Indication intelligence, analysis and sector perception

RegMed Investors’ (RMi) closing bell: small volume defines the drop of the 20 downsizers

February 13, 2020 5:59pm

As the IBB closed down -0.99% and XBI closed down -1.09% while the Advance/Decline (A/D) line diminishes

Q4 and FY9 results: Ultragenyx (RARE +$0.02) - In Q4/19, reported a net loss of $93.8 M, or $1.62 per share, compared with a net loss for Q4/18 of $87.8 M or $1.73 per share. FY19, the net loss was $402.7 M, or $7.12 per share, basic and diluted, compared with a net loss for FY18 of $197.6 M, or $3.97 per share. RARE also reported $35.6 M in total revenue while FY19 net revenue totaled $103.7 M. Cash reported was $760.4 M, including proceeds of $320 M received from the sale of RARE’s royalty interest in Crysvita in the EU. Runway increased due to 20% reduction in net burn rate -operations and capital expenditures.

It’s an honor to be considered the “canary in the (sectors) coal mine”! Insight is about understanding perception and is putting into context what is relevant to expectation fulfillment …

The Dow closed DOWN -128.11 points (-0.43%), the S&P closed DOWN -5.51 points (-0.16%) and the NASDAQ closed DOWN -13.99 points (-0.14%)

Henry’omics:

Indexes fell on Thursday, slipping from record highs, as the infection and death numbers soared in reported coronavirus cases and questioning the economic impact.

The jump in cases was due to the way Chinese authorities are counting them. Health authorities in Hubei province said Thursday that they changed the way they tabulate case totals — “clinically diagnosed” cases now count toward the “confirmed case” count, resulting in the sudden surge among the latter <CNBC>.

A historical perspective, “during the SARS outbreak of the early 2000s, the S&P 500 lost nearly 13%. It also dropped nearly 6% during the Ebola outbreak in 2014. Thus far, the S&P 500 is actually up since the coronavirus outbreak.”

From this a.m.’s Data Docket - weekly jobless claims rose marginally, but remained near multi-decade lows. The latest read on the U.S. Consumer Price Index — a widely followed measure of inflation — rose 2.5% on a year-over-year basis.

Does the accuracy of estimates, forecasts and “runways” really set you off – selling frenzies are on the horizon – it’s also better in small doses in the earnings’ quicksand.

… We are about to find out!

Second question, what downside protection do you have (?) it’s about risk mitigation?

It's agood time to be in cash and riding out volatility ...

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

· Thursday the IBB closed down -0.99% and XBI closed down -1.09%

· Wednesday the IBB closed up +0.27% and XBI closed up +1.25%

· Tuesday the IBB closed down -0.06% and XBI closed down -0.11%

· Monday the IBB closed up +1.20% and XBI closed up +1.55%

The advance/decline line scenario of 35 covered companies:

· Thursday the close was negative with an A/D line of 13/20, 2 flats of 35 covered;

· Wednesday the close was positive with an A/D line of 26/8, 1 flat of 35 covered;

· Tuesday the close was positive with an A/D line of 22/12, 1 flat of 35 covered;

· Monday the close was positive with an A/D line of 26/6, 3 flats of 35 covered;

Decliners:

· Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$3.89 after Wednesday’s +$4.45, Tuesday’s -$1.96, Monday’s +$6.02 and last Friday’s +$3.52);

· Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT -$3.26 after Wednesday’s +$1.53, Tuesday’s +$0.91 and Monday’s +$1.98);

· bluebird bio (BLUE -$2.07 after Wednesday’s +$1.51, Tuesday’s -$0.60, Monday’s +$2.01 and last Friday’s -$1.34);

· Homology Medicine (FIXX -$0.92);

· Cellectis (CLLS -$0.87);

Incliners:

· Brain Cell Therapeutics (BCLI +$0.68);

· BioLife Solutions (BLFS +$0.68);

· Regenxbio (RGNX +$0.56 after Wednesday’s +$2.31 and Tuesday’s +$0.71);

· CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$0.37);

· Aduro biotechnologies (ADRO +$0.26);

The percentage (%) indicators:

Thursday’s range of the 13-upside was +0.03% (RARE) to +14.41% (BCLI) while the 20-downside ranged from -0.07% (EDIT) to -5.84% (PGEN);
Wednesday’s range of the 26-upside was +0.33% (IONS) to +5.34% (ADRO) while the 8-downside ranged from -0.48% (EDIT) to -5.77% (BSTG);
Tuesday’s range of the 22-upside was +0.15% (STML) to +19.13% (ADVM) while the 12-downside ranged from -0.66% (BLUE) to -10.48% (BLCM after a reverse split);
Monday’s range of the 26-upside was +0.25% (BCLI) to +17.68% (ADVM) while the 6-downside ranged from -0.74% (ATHX) to -4.74% (PSTI);

Upside volume stats: to compare

· Thursday: 5 out of the 13-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;

· Wednesday: 5 out of the 26-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;

· Tuesday: 6 out of the 22-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;

· Monday: 6 out of the 26-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;

Downside volume stats:

· Thursday: 0 out of the 20-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;

· Wednesday: 0 out of the 8-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;

· Tuesday: 1 out of the 12-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;

· Monday: 1 out of the 6-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;

2 flat – BSTG and RENE.L

February

Thursday closed negative with 20 decliners, 13 advancers and 2 flats

Wednesday closed positive with 8 decliners, 26 advancers and 1 flat

Tuesday closed positive with 12 decliners, 22 advancers and 1 flat

Monday closed positive with 6 decliners, 26 advancers and 3 flats

Friday closed negative with 26 decliners, 9 advancers and 0 flat

Thursday closed negative with 23 decliners, 12 advancers and 0 flat

Wednesday closed positive with 5 decliners, 27 advancers and 3 flats

Tuesday closed positive with 5 decliners, 30 advancers and 0 flats

Monday (2/3) closed positive with 8 decliners, 24 advancers and 3 flats

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.

35 companies, 1 interpreter!

Insight, foresight and recommendation

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Editor and Publisher ... Henry McCusker enters his tenth (10th) year at RegMed Investors with past experience in sell-side analysis, buy-side management, corporate management and due diligence.

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The facts stated and the opinions given in this publication are based on data and information considered to be reliable and have been carefully worked into my qualitative analyses and prognoses. However, no guarantee can be given as to their fairness, accuracy or completeness.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.