April 9, 2020 5:09pm

I see a bubble and it’s not from chewing gum; wait for, wait for it – pop!

What I provide is an “intelligence newspaper” to ensure that shareholders are kept apprised based on a 24-hour surveillance of “our” universe, the RegMed/cell and gene therapy sector and its surrounding markets. Check the BOTTOM LINE … <read more>

Equity indexes will be closed tomorrow in observance of the Good Friday holiday - Happy Easter and “chag sameach” Passover

The Dow closed UP +285.80 points (+1.22%), the S&P closed UP +39.84 points (+1.45%) while the NASDAQ closed UP +62.67 points (+0.77%)

 

Henry’omics:

Indexes rose on Thursday wraps-up the week of gains as the Fed gave more details on how it will support the economy amid the coronavirus pandemic.

  • Strong weekly gains were highlighted by the S&P 500’s +11.9% week putting it on pace for its best week since 2008. The Dow was up more than 12% for the week while the Nasdaq had rallied 10%;
  • The Fed announced as slew of programs, including loans geared towards small and medium sized businesses, that will total up to $2.3 trillion. The central bank also gave more details on its plans to buy investment-grade and junk bonds.

 

As the market “train” moves forward, it’s still dark in the tunnel and the trestles are not totally nailed! <my opinion>

 

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

  • Thursday, the IBB closed up +0.91% and XBI also closed up +1.88%
  • Wednesday, the IBB closed up +3.10% and XBI also closed up +3.93%
  • Tuesday, the IBB closed down -1.94% and XBI also closed down -1.83%
  • Monday, the IBB closed up +5.14% and XBI also closed up +7.40%

 

Volatility in the market is usually inversely correlated in the short-term. The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

  • Thursday was down -1.78 points or -4.11% at 41.54,
  • Wednesday was down -3.64 points or -7.77% at 43.07,
  • Tuesday was up +1.35 points or +2.98% at 46.59,
  • Monday was down -1.56 points or -3.33% at 45.24,
  • Friday volatility was down -4.11 points or -8.07% at 46.80,
  • The previous week in March, the VIX eclipsed its financial crisis high, closing at 82.69.

 

RegMed/Cell and gene therapy 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: progressions and regressions …

  • Thursday opened positive at 32/3, stayed positive at the mid-day at 31/4 and closed positive at 28/7 of the 35 covered companies;
  • Wednesday opened positive at 24/11, stayed positive at the mid-day at 31/4 and closed positive at 30/4 and 1 flat (PGEN) of the 35 covered companies;
  • Tuesday opened positive at 28/5 and 2 flats (CLBS & AGTC), stayed positive at the mid-day at 27/8 and closed negative at 17/18 of the 35 covered companies;
  • Monday opened positive at 33/2, stayed positive at the mid-day at 31/4 and closed positive at 33/2 of the 35 covered companies;

 

Thursday’s (only 10) incliners: these are your selling target lists

  • ReNeuron (RENE.L +$27.00 after Wednesday’s +$16.00, Tuesday’s +$21.00 and Monday’s +$4.00);
  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$4.99 after Wednesday’s +$1.87, Tuesday’s -$2.62 and Monday’s +$6.32;
  • bluebird bio (BLUE +$3.46);
  • Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT +$2.98 after Wednesday’s +$3.59, Tuesday’s +$1.34 and Monday’s +$4.74);
  • Regenxbio (RGNX +$2.19 after Wednesday’s +$1.62);
  • Pluristem (PSTI +$2.12);
  • Fate Therapeutics (FATE +$1.60 after Wednesday’s+$1.45);
  • Editas Medicine (EDIT +$1.52 after Wednesday’s -$0.51);
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$1.37 after Wednesday’s +$3.09, Tuesday’s -$0.88 and Monday’s +$2.79);
  • Mesoblast (MESO +$1.24);

Thursday’s (only 7) decliners:

  • uniQure NV (QURE -$2.50 after Wednesday’s +$3.54, Tuesday’s +$2.67 and Monday’s +$2.11);
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE -$0.98);
  • Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE) -$0.52 after Wednesday’s +$2.31, Tuesday’s -$0.75 and Monday’s +$2.95);
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS -$0.30 after Wednesday’s -$0.63 and Tuesday’s +$0.17);
  • AxoGen (AXGN -$0.13);
  • Athersys (ATHX -$0.06);
  • Brainstorm Cell Therapy (BCLI -$0.01);

 

