August 27, 2021 5:24pm

The Biostage (BSTG) Chronicles: what’s the end game of the “pumping” buys of stock in a company with NO clinical trial and only three (3) employees left in a 17,000 sq. foot lab? <Questions to consider – read more>

Pre-open indications: 2 MISS and 3 HITs

My comments try to distinguish the temporary from real pricing digression or progress with a 360-degree view.

The week in review …

Who else is tracking a broad representative index of cell and gene therapy equities – the facts are supported by real numbers?


The Dow closed UP +242.68 points (+0.69); the S&P closed UP +38.37 points (+0.88%) while the Nasdaq closed UP +183.69 points (+1.23%)

 

Henry’omics:

Indexes rose on Friday headed for a winning week as Fed Chair Powell prepared the markets to pull back with words of scaling back its bond buying program by year-end and start tapering its $120 billion in monthly bond purchases this year.

The Dow is up +0.96%, the S&P 500 is +1.52% higher and the Nasdaq is up +2.82%, so far in August.

 

Data Docket: Powell spent the bulk of the speech pushing back on inflation concerns,” he said of the speech, adding that Powell “pushes back on rate liftoff worries, telling markets that the threshold for rate hikes is much higher than tapering.”

 

RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines:

  • Friday opened negative at 14/15, 5 flats and 1 acquired, strayed positive at the mid-day at 31/1, 2 flats and 1 acquired, ending with a positive close of 30/2, 2 flat and 1 acquired;
  • Thursday opened positive at 19/12, 3 flats and 1 acquired, flipped negative at the mid-day at 14/18, 2 flats and 1 acquired, ending with a negative close of 9/23, 2 flat and 1 acquired;
  • Wednesday opened negative at 13/20, 1 flat and 1 acquired, flipped positive at the mid-day at 18/16 and 1 acquired, ending with a positive close of 20/13, 1 flat and 1 acquired;
  • Tuesday opened negative at 16/18 and 1 acquired, stayed negative at the mid-day at 15/17, 2 flats and 1 acquired, ending with a positive close of 21/13, 1 flat and 1 acquired;
  • Monday opened positive at 32/2 and 1 acquired, remained positive at the mid-day to 8/24, 2 flats and 1 acquired, closing positive 32/1, 1 flat and 1 acquired;

 

RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: it’s a taper or not Friday” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12069

 

The Biostage (BSTG) Chronicles: “Facts from filed 10-Q” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12055

 

Q2/21 Earnings releases … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/11542  … to date:

  • Net Income: 3 and Net losses: 23

 

Key Metrics:

  • Sector volume was LOW with 5 of the 30-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with very LOW volume of 1 of 2-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Friday’s percentage (%) of the 30-upside were +0.53% (GBT) to +18.08% (BSTG) while the 2-downside -1.73% (BLFS) to -2.53% (VYGR);

 

The Biostage (BSTG) Chronicles: Friday traded 19,982 (+$0.45 to $3.05) following Thursday trading 3,137 shares, Wednesday traded 18,472 shares traded (+$0.16 to $2.21), Tuesday closed up +$0.28 with 10,590 shares trade after Monday’s +$0.68 with 38,354 shares traded following last Friday’s -$0.07 with 570 shares traded.

Questions to consider:

  • Today is just another fact, how the share trades with the “push/promote” - another typical example,
  • WHAT is BSTG’s value proposition, after all the share price pumping – NO clinical trial?
  • WHAT is the end game of “pumping” the share price as the float is MINIMAL compared to the ever-OUTSTANDING shares?
  • Is a REVERSE in order and a possible SALE of the public listing?
  • WHERE is the SEC?

 

Pre-open Indications: 3 HITs <BUY: Editas Medicine (EDIT +$1.66), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$1.91), Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$5.52)> 2 MISS < Maintaining SELL: Biostage (BSTG +$0.47), bluebird bio (BLUE +$0.20)>

 

There are clear winners and losers

Jumping with share pricing momentum:

  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA), Ultragenyx (RARE), Vericel (VCEL), Sage Therapeutics (SAGE), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) to name 5 of the 30 inclining of the 35 covered

Hammered in today’s market:

  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS), Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR) to name 2 of the 2 declining of the 35 covered

 

Friday’s (10 of 30) incliners:

