April 24, 2020 5:55pm

Rumor: Is French pharma Sanofi (SNY) making a play for gene therapy UniQure (QURE) that sent QURE stock flying in afternoon trading as QURE share pricing popped +$5.11 or +9.03% to $61.70; while Sanofi (SNY) shares climbed $1.48 or +3.06% to $49.85 and a negative -$0.59 or -1.18% aftermarket "taste".

Pre-open indications: 6 HIT <PSTI +$2.07), (BLUE +$4.67), MESO +$9.00), QURE +$5.11), RGNX +$2.88), (CLBS +$0.09)> and 2 miss of my “boycott” and coverage dropping choice < (ATHX +$0.46) as they take PPP money while executing an offering and (AXGN +$0.03) with strong cash position and  increased revenue – judge them for cheating small business out of emergency loans

The week in review …

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The Dow closed UP +260.11 points (+1.11%), the S&P closed UP +38.94 points (+1.39%) while the NASDAQ closed UP +139.77 points (+1.65%)

 

Henry’omics:

Indexes rose on Friday and sector equities seemed kept many of yesterday’s gains as investors ended another volatile week that featured unprecedented moves in the jobless, oil futures, markets and pricing flip-flops, claims issues of whether a drug improved viral conditions or even worked.

The doubt on the over the Gilead Sciences’ (GILD) trial is the size and timing conducted in China; wait for results from U.S. studies before we consider disregarding the treatment.

For the week, the Dow was down -1.9%, the S&P 500 fell 1% and the NASDAQ was down -0.02%.

Friday’s volume INCREASED as 10 of the 29-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume and THIN as only 1 of the 6-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume.

Looking ahead it’s about how and what will work versus the when of re-opening businesses

The old saying of ‘sell in May and go away” resounds as market are projecting it’s going to be late May, maybe June – I say later - before the economy is re-opened.

 

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

  • Friday, the IBB closed UP +2.42% and XBI also closed up +3.44%
  • Thursday, the IBB closed down -0.31% and XBI also closed down -0.05%
  • Wednesday, the IBB closed up +0.95% and XBI also closed up +1.91%
  • Tuesday, the IBB closed down -3.03% and XBI also closed down -3.04%
  • Monday, the IBB closed up +1.29% and XBI also closed up +3.72%

 

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

  • Friday was down -5.45 points or -13.17% at 35.93,
  • Thursday was down -0.60 points or -1.43% at 41.38,
  • Wednesday was down -3.40 points or -7.49% at 42.01,
  • Tuesday was up +1.58 points or +3.60% at 45.41,
  • Monday was up +5.21 points or +13.79% at 43.41,

 

RegMed/Cell and gene therapy 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: progressions and regressions …

  • Friday opened positive at 21/10 and 3 flats, stayed positive at the mid-day at 25/10 to closed positive at 29/6;
  • Thursday opened positive at 30/5, stayed positive at the mid-day at 23/10 and 2 flats to closed negative at 15/19;
  • Wednesday opened positive at 30/10, stayed positive at the mid-day at 30/5 and closed positive at 30/5;
  • Tuesday opened negative at 4/30 and 1 flat, stayed negative at the mid-day at 3/32 and closed negative at 3/32;
  • Monday opened negative at 15/18 and 2 flats, jumped positive at the mid-day at 29/6 and closed positive at 30/10;

 

Friday’s (top 10) incliners:

  • Mesoblast (MESO +$9.00);
  • Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT +$8.51 after Thursday’s-$0.56 and Wednesday’s -$0.37);
  • uniQure NV (QURE +$5.11 on rumors after Thursday’s +$0.57 and Wednesday’s -$0.67);
  • bluebird bio (BLUE +$4.67 after Thursday’s -$1.67);
  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$3.99 after Thursday’s +$1.53, Wednesday’s +$2.26, Tuesday’s -$7.02 and last Monday’s +$6.39);
  • Regenxbio (RGNX +$2.88 after Thursday’s +$0.88 and Wednesday’s +$1.80);
  • ReNeuron (RENE.L +$2.50 after Thursday’s +$5.00, Wednesday’s +$1.00, Tuesday’s -$7.00 and last Monday’s -$10.50);
  • Pluristem (PSTI +$2.07 after Thursday’s +$1.37, Wednesday’s -$0.20, Tuesday’s +$0.50 and last Monday’s +$0.25);
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE +$1.87 after Thursday’s +$0.67 and Wednesday’s +$1.36);
  • Ultragenyx (RARE +$1.66);
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$1.53);

Friday’s (only 6) decliners:

  • Precision (PGEN -$0.20 after Thursday’s +$0.40);
  • Cellectis SA (CLLS -$0.60 after Thursday’s -$0.34);
  • BioLife solutions (BLFS -$0.45);
  • Biostage (BSTG -$0.10 after Thursday’s -$0.40);
  • MiMedx (MDXG -$0.04);
  • Solid Biosciences (BCLI -$0.02);

 

