January 30, 2024 4:39pm

Mitigating volatility, electronic trading and sentiment affect the overbought being oversold enhanced by daily economic swings

As I wrote this a.m.: “After careful examination of the sector and breathe trends, I have come away more cautious; having lived through the rise and multiple declines of “our” universe’s stock pricing and on what fluctuating markets can do to an equity, or what impact indications or expectations can have.”

It’s not hard to be right so often, it’s about refining expectation, defining insight and NOT being indentured to ANY financial institution!

Pre-Open Indications:  4 Hits and 1 Miss

Never leave an investor uninformed! A trusted source of factual reporting!

Yet again, with NO slight sigh of relief, I qualify the sector’s equity’s movement; with an emphasis on which company is gaining or losing stride in “our” portfolio in the short-term

Join me … in the NO spin zone. If you’re looking for sector intel, ideas and facts or Insight in a volatile climate, RMi provides the extenuating factors of share pricing. Subscription is coming, it’s not conscription but, an offer to join our collective of like-minded investors! 

 

Tuesday: The Dow closed UP +133.86 points or +0.35%, the S&P closed DOWN -2.96 points -0.06% while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -118.15 points or -0.76%

 

Henry’omics:

We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …

Indexes closed mixed with the Fed policy meeting on the horizon

Economic Data Docket: the Case Shiller Home Price Index rose 0.1% across 20 U.S. cities, lower than estimates for 0.4% for November, according to Econoday. In November, the Federal Housing Finance Agency Home Price Index rose 0.3% and met views. The Conference Board released consumer confidence numbers for January. The board's reading came in at 114.8, ahead of forecasts for 114. Also in employment news, the Labor Department's Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey showed there were 9 million jobs available for December. Economists expected 8.7 million.

 

Pre-Open Indications:  4 Hits < CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$1.30), Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$1.59), Vericel (VCEL -$0.01), Beam Therapeutics (BEAM -$2.45)> 1 Miss < Caribou BioSciences (CRBU +$0.08)>

 

Tuesday’s RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: “vulnerability” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13305

Monday’s RegMed Investors’ (RMi) closing bell: “volatility varies the share pricing risks to share pricing” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13304

 

Advance/Decline (A/D) Line:

  • Tuesday’s advance/line lines at the open was negative with 3 incliners, 31 decliners and 1 flat; ending with a negative close of 4 incliners, 29 decliners and 2 flats

 

Ebb and flow of MY covered sector cell and gene therapy session daily “endings”:

Q1/24: 2 holidays, 11 negative and 8 positive closes

 

52-week low:

  • Regenxbio (RGNX) at $12.17

 

Key Metrics:

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

Tuesday, the IBB was down -0.66% and the XBI was down -2.27%

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

  • Tuesday was down -0.31 point or -2.28% at 13.29

 

Tuesday’s Closing Down (10 of 29):

  • Beam Therapeutics (BEAM -$2.45 after Monday’s +$4.00 and Friday’s -$0.63),
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$1.59 after Monday’s +$1.50 and Friday’s -$0.41),
  • Blueprint Medicine (BLMC -$1.53 after Monday’s +$3.49),
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$1.30 after Monday’s +$4.77 and Friday’s -$1.85),
  • Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE -$1.11 after Monday’s +$1.02 and Friday’s -$0.28),
  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$0.84 after Monday’s +$1.34 and Friday’s -$4.31),
  • Regenxbio (RGNX -$0.80),
  • Verve Therapeutics (VERV -$0.74),
  • Prime Medicine (PRME -$0.70 after Monday’s +$0.96 and Friday’s -$0.15),
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE -$0.64),

Flat (2):

  • Harvard Apparatus GN (HRGN)
  • Generation Bio (GBIO)

Tuesday’s Closing Up (4 of 4):

  • Solid Biosciences (SLDB +$0.12 after Monday’s -$0.02),
  • Caribou Biosciences (CRBU +$0.08 after Monday’s +$0.53 and Friday’s +$0.09),
  • Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI +$0.0635),
  • Sangamo Therapeutics (SGMO +$0.0126)

 

Q1/24 – January

  • Tuesday closed negative with 4 incliners, 29 decliners and 2 flats
  • (1/29) Monday closed positive with 31 incliners, 4 decliners and 0 flat

 

The BOTTOM LINE… The real and upcoming issue right now is Q4 and FY23 earnings … as well as the Fed and potential respose to Iran's midlling! 

When it comes to short-term investing or trading; the trend is NOT your friend. There's no denying a profitable strategy as the sustainability of a trend to profit seems easier this January after Q4’s  

  • Jumps and following dumps lately has become a routine.
  • The cell and gene therapy sector is still reacting to January’s dips and correcting to what happened in Q4 last year.
  • Investors are sensitive to geopolitical risks with oil rising after a Houthi missile attack caused a fire on a fuel tanker in the Red Sea. 

Geo-political risk jumps: The Biden administration has limited its previous retaliation to over 165 attacks by Iran-supported militias on U.S. forces and a drone attack killed three U.S. troops in Jordan.

Reiterating … again, “the cell and gene therapy sector continues to “recalibrate” its share pricing expectations and I don't think this … adjustment is completely over.”

  • Earnings and guidance are beginning 2/15 as Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) announces Q4 and FY23 and going to be crucial to continue driving force in the sector.

Today’s business news affecting “our” universe:

  • The yield on benchmark 10-year Treasury notes rebounded after the jobs data and then seesawed. It was last down 1 basis point at 4.082%.
  • Volume was lower on the Nasdaq compared with the same time Monday.
  • Small caps on the Russell 2000 suffered heavier losses in the afternoon, as the index lost 0.9% in recent action. Meanwhile, the Innovator IBD 50 (FFTY) exchange traded fund did slightly better with a fall of 0.7%. <IBD>

 

Investors are keenly focused on the Fed meeting release and the U.S. labor market as it is likely to signal when the Fed will begin cutting rates.

 

The top three (3) performing in the session:

  • Tuesday: Solid biosciences (SLDB), Caribou Biosciences (CRBU) and Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI)
  • Monday: CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP), Beam Therapeutics (BEAM) and Blueprint Medicine (BLMC)

The worst three (3) in the session:  

  • Tuesday: Beam Therapeutics (BEAM), Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA) and Blueprint Medicine (BLMC),
  • Monday: Graphite Bio (GRPH), Solid Biosciences (SLDB) and Homology Medicine (FIXX)

Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!

  • Right up front, “I also hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and facts are its product; I can always be WRONG but … I am mostly EARLY!”

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. Whether information or intelligence is good, bad, or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor, and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication. Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities.

I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.