  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$5.52 after Thursday’s -$3.99, Wednesday’s -$3.86, Tuesday’s +$4.28 and Monday’s +$8.75);
  • Ultragenyx (RARE +$3.97);
  • Vericel (VCEL +$2.98 after Thursday’s -$1.14, Wednesday’s +$1.06, Tuesday’s +$0.20 and Monday’s +$2.31),
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE +$1.92 after Thursday’s +$0.30 and Tuesday’s +$0.31);
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$1.91 after Thursday’s -$3.90, Wednesday’s -$0.66, Tuesday’s +$1.44 and Monday’s +$7.80);
  • Editas Medicine (EDIT +$1.66 after Thursday’s -$1.72, Wednesday’s +$0.87, Tuesday’s -$0.64 and Monday’s +$4.98);
  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY+$1.54 after Thursday’s -$2.53, Wednesday’s +$3.02 and Tuesday’s +$3.50);
  • Fate Therapeutics (FATE+$1.39 after Thursday’s -$1.69, Wednesday’s +$1.41, Tuesday’s -$0.74 and Monday’s +$5.26);
  • uniQure NV (QURE +$0.94 after Thursday’s -$0.37 and Wednesday’s +$0.65);
  • Cellectis SA (CLLS -$+0.89);

Friday’s (2 of 2) decliners:

  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS -$0.98 after Thursday’s +$0.96, Wednesday’s +$9,12, Tuesday’s -$0.27 and Monday’s +$1.38);
  • Voyager therapeutics (VYGR -$0.08);

Closing – 2 –Chinook therapeutics (KDNY), ReNeuron (RENE.L) and 1 -Stemline Therapeutics (STML) – acquired

 

Stats:

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

  • Friday, the IBB closed up +0.23% and XBI closed up +2.66%
  • Thursday, the IBB closed down -0.69% and XBI closed down -0.45%
  • Wednesday, the IBB closed up +0.67% and XBI closed up +1.10%
  • Tuesday, the IBB closed down -0.28% and XBI closed up +0.01%
  • Monday, the IBB closed up +2.85% and XBI closed up +4.59%

 

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

  • Friday was down -2.51 points or -13.32% at 16.33
  • Thursday was up +2.05 points or +12.21% at 18.84
  • Wednesday was down -0.43 points or -2.50% at 16.79
  • Tuesday was up +0.07 points or +0.41% at 17.22
  • Monday was down -1.41 points or -7.60% at 17.15

 

Upside volume:

  • Friday:  5 out of the 30-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Thursday:  3 out of the 9-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Wednesday:  2 out of the 20-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Tuesday:  3 out of the 21-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Monday: 1 out of the 1-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;

 

Downside volume:

  • Friday: 1 out of the 2-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Thursday: 2 out of the 23-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Wednesday: 3 out of the 13-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Tuesday: 1 out of the 12-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Monday: 10 out of the 32-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;

 

Percentage (%) movement/range statistics: price versus percentage …

  • Friday’s percentage (%) of the 30-upside were +0.53% (GBT) to +18.08% (BSTG) while the 2-downside -1.73% (BLFS) to -2.53% (VYGR);
  • Thursday’s percentage (%) of the 9-upside were +0.07% (MDXG) to +17.65% (BSTG) while the 23-downside -0.18% (RARE) to -4.65% (CLBS);
  • Wednesday’s percentage (%) of the 20-upside were +0.28% (AGTC) to +19.62% (BLFS) while the 13-downside -0.19% (RGNX) to -5.72% (BLCM);
  • Tuesday’s percentage (%) of the 21-upside were +0.38% (VCEL) to +9.21% (BLCM) while the 12-downside -0.41% (RGNX) to -3.95% (PGEN);
  • Monday’s percentage (%) of the 32-upside were +0.31% (ALNY) to +56.20% (BSTG) while the 1-downside -0.59% (IONS);

 

August, the second month of Q3/21:

Friday closed positive with 30 advancers, 2 decliners, 2 flats and 1 acquired

Thursday closed negative with 9 advancers, 23 decliners, 2 flats and 1 acquired

Wednesday closed positive with 20 advancers, 13 decliners, 1 flat and 1 acquired

Tuesday closed positive with 21 advancers, 12 decliners, 1 flat and 1 acquired

Monday (8/23) closed positive with 32 advancers, 1 decliner, 1 flat and 1 acquired

 

The BOTTOM LINE: As I had stated, “Investor conviction and any trust is being challenged even as the sector rises and falls, I … still believe a … “conflagration” is coming” … as the condition of being oversold resonates in comparison or based on the last few months of share pricing!

Reiterating, being overbought sets-up another “SELLING “condition” as the month of August ends.

When you’re on a roller coaster, the only thing you can be sure of is you’ll end up back where you started.

Q2 reporting season has essentially run its course; although a few remain with my questions of WHY so late …?

A tool that hasn’t resonated … guidance is one factor of the sector.

I am keeping an eye on “runways” … as 2024 seems to be timing factor for most.

I’m STILL a “beware or the cautious man” whose focus has always been “warning analysis” … earnings’ season is NOT over … my advice, trim and skim any new highs if one can!”

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.

Regulation Analyst Certification ("Reg AC"): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.