January 29, 2024 4:46pm

As sentiment climbs and degrades the wall of worry pre-earnings LPS (loss-per-share) releases as ALNY starts the onslaught on 2/15

As I wrote this a.m.: “The sector narrative keeps shifting, today with mixed signals of bounce-backs.” Right again!

Pre-Open Indications:  4 Hits and 1 Miss

Never leave an investor uninformed! A trusted source of factual reporting!

With a slight sigh of relief, I answer or qualify the sector’s equity’s movement; with an emphasis on which company is gaining or losing stride in their portfolio for the short-term

Join me … in the NO spin zone. If you’re looking for sector intel, ideas and facts or Insight in a volatile climate, RMi provides the extenuating factors of share pricing.

 

Monday: The Dow closed UP +224.02 points or +0.59%, the S&P closed UP +36.96t points +0.76% while the Nasdaq closed UP +172.68 points or +1.12%

 

Henry’omics:

We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …

Indexes closed positive as tech earnings reports and the Fed’s rate policy decision this week.

The Federal Open Market Committee will begin its two-day policy meeting on Tuesday.

 

Pre-Open Indications:  4 Hits < Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$1.34). Beam Therapeutics (BEAM +$4.00), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$4.77), Verve Therapeutics (VERV +$0.45)> 1 Miss < Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE +$1.02)>

 

Monday’s RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: “The sector narrative keeps shifting, today with mixed signals of bounce-backs. Big pharma patent cliffs (refers to when a company’s patents for one or more leading branded products expire, which opens the door for competitors to sell copycats of those drugs, often at a lower price) raises its ugly head.” …  https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13303

 

Advance/Decline (A/D) Line:

Monday’s advance/line lines at the open was negative with 12 incliners, 21 decliners and 1 flat; ending with a positive close of 31 incliners, 4 decliners and 0 flat

 

Ebb and flow of MY covered sector cell and gene therapy session daily “endings”:

  • Q1/24, January: 2 holiday, 10 negative and 8 positive closes

 

52-week low:

  • Regenxbio (RGNX) at $12.52

 

Key Metrics:

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

  • Monday, the IBB was up +1.58% and the XBI was up +2.90%

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

  • Monday was up +0.38 point or +2.87% at 13.63

 

Monday’s Closing Down (4 of 4):

  • Graphite Bio (GRPH -$0.03),
  • Solid Biosciences (SLDB -$0.02),
  • Homology Medicine (FIXX -$0.0179 after Friday’s +$0.0654),
  • Bellicum Pharmaceuticals (BLCM -$0.0162),

Monday’s Closing Up (10 of 31):

  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$4.77 after Friday’s -$1.85
  • Beam Therapeutics (BEAM +$4.00 after Friday’s -$0.63),
  • Blueprint Medicine (BLMC +$3.49),
  • Vericel (VCEL +$1.96),
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$1.50 after Friday’s -$0.41),
  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$1.34 after Friday’s -$4.31),
  • Fate Therapeutics (FATE +$1.16),
  • Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE +$1.02 after Friday’s -$0.28),
  • Prime Medicine (PRME +$0.96 after Friday’s -$0.15),
  • Caribou Biosciences (CRBU +$0.53 after Friday’s +$0.09),

 

Q1/24 – January

  • (1/29) Monday closed positive with 31 incliners, 4 decliners and 0 flat

 

The BOTTOM LINE… “if one watches the flow, the numbers and understanding the old Abbot & Costello monologue: Who’s on first, what’s on second and I don’t know who is on third – that’s what I want to find out!”

  • The cell and gene therapy sector is still reacting to January’s dips and correcting to what happened in Q4 last year.
  • Luckly, “The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note fell 5.9 basis points to 4.101.
  • Investors were also sensitive to geopolitical risks with oil rising after a Houthi missile attack caused a fire on a fuel tanker in the Red Sea and a drone attack killed three U.S. troops in Jordan. <Reuters>

 

Geo-political risk: The Biden administration has limited its previous retaliation to over 150 attacks by Iran-supported militias on U.S. forces. Republicans are now calling for a stronger response. [New York Times]

 

Stock valuations look stretched given inflationary risks, JPMorgan says <CNBC>

  • The market isn’t properly pricing in the risks of stickier than expected inflation, according to JPMorgan.
  • “A few bad inflation prints would likely upset both bond and equity markets, as risk markets could again start pricing a higher probability of ‘hard landing,’” he wrote. “This outcome is very underpriced in large cap equities and credit, which price close to zero probability of recession, as the strong rally since the end of October has pushed both credit and equity markets into expensive valuation territory.”

 

Analyst Marko Kolanovic believes that the ongoing market rally could be knocked back if core inflation in the first half of 2024 proves firmer than investors have expected.

 

Reiterating … again, “the cell and gene therapy sector continues to “recalibrate” its share pricing expectations and I don't think this … adjustment is completely over.”

  • Earnings and guidance are beginning 2/15 as Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) announces Q4 and FY23 and going to be crucial to continue driving force in the sector.

 

A research note from JP Morgan, “ Beam Therapeutics jumped  16.47% on Monday after JPMorgan upgraded the stock, saying it stands to benefit from increased market share and a strong gene therapy pipeline. The firm thinks the stock could surge more than 60% over the next year. “In our view, Beam’s proprietary genetic base-editing platform provides either first or best-in-class potential across a diverse array of programs in heme and liver-mediated disease indications with advantages in editing efficiency, specificity, and editing in larger organ systems,” analyst Eric Joseph wrote in a Monday note. Heme is a component of hemoglobin, a protein in red blood cells.

Today’s business news affecting “our” universe:

  • The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq held their ground, while the Dow struggled to get traction in afternoon trading Monday.
  • Volume rose on the Nasdaq vs. the same time on Friday.

The top three (3) performing in the session:

  • Monday: CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP), Beam Therapeutics (BEAM) and Blueprint medicine (BLMC)

The worst three (3) in the session:  

  • Monday: Graphite Bio (GRPH), Solid Biosciences (SLDB) and Homology Medicine (FIXX)

Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!

  • Right up front, “I also hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and facts are its product; I can always be WRONG but … I am mostly EARLY!”

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. Whether information or intelligence is good, bad, or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor, and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication. Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities.

I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.