Today’s stand-outs: a few to mention, not all …

  • 3rd session upside repeater: ALNY, RGNX, RENE.L, SAGE
  • 2nd session upside repeater: QURE, PSTI
  • Upside equities returning to the fold: AGTC, GBT, RARE, CRSP, MESO, BLUE to mention a few …
  • The rotation added 29 advancers after Thursday’s dive of Thursday’s 19, Wednesday’s 29 advancing equities, Tuesday’s 32 declining equities and Monday’s 30 advancers;
  • 2nd downside repeater: CLLS
  • Hop-scotching – Biostage (BSTG) closed down again (Friday) after being up after Tuesday’s down after Monday’s up with low volume after Friday closing down post twice (2x) being flat following closing positive 3 times versus 7 negative closes in the last eighteen (18) sessions since April 1st;
  • The downside added: PGEN, MDXG, SLDB

 

Percentage (%) movement/range statistics: look closely …

  • Friday’s % of the 29-upside were +0.52% (AGTC) to +139.53% (MESO) while the xx-downside ranged from -0.88% (SLDB) to -4.74% (CLLS); 
  • Thursday’s % of the 16-upside were +0.06% (RARE) to +15.24% (PSTI) while the 19-downside ranged from -0.15% (MESO) to -11.43% (BSTG); 
  • Wednesday’s % of the 29-upside were +0.34% (ADRO) to +16.67% (BSTG) while the 6-downside ranged from -0.10% (FATE) to -3.02% (SLDB); 
  • Tuesday’s % of the 3-upside were +0.76% (BLFS) to +5.75% (PSTI) while the 32-downside ranged from -0.38% (GBT) to -14.29% (BSTG); 
  • Monday’s % of the 30-upside were +0.32% to +22.01% (VSTM) while the 10-downside ranged from -1.23% (AGTC) to -7.05% (RENE.L); 

 

Sentiment and its indicators: the offsets are in place …

  • U.S. crude futures were up about 2%, trading at $16.83 per barrel, death rates are up while the pandemic dominated market sentiment which has also led to unprecedented fiscal and monetary stimulus - debt and more debt … The market is getting used to the fact that maybe it’s going to be late May, maybe June, before the economy is re-opened.

Defining pandemic disruption: The number of confirmed U.S. coronavirus cases: every day I get sadder as I post these numbers …

  • Friday’s 870,400
  • Thursday’s 854,400
  • Wednesday’s 830,700;
  • Tuesday’s 788,900,
  • Monday’s 766,600,

Friday’s death rate escalated to 50,031 after Thursday’s 47,178, Wednesday’s 45,638, Tuesday’s 42,485, and last Monday’s 40,931 <John Hopkins University>

 

Upside volume stats: 

  • Friday: 10 out of the 29-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Thursday: 5 out of the 16-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Wednesday: 6 out of the 29-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Tuesday: 1 out of the 3-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Monday: 16 out of the 30-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;

Downside volume stats:

  • Friday: 1 out of the 6-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Thursday: 4 out of the 19-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Wednesday: 2 out of the 6-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Tuesday: 11 out of the 32-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Monday: 3 out of the 10-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;

 

April

Friday closed positive with 6 decliners, 29 advancer and 0 flat

Thursday closed negative with 19 decliners, 16 advancer and 0 flat

Wednesday closed positive with 6 decliners, 29 advancer and 0 flat

Tuesday closed negative with 32 decliners, 3 advancer and 0 flat

Monday closed positive with 10 decliners, 30 advancer and 0 flat

Friday closed positive with 6 decliners, 29 advancer and 0 flat

Thursday closed negative with 20 decliners, 14 advancer and 1 flat

Wednesday closed negative with 29 decliners, 6 advancer and 0 flats

Tuesday closed positive with 4 decliners, 31 advancer and 0 flats

Monday closed negative with 19 decliners, 16 advancer and 0 flats

Friday was a market holiday

Thursday closed positive with 7 decliners, 28 advancer and 0 flat

Wednesday closed positive with 4 decliners, 30 advancer and 1 flat

Tuesday closed negative with 18 decliners, 17 advancer and 0 flats

Monday closed positive with 2 decliners, 33 advancer and 0 flats

Friday closed negative with 23 decliners, 12 advancer and 0 flats

Thursday closed positive with 10 decliners, 23 advancer and 2 flats

Wednesday (4/1) closed negative with 31 decliners, 4 advancer and 0 flat

 

The BOTTOM LINE:  Are you a trader or an investor? In many ways, you NEED to be BOTH if you really believe that your portfolio can last through the short-term to the near and long-term?

The sector faces some very serious technical tests as quarterly (Q1) results and conference calls are about to show-up or as I say down on the share pricing road.

We are left with many tough choices – I am a believer in the hope of development in the RegMed/cell and gene therapy sector however, the storm clouds are collecting in May! <exclamation>

Expectation – Q3 and Q4 should show signs of reduced anxiety over share pricing and portfolio ROI.

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.