August 12, 2022 5:05pm

The question is … investors might feel good this week but, how long will uptrend last as the trend has not been a friend forever?

Pre-open indications: 5 HIT and 0 MISS

WHY and HOW is this market affecting the cell and gene therapy sector … “The Bottom Line” underlines the framework of share pricing actions.  Who else is tracking a broad grouping of cell and gene therapy equities – can you afford to not read facts supported by real numbers?

No tunnel vision here, I get into the weeds of daily share pricing and causes 

If I have learned one thing as a former research analyst, venture and public fund investor now a journalist; it is that your life and your bank account are largely tied to your knowledge of price movements and questioning pricing targets.

 

The Dow closed UP +424.38 points (+1.27%); the S&P closed UP +72.88 points (-+1.73%) while the Nasdaq closed UP +267.27 points (+2.09%)

 

Henry’omics:

Indexes rose sharply on Friday, clinching the fourth (4th) straight positive week for the S&P 500.

The Dow was up +2.92%, the S&P 500 +3.25% on the week while the Nasdaq moved higher by 3.08%; the fourth (4th) positive week in a row.

The Nasdaq has posted its longest weekly winning streak since November.

Economic Data Docket: The University of Michigan consumer index preliminary August reading came in at 55.1, topping expectations of 52.5. One year inflation expectations ticked down to 5.0% from 5.2%, though 5-year expectations rose slightly to 3.0% from 2.9%.

 

RegMed Investor’s (RMi) Pre-Open: “it’s a take your profits and run Friday” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12560

 

RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene Therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: what happened …

  • Friday’s advance/decline line opened positive at 23 up/ 8 down and 4 flats, stayed positive with 28 up/6 and 1 flat at the mid-day, ending with a positive close of 30/4 and 1 flat.
  • Thursday’s advance/decline line opened positive at 26 up/ 8 down and 1 flat, stayed positive with 20 up/13 and 2 flats at the mid-day, turned negative at 2 p.m. at 16/18 and 1 flat, ending with a negative close of 13/20 and 2 flats.
  • Wednesday’s advance/decline line opened positive at 30 up/ 4 down and 1 flat, stayed positive with 31 up/3 and 1 flat at the mid-day, ending with a positive close of 30/4 and 1 flat.
  • Tuesday’s advance/decline line opened negative at 6 up/ 28 down and 1 flat, stayed negative with 4 up/31 and 0 flat at the mid-day, ending with a negative close of 4/29 and 2 flats.
  • Monday’s advance/decline line opened positive at 22 up/ 11 down and 2 flats, flipped negative with 9 up/24 and 2 flats at the mid-day, ending with a barely positive close of 17/16 and 2 flats.

 

Pre-open Indications: 5 HITs <Biostage (OTCQB: BSTG $0.00 with 0 shares traded), BioLife Solutions (BLFS +$0.99), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$1.20), uniQure NV (QURE +$0.69); Sell into Strength:  Verve Therapeutics (VERV +$1.80)> 0 MISS

 

Key Metrics:

  • Friday - Sector volume was LOW with 8 of the 30-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with LOW volume of 2 of 4-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Thursday - Sector volume was HIGH with 7 of the 13-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with LOW volume of 6 of 20-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Wednesday - Sector volume was MODERATE with 10 of the 30-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with LOW volume of 2 of 4-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Tuesday - Sector volume was HIGH with 3 of the 4-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with LOW volume of 9 of 29-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Monday - Sector volume was HIGHER with 9 of the 17-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with LOW volume of 3 of 16-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

  • Friday, the IBB was up +0.94% and the XBI was up +3.30%
  • Thursday, the IBB was down -1.32% and the XBI was down -3.17%
  • Wednesday, the IBB was up +2.41% and the XBI was up +3.31%
  • Tuesday, the IBB was down -1.61% and the XBI was down -3.37%
  • Monday, the IBB was up +0.45% and the XBI was up +1.73%