Today’s stand-outs:

  • 6-days of upside - Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT);
  • 5-day repeater – ReNeuron (RENE.L);
  • 2-day repeater – Regenxbio (RGNX) and Fate Therapeutics (FATE), Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS) and Homology Medicine (FIXX)
  • Hop-scotching – Biostage (BSTG closed down 4 times and up 3 times in seven (7) sessions;
  • Back on the upside board: CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP), Ultragenyx (RARE), Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) and Homology Medicine (FIXX) to mention a few …
  • 2-day downside repeater – BioLife Solutions (BLFS);
  • After the news of a restructuring – Sage Therapeutics (SAGE) closed down -$0.85 after being up +$0.98 or +3.38% to 30.01;
  • Whacked after a 3-day repeat: uniQure NV (QURE);

 

Volumes versus 3-month averages:

  • Thursday’s volume was moderate as 11 out of the 28-upside had higher than the 3-month minimal volume as only 4 out of the 7-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Wednesday’s volume stayed LOW as 12 out of the 30-upside had higher than the 3-month minimal volume as only 1 out of the 4-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Tuesday’s volume was LOW as 8 out of the 17-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume as only 7 out of the 18-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Monday’s volume was LOW as 6 out of the 33-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume as only 1 out of the 2-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume.

 

Percentage (%) movement/range statistics: the patterns are up for the session and week …

  • Thursday’s % of the 28-upside were +2.51% (SLDB) to +18.49% (RENE.L) while the 11-downside ranged from -0.20% (BCLI) to -4.63% (QURE) were a lot higher than usual. 
  • Wednesday’s % of the 30-upside were +0.34% (VSTM) to +18% (PSTI) while the 4-downside ranged from -2.02% (BLCM) to -8.97% (BSTG) were a lot higher than usual. 
  • Tuesday’s % of the 17-upside were +0.30% (SGMO) to +19.27% (RENE.L) while the 18-downside ranged from -0.63% (STML) to -13.24% (ADRO) were a lot higher than usual. 
  • Monday’s % of the 33-upside were +2.84% (CLBS) to +46.67% (MESO) while the 2-downside ranged from -2.08% (ATHX) to -4.17% (BSTG) were a lot higher than usual. 

 

Sentiment and its indicators: a strong week for equities, the Fed’s loans geared towards small and medium sized businesses, that will total up to $2.3 trillion, falling oil pricing,  the oversold’s recognition and moves to the upside … suggest that investor sentiment is evolving while the duration of COVID-19 remains unknown and jobless claims climb

Defining pandemic disruption: The number of confirmed U.S. coronavirus cases:

  • Thursday to 432,500,
  • Wednesday to 402,900,
  • Tuesday’s 383,200,
  • Monday to 347,003,
  • Friday to 258,214,
  • Last Thursday’s 234,400,

Thursday’s death rate escalated to 14,830 after Wednesday’s 13,007, Tuesday’s 12,021, Monday’s 10.335, Friday’s 6,605 and last Thursday’s 5,607. <John Hopkins University>

 

Upside volume stats: 

  • Thursday: 11 out of the 28-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Wednesday: 12 out of the 30-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Tuesday: 8 out of the 17-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Monday: 6 out of the 33-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;

Downside volume stats:

  • Thursday: 4 out of the 7-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Wednesday: 1 out of the 4-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Tuesday: 7 out of the 18-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Monday: 1 out of the 2-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;

0 flat

 

April

Thursday closed positive with 7 decliners, 28 advancer and 0 flat

Wednesday closed positive with 4 decliners, 30 advancer and 1 flat

Tuesday closed negative with 18 decliners, 17 advancer and 0 flats

Monday closed positive with 2 decliners, 33 advancer and 0 flats

Friday closed negative with 23 decliners, 12 advancer and 0 flats

Thursday closed positive with 10 decliners, 23 advancer and 2 flats

Wednesday (4/1) closed negative with 31 decliners, 4 advancer and 0 flat

 

The BOTTOM LINE:  Staying within the contrarian fence; It is NOT time to buy-in, I’d keep my “powder dry” for the re-test of the test post the next re-test of a possible bottom?

Some investors believe equities are getting ahead of reality where coronavirus shutdowns are likely to weigh on the economy significantly beyond Q2/2020.

Companies without news, burning through cash positions with no partners or collaborators shouldn’t be chewing “Dubble Bubble” especially those dependent on capital market access and without a complete management team

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.