CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP), Beam Therapeutics (BEAM) and Sage Therapeutics (SAGE)
  • Monday was a market holiday,

 

The Harvard Apparatus RT (OTC:QB HRGN) formerly the Biostage (BSTG) Chronicles: shows how the “pimp/pump and promote” works …my treatise is VALIDATED!

  • Thursday closed up +$0.0075 with 15,907 shares traded
  • Wednesday close down -$0.02 with 1,106 shares traded,
  • Tuesday closed up +$0.24 with 24,963 shares traded <3-month average = 1,545 shares> WOW, if this doesn’t prove my point – nothing will!!
  • Monday was market holiday

Did you notice how it barely trades unless volume is being “pumped”.  This question needs to be answered as HRGN is desperate to finance by any means as past Chinese private placement investors must be feeling … WHAT … TAKEN to the cleaners?

 

Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!

  • Right up front, “I also hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and facts are its product; I can always be WRONG but … I am mostly EARLY!”

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. Whether information or intelligence is good, bad, or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor, and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication. Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities.

I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.