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

  • Friday was down -0.68 points or -3.37% at 19.52
  • Thursday was up +0.40 points or +2.03% at 20.14
  • Wednesday was down -2.03 points or -9.23% at 19.71
  • Tuesday was up +0.60 points or +2.82% at 21.89
  • Monday was up +0.32 points or +1.51% at 21.47

 

Jumping with share pricing momentum (10 of 30):

  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$4.46 after Thursday’s -$2.61, Wednesday’s +$8.63, Tuesday’s -$7.37 and Monday’s +$12.16),
  • Beam Therapeutics (BEAM +$2.99 after Thursday’s +$0.36, Wednesday’s +$4.77, Tuesday’s -$2.73 and Monday’s +$0.26),
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$2.14 after Thursday’s -$0.94, Wednesday’s +$6.13, Tuesday’s -$3.08 and Monday’s +$0.17),
  • Verve Therapeutics (VERV +$1.80 after Thursday’s +$1.86, Wednesday’s +$3.59, Tuesday’s +$1.17 and Monday’s +$0.50),
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$1.20 after Thursday’s -$1.41, Wednesday’s +$3.74 and Tuesday’s -$6.26),
  • Fate Therapeutics (FATE +$1.17 after Thursday’s +$0.23, Wednesday’s -$0.42, Tuesday’s -$1.30 and Monday’s +$0.72),
  • Vericel (VCEL +$1.05 after Thursday’s +$0.09, Wednesday’s -$0.28, Tuesday’s -$2.41 and Monday’s -$0.93),
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE +$1.01 after Thursday’s -$0.86),
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS =$0.99 after Thursday’s -$0.57 and Wednesday’s +$3.82),
  • uniQure NV (QURE +$0.69 after Thursday’s +$0.16),

Flat:

  • Biostage (BSTG)

Closing down (4 of 4):

  • Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR -$0.41),
  • Mesoblast (MESO -$0.19 after Thursday’s +$0.01),
  • Homology Medicine (FIXX -$0.09),
  • Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM -$0.04),

 

August, Q3/2022:

  • Friday closed positive with 30 incliner, 4 decliners and 1 flat
  • Thursday closed negative with 13 incliner, 20 decliners and 2 flats
  • Wednesday closed positive with 30 incliner, 4 decliners and 1 flat
  • Tuesday closed negative with 4 incliner, 29 decliners and 2 flats
  • Monday closed barely positive with 17 incliner, 16 decliners and 2 flats

 

The BOTTOM LINE: I try to keep it simple … and short!

While I welcome the upside moves; I’m STILL a firm believer in the “flight of Icarus” …  since the cell and gene therapy equities have oscillated between gains and losses since the first of the year!

There are ONLY net and per share losses in Q2. SG&A’s are, I believe “OUT-OF-CONTROL”, CEOs are skimming shareholders with HIGH salaries and perks as share pricing gets hammered on alternate sessions.

The real question is how recently have CEOs bought-into their depreciated share pricing such as two: AVRO and AGTC.

As I have “noticed” yet again from to date reporting, “Most reporting sector companies … to date have reported net losses, lagging revenue estimates … although AXGN, FATE, RGNX and NTLA beat on revenues generating forward motion while ATM use is up.”

 I was proven RIGHT after having written … “I am STILL … skeptical that Tuesday through Friday’s rally can be sustain! I am also NOT convinced that the lows are in the cell and gene therapy sector are behind us.”

The coming weeks will reveal more about the cell and gene therapy sector's state of health.

This week, the cell and gene therapy sector Q2 earnings continue full-force: 29 or 35 have reported, Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI) on 8/15.

I find it very interesting to evaluate share price over earnings and a shortage of revenue reporting as a proxy for performance.

We always need a villain and they are multiplying – We are stuck in “Earnings’ season, investors NEED to focus on LPS (loss-per-share), collaboration revenues and cash positions i.e., runways”.

I stick to my view of anticipating the risks – as my careers focus has been “warning analysis”.

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.

Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.