February 2, 2018 6:09pm

Sector intelligence and perspective

 

The week that just kept diving as volatility resulted in substantial losses in the sector

Friday, the sector opened down, stayed down and closed to the downside

While the IBB (-1.61%), the NASDAQ (-144.92 points or -1.96%) XBI (-1.88%), XLV (-1.24%), IWM (-1.93%) were down as the VIX jumped +27.77%

 

Despite the sector crash, is it a set-up for the oversold to be “recognized” even while understanding that Q4 results, spending and cash position will be unveiled starting next week?

Don’t rush back-in on depressed share values; see how Monday starts the week!

 

Pre-open indications: 3 hits and 3 miss (1 by pennies)

 

Out and about: Gene therapy companies continued to dive after four (4) session downdrafts due to possible risks of high systemic dosing of AAV – the players … AGTC (-$0.05), BOLD (-$0.425), AVXS (-$4.96), RGNX (-$0.40), QURE (-$0.06), ADVM (-$0.25), ONCE (-$0.03) were down along with BLUE (-$4.30) submerging as SLDB advanced +$1.17

The Biostage (BSTG +$0.04) chronicles … don’t be fooled by surges of day trading after 20 M shares were reversed and past shareholders were “fleeced” in MY opinion!

 

Friday’s results have implications to Monday’s sector activity as a daily report may say little or a lot and it serves as insurance that all indications are being examined and evaluated!

 

Henry’omics:

From the pre-open’s newsletter, “… the known unknown as the market is headed for a big sell-off.  Keeping an eye on indexes, fundamentals and many of those “other” indicators is an attempt of futility many days to prognosticate sentiment. However, the real issue is that algorithms have become unshackled and I believe contribute to conflicts in sector pricing. Their vulnerability is the “human” that could interrupt their machine learning.”

Sector stocks closed out a tough week with a brutal sell-off Friday that has been a continuous “thing”!

A variety of indicators — sentiment surveys, valuation readings, money flows into stock funds — have been screaming sell-off for weeks. That many investors weren't paying attention is pretty normal. When the water looks arm and inviting, everyone wants in the pool. However, stocks hit a tipping point in recent days when government bond yields starting surging, indicating to investors, late though it may have been, that it was time for the market to take a pause. <CNBC>

Assuming that sentiment is at a New Year low; the historical pattern, that the bottom we are seeing - will be a factor for the oversold to rebound in the sector!

 

 

The advance/decline line scenario of 40 SCGT & RT covered companies:   

·         The open was negative with an A/DL of 10/27 and 3 flat ;

·         The mid-day stayed negative with an A/DL of 7/29 and 4 flat;

·         The close was negative  with an A/DL of 7/31 and 2 flat;

 

Pre-open indications:

  • Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM) closed down -$0.40 – hit;
  • Applied Genetic Technologies (AGTC) closed down -$0.25 – hit;
  • Cellectis SA (CLLS) closed down again -$0.95 – miss;
  • Capricor (CAPR) closed up +$0.08 – miss;
  • uniQure (QURE) closed down -$0.26 – miss;
  • Vericel (VCEL) closed down -$0.55 – hit;

 

 

MY working trend lines:

… The greatest volume to the downside:  IMUC, CYTX, SGMO, MDXG and BLCM

… Upside volume was weighted to:  JUNO, CAPR, HSGX, OSIR and KOOL

… Biggest $ downside:  BLUE (-$6.35), SGMO (-$1.55), AXGN (-$1.40), RGNX (-$1.10) and MDXG (-$1.00)

… Largest $ upside:  CLBS (+$0.11), CAPR (+$0.08), KOOL (+$0.08), OSIR (+$0.05) and HSGX (+$0.05)

… Flat:  RENE.L and STML

 

 

Out and about:

Biostage (BSTGD) This management team WIPED OUT 20 M of holder’s shares and investment!

Previous close of $3.31 with today’s close of $3.31 (up+$0.04) in a day’s range of $3.18 to $3.60 and volume of 14,298 shares.

