August 15, 2022 4:55pm

My issue: risks associated with inflation and monetary tightening persist

Pre-open indications: 3 HIT and 3 MISS

WHY and HOW is this market affecting the cell and gene therapy sector … “The Bottom Line” underlines the framework of share pricing actions.  Who else is tracking a broad grouping of cell and gene therapy equities – can you afford to not read facts supported by real numbers?

No tunnel vision here, I get into the weeds of daily share pricing and causes

 

If I have learned one thing as a former research analyst, venture and public fund investor now a journalist; it is that your life and your bank account are largely tied to your knowledge of price movements and questioning pricing targets.

 

The Dow closed UP +151.58 points (+0.45%); the S&P closed UP +16.99 points (+0.40%) while the Nasdaq closed UP +80.87 points (+0.67%)

 

Henry’omics:

Indexes rose on Monday as the rally as traders prepared for a big week for retail earnings.

An appropriate quote, “I think what this market is doing a really good job at is making a lot of people feel very uncomfortable,” said Truist’s Keith Lerner. “The way the market’s trading, it’s already been braced for bad news, so once it gets it, it doesn’t hurt the market because it’s already prepared for it.”

 

RegMed Investor’s (RMi) Pre-Open: “chutes and ladders, Monday. As I wrote Friday night, “The question is … investors might feel good this week but, how long will uptrend last as the trend has not been a friend forever?” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12562

 

RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene Therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: what happened …

  • Monday’s advance/decline line opened negative at 14 up/ 20 down and 1 flat, flipped positive with 20 up/14 and 1 flat at the mid-day, ending with a positive close of 26/8 and 1 flat.

 

Pre-open Indications: 3 HITs <Biostage (OTCQB: BSTG $0.00 with 0 shares traded), uniQure NV (QURE +$0.40); Sell into Strength:  Verve Therapeutics (VERV +$2.27)> 3 MISS <Regenxbio (RGNX +$0.13), BioLife Solutions (BLFS +$1.42), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$1.48)>

 

Key Metrics:

  • Monday - Sector volume was HIGHER with 5 of the 26-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with LOW volume of 3 of 8-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

  • Monday, the IBB was up +1.74% and the XBI was up +1.19%

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

  • Monday was up +0.30 points or +1.54% at 19.83

 

Jumping with share pricing momentum (10 of xx):

  • Vericel (VCEL +$2.40 after Friday’s +$1.05),
  • Verve Therapeutics (VERV +$2.27 after Friday’s +$1.80),
  • Fate Therapeutics (FATE +$2.24 after Friday’s +$1.17),
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP =$1.48 after Friday’s +$1.20),
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS +$1.42 after Friday’s +$0.99),
  • Beam Therapeutics (BEAM +$1.23 after Friday’s +$2.99),
  • AxoGen (AXGN +$0.93),
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$0.68 after Friday’s +$2.14),
  • uniQure NV (QURE +$0.40 after Friday’s +$0.69),
  • Chinook Therapeutics (KDNY +$0.37),

Flat:

  • Biostage (BSTG)

Closing down (8 of 8):

  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$2.84 after Friday’s +$4.46),
  • Ultragenyx (RARE -$0.37),
  • Editas Medicine (EDIT -$0.31),
  • Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM -$0.06 after Friday’s -$0.04),
  • Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR -$0.05 after Friday’s -$0.41),
  • Bellicum Pharmaceuticals (BLCM -$0.04),
  • BrainStorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI -$0.02),
  • Mesoblast (MESO-$0.02 after Friday’s -$0.019),

 

August, Q3/2022:

  • Monday closed positive with 26 incliner, 8 decliners and 1 flat

 

The BOTTOM LINE: I try to keep it simple … and short!

More than a bit of a difficulty today from yesterday, had to get walking stick out for use - back injury; not 35 anymore as 50 lb. leaf blower and heavy yard work times are now - OVER <a favorite> and headed to chiropractor.

Thanks, Dr. Richard B. Waller, D.C. (Bolton, Mass) who was able to get me walking again!!!

While I welcome the upside moves; I’m STILL a firm believer in the “flight of Icarus” …  since the cell and gene therapy equities have oscillated between gains and losses since the first of the year!

There are ONLY net and per share losses in Q2. SG&A’s are, I believe “OUT-OF-CONTROL”, CEOs are skimming shareholders with HIGH salaries and perks as share pricing gets hammered on alternate sessions.

The real question is how recently have CEOs bought-into their depreciated share pricing such as two: AVRO and AGTC.

As I have “noticed” yet again from to date reporting, “Most reporting sector companies … to date have reported net losses, lagging revenue estimates … although AXGN, FATE, RGNX and NTLA beat on revenues generating forward motion while ATM use is up.”

 I was proven RIGHT after having written … “I am STILL … skeptical that Tuesday through Friday’s rally can be sustain! I am also NOT convinced that the lows are in the cell and gene therapy sector are behind us.”

The coming weeks will reveal more about the cell and gene therapy sector's state of health.

I find it very interesting to evaluate share price over earnings and a shortage of revenue reporting as a proxy for performance.

We always need a villain and they are multiplying – We are stuck in “Earnings’ season, investors NEED to focus on LPS (loss-per-share), collaboration revenues and cash positions i.e., runways”.

I stick to my view of anticipating the risks – as my careers focus has been “warning analysis”.

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.

Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.