August 3, 2022 4:44pm

Hate to be a kill-joy, the “algos” are salivating

Pre-open indications: 10 HITs and 2 MISS

Follow-up News: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$70.04) gains billions on results of heart drug trial with shares up +43.67%, giving the company a market cap of $25.44 billion.

Earnings’ Update: below

WHY and HOW is this market affecting the cell and gene therapy sector … “The Bottom Line” underlines the framework of share pricing actions.  Who else is tracking a broad grouping of cell and gene therapy equities – can you afford to not read facts supported by real numbers?

No tunnel vision here, I get into the weeds of daily share pricing and causes 

If I have learned one thing as a former research analyst, venture and public fund investor now a journalist; it is that your life and your bank account are largely tied to your knowledge of price movements and questioning pricing targets.

 

The Dow closed UP +416.33 points (+1.28%); the S&P closed UP +63.98 points (+1.56%) while the Nasdaq closed UP +319.40 points (+2.59%)

 

Henry’omics:

Indexes rallied Wednesday, as traders cheered better-than-expected economic data.

·         Many talk about a coming recession, I believe we are in it!

Economic Data Docket: The ISM non-manufacturing purchasing managers index showed a surprise rebound in July. The reading came in at 56.7, above 55.3 in June. Economists were expecting 54. June factory orders also came in better than expected, rising 2%. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones were expecting a gain of 1.2%.

·         A surprise rebound in July services PMI shook off worries that the U.S. has already fallen into a recession, sending traders back to beaten-down tech stocks. The index released Wednesday ended three months of declines. Data on durable goods orders and manufacturing in June were also better than expected. <CNBC>

Earnings’ Update:

·         Vericel (VCEL) reported a net loss of -$9 M or -$0.19 per share with $131M in cash and a runway to 2025.

·         Editas Medicine (EDIT) reported a quarterly loss of -$53.5 M or -$0.78 per share with a cash position of $527.6 m and a runway until 2024; shares have lost about 37.9% since the beginning of the year.

·         MiMedx (MDXG) reported a net loss of -$10.9 M or -$0.11 with $72.5 M in cash and a runway until 2024.

·         AxoGen (AXGN) reported a new loss of -$2.6 M or -$0.06 per share with $64.3 M in cash and a runway until 2024.

·         Fate Therapeutics (FATE) reported a new loss of -$76.1 m or -$0.79 per share with $580.8 M in cash and a runway until 2025

 

RegMed Investor’s (RMi) Pre-Open: “earnings and more earnings with a few shots-in -the dark” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12546   

 

RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene Therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: what happened …

  • Wednesday’s advance/decline line opened positive at 33 up/ 1 down and 1 flat, stayed positive with 33 up/0 down and 1 flat at the mid-day, ending with a positive close of 31/3 and 1 flat.

 

Pre-open Indications: 10 HITs <Biostage (OTCQB: BSTG $0.00 with 56 shares traded); Sell into Strength:  Verve Therapeutics (VERV +$2.83); Positive Indications: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$70.04), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$2.24), Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$7.64), uniQure NV (QURE +$0.46), Caribou Biosciences (CRBU +$0.55), Editas Medicine (EDIT +$2.21), MiMedx (MDXG +$0.25), AxoGen (AXGN +$0.19)> 2 MISS < Fate Therapeutics (FATE +$2.18), Vericel (VCEL -$0.08)>

 

Key Metrics:

  • Wednesday - Sector volume was LOW with 14 of the 31-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with LOW volume of 1 of 3-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

  • Wednesday, the IBB was up +3.83% and the XBI was up +3.82%

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

  • Wednesday was down -1.99 points or -8.32% at 21.94

 

Jumping with share pricing momentum (10 of 31):

  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$70.04 after Tuesday’s +$2.02 and Monday’s -$2.09),
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$7.64 after Tuesday’s +$1.32 and Monday’s -$2.02),
  • Beam therapeutics (BEAM +$3.87),
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS closed +$3.84 after Tuesday’s -$0.31),
  • Verve Therapeutics (VERV +$2.83 after Tuesday’s +$1.04 and Monday’s -$2.02),
  • Ultragenyx (RARE +$2.32 after Tuesday’s +$0.65 and Monday’s -$2.65),
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$2.99 after Tuesday’s -$2.33 and Monday’s -$0.99),
  • Editas Medicine (EDIT +$2.21 after Tuesday’s +$0.64),
  • Regenxbio (RGNX +$2.18 after Tuesday’s +$0.77 and Monday’s -$0.33),
  • Fate Therapeutics (FATE +$2.18 after Tuesday’s +$0.59 and Monday’s -$0.49),

Flat:

  • Biostage (BSTG $0.00 after Tuesday’s $0.00 and Monday’s $0.00)

Closing down (3 of 3):

  • Vericel (VCEL -$0.08),
  • Brainstorm cell therapeutics (BCLI -$0.07),
  • Solid Biosciences (SLDB -$0.0169),

 

August, Q3/2022:

  • Wednesday closed positive with 31 incliner, 3 decliners and 1 flat

 

The BOTTOM LINE: I try to keep it simple … and short!

As I have been writing … “I am STILL … NOT convinced the lows are in the cell and gene therapy sector.”

Volume is still low …

Although, I’m STILL a firm believer in the flight of Icarus …  since the cell and gene therapy equities have oscillated between gains and losses since the first of the year... a bigger “slip” is on the way – maybe NOT today but, it’s coming!

Hold-on (to the railing) as our portfolios weather these volatile sessions as an ordinary practice.

The coming next two (2) weeks will reveal more about the cell and gene therapy sector's state of health.

This week, the cell and gene therapy sector Q2 earnings continue full-force: Agenus (AGEN) and Intellia therapeutics (NTLA) and Sangamo Therapeutics (SGMO) on 8/4 followed by Precigen (PGEN) and Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT) on 8/8 before Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS) on 8/9.

investors should be bracing for a milder-than-usual earnings season and downwardly LPS (loss-per-share) predictions,

I find it very interesting to evaluate share price over earnings as a proxy for performance.

We always need a villain and they are multiplying – “Earnings’ season is coming, investors NEED to focus on LPS (loss-per-share), collaboration revenues and cash positions i.e., runways”.

I stick to my view of anticipating the risks – as my careers focus has been “warning analysis”.

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.

Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.