  • This follows the projected $1.32 post the 1-to-20 reverse split – a $4 M in-flow just followed a $30 M investment loss incurring a $47 M deficit!
  • NO scientists, a CEO, CFO and 2 accountants don’t make a company who couldn’t pay their rent or communicate their issues to past “fleeced” shareholders …
  • I am NOT “eating” any of my negative declaration; my OPINION is still “COVER UP of male and female harassment and corporate MISDEEDS “by members of management team!
  • What did happen to (reasons) and the story “around” the IND NOT being filed and the cmo and president leaving the company? NEVER forget the storyline of the 2 broken financings before the reverse split!
  • http://app.quotemedia.com/data/downloadFiling?webmasterId=101533&ref=11980760&type=HTML&symbol=BSTGD&companyName=Biostage&formType=3&dateFiled=2018-01-10&cik=0001563665 – VERY interesting, NO mention of BSTG’s executives!

 

 

Daily analytics:

The Dow shed more than 1,105 points for the week, which would be its steepest weekly slide since Oct. 10 2008, when it shed 1,874 points.

·         The Dow was down 680 points, or about 2.5%.

·         The S&P 500 index was down 2%, at 2,767.

·         The NASDAQ gave up 1.7% to close at 7,265.

 

The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, Friday traded at 17.21, up +27.77% …

  • Thursday traded at 13.47, down -0.52% after Wednesday traded at 13.54, down -8.45% after Tuesday traded at 14.84, up +7.30% after Monday traded at 13.71, up +23.92% and last Friday traded at 11.08, down -4.32% …

 

Welcome to another day of the sector’s roller coaster …

… The iShares Russell 2000 (IWM) indicated:

·         Friday was down -1.93%

·         Thursday was up +0.32%

·         Wednesday -0.48%

·         Tuesday -0.96%

·         Monday -0.56%

·         Last Friday +0.35%

 

… The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) indicated:

·         Friday was down -1.61%

·         Thursday was down -0.09%

·         Wednesday -1.88%

·         Tuesday -1.88%

·         Monday +0.39%

·         Last Friday +1.21%

 

 

The count - decliners versus gainers:

……. look at the differences in decliners:

·         Friday’s decliners ranged from -0.60% <NWBO -$0.002> to -7.82% <CUR -$0.14> in 31 equities;

·         Thursday’s decliners ranged from -0.11% <QURE -$0.02> to -8.5% <CAPR -$0.17> in 22 equities;

·         Wednesday’s decliners ranged from -0.18% <BLFS -$0.01> to -25.85% <BLCM -$2.12> in 27 equities;

·         Tuesday’s decliners ranged from -0.23% <CLBS -$0.01> to -15.13% <VTGN -$0.23> in 28 equities;

·         Monday’s decliners ranged from -0.19% <JUNO -$0.16> to -7.66% <CAPR -$0.16> in 21 equities;

·         Last Friday’s decliners ranged from -0.03% <JUNO -$0.03> to -4.79% <VTGN -$0.08> in 17 equities;

Versus

… Look at the percentage’s (%) and spreads …

·         Friday’s gainers ranged from +0.04% <JUNO +$0.03> to +4.37% <CAPR +$0.08> in 7 equities;

·         Thursday’s gainers ranged from +0.17% <BLUE +$0.35> to +5.84% <VCEL +$0.45> in 15 equities;

·         Wednesday’s gainers ranged from +0.08% <JUNO +$0.07> to +7.94% <NWBO +$0.03> in 12 equities;

·         Tuesday’s gainers ranged from +0.21% <JUNO +$0.18> to +7.22% <HSGX +$0.19> in 7 equities;

·         Monday’s gainers ranged from +0.31% <BSTG +$0.01> to +13.56% <CYTX +$0.059> in 19 equities;

·         Last Friday’s gainers ranged from +0.24% <SGMO +$0.05> to +23.67% <CAPR -$0.40> in 21 equities;

        

                          

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.