October 10, 2018 5:46pm

Algorithmic processes were the greater influence disrupting 42 sector companies who missed the elevator, 2 walked the stairs and 1 cowered out of 45 covered equities; although, “I’m still waiting for the next elevator for some sector equities to go up”

Even I am perplexed, is it always algorithmic rules, or is it clinical risks, interest rates, political issues, trade disagreements, sentiment?  No it’s … CONFIDENCE!

Pre-open indications: 1 HITs and 3 MISS

Out and about: FDA has lifted the clinical hold and accepted the IND for CTX001 for the treatment of sickle cell disease (SCD) from  CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) and Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX) . The aftermarket indication for CRSP is a positive +$4.96 or +13.54%.

Financing: Audentes Therapeutics (BOLD -$6.88) dives after proposing a $150 M offering and a $22.5 M overallotment.   Histogenics (HSGX -$0.04 or -7.21% to $0.52) is still diving as downside volume (5.83 M shares after yesterday’s 2.58 M shares) increases following proposed 26.15 M share and warrant offering priced at $0.65?  It’s still a “sucker’s bet” – pricing after a failed P3 trial?

RMi puts the facts into evidence for the metrics to speak; my motto, “Never leave an investor uninformed”! 

A daily report may say little or a lot and its final judgement may be inconclusive; yet it serves as insurance that all indications are being examined and evaluated.

 

Daily analytics and metrics:

  • The Dow closed down – 831.83 points or -3.15 % to 25,598.74
  • The S&P closed down –94.66 points or -3.29% to 2,785.68
  • The NASDAQ closed down –315.97 points or – 4.08% to 7,422.05

 

The advance/decline line scenario of 45 covered companies:   

  • The open was negative with an A/DL of 15/27 and 3 flats;
  • The mid-day was negative with an A/DL of 8/37 and 1 flat;
  • The close was negative with an A/DL of 2/42 and 1 flat;

 

Pre-open indications: 1 HIT and 3 MISS

  • bluebird bio (BLUE) closed down -$8.54 – hit;
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) closed down-$0.21 – miss;
  • Editas Medicine (EDIT) closed down -$1.77 miss;
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA) closed down -$1.24 – miss;

 

Out and about:

CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) and Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated (VRTX) announced that the U.S. FDA has lifted the clinical hold and accepted the Investigational New Drug application (IND) for CTX001 for the treatment of sickle cell disease (SCD).  CTX001 is an investigational, autologous, gene-edited hematopoietic stem cell therapy for patients suffering from severe hemoglobinopathies.

In addition to the acceptance of the IND announced today, CRSP and VRTX previously announced that they had obtained approvals of Clinical Trial Applications for CTX001 in multiple countries outside the U.S. for both β-thalassemia and SCD.

CRSP and VRTX remain on track to initiate a P1/2 clinical study in SCD by the end of 2018 and are currently enrolling patients with transfusion dependent β-thalassemia in a P1/2 trial in β-thalassemia in Europe.

 

Five (5) key metrics: 

… The greatest volume to the downside:  HSGX, VSTM, MDXG, BMRN and BLUE

… Upside volume was weighted to:  XON and CLBS

… Leadership ($) to the downside:  RENE.L (-$9.00), BLUE (-$8.54), SAGE (-$7.35), BOLD (-6.88) and BMRN (-$5.83)

… Best moves ($) to the upside:  XON (+$0.29) and CLBS (+$0.34)

… The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) closed:

  • Wednesday was down -3.32% after NOT indicating in the pre-market;
  • Tuesday was down -0.45% after indicating a NEGATIVE -0.04% in the pre-market;
  • Monday was down -0.76% after NOT indicating in the pre-market;
  • Friday was down -1.15% after NOT indicating in the pre-market;
  • Thursday was down -2.79% % after NOT indicating in the pre-market;
  • Last Wednesday was up +0.74% after NOT indicating in the pre-market;

 

Henry’omics:

I even BROKE my own “rule” today by “betting-on” the CRISPRS and thinking they had enough of the downside!  Yet, I just might have been EARLY – as CRSP and VRTX got a green light on their joint IND.

Sector equities fell with a steep decline in biotech shares and worries of rapidly rising rates had the street experiencing its worst day in eight months.

The Dow posted its biggest one-day drops since early February, while the NASDAQ notched its largest single day sell-off since June 24, 2016. The S&P 500 dropped posting a five-day losing streak — it’s longest since November 2016 — and fell below its 50-day and 100-day moving averages, widely followed technical levels.

For October, the S&P 500 is down -4.4% and the Dow is down 3.3%. The NASDAQ has lost more than 7.5%.

Of the 45 companies covered on Wednesday; 42 downside equities finished in a range of -0.16% (AGTC) to -18.73% (BOLD – an offering in process) while 2 upside equities oscillated from +1.84% (XON) to +7.57% (CLBS) with 1 flat close (BSTG).

4th time, “I reiterate that investors remain – DEFENSIVE!”

Volume is still LOW … look at the depth – 1 out of 2 of the upside had higher (than the 3 month average) volume while the downside shrunk with 21 had greater volume (than the 3month average) out of 42.

 

Out and about:

As I have been saying for the seven (7) sessions, “Keep an eye on the CRISPERS:

  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP closed down -$0.21 after Tuesday’s +$0.29 after Monday’s -$2.00) while Editas Medicine (EDIT closed down again -$1.77 after Tuesday’s -$0.10 after Monday’s -$0.71) and Intellia (NTLA closed down again -$1.24 after Tuesday’s -$0.66 after Monday’s -$0.14. Even I surprised myself having a BUY on CRSP, EDIT and NTLA as a real roller-coaster keeps its downward roll this week even BEFORE Q3 LPS (loss-per-share) earnings!

Applied Genetic Technologies (AGTC) closed down another -$0.01 after Tuesday’s -$0.19, Monday’s -$0.29, Friday’s -$0.08, Thursday’s +$0.34 and last Wednesday’s -$0.12– it will turn soon even without data!

BioLife Solutions (BLFS) closed down -$0.52 after Tuesday’s +$0.26, Monday’s -0.67, Friday’s +$0.22, Thursday’s -$0.48, and last Wednesday’s -$2.62.  BLFS preliminary revenue from sales of media products reached $5.3 million after Q2’s $5.2M while the 52 week change slips to +137.34. I still think it is OVERBOUGHT, be prepared for the cost of revenue number – aftermarket indication -$0.02 or -0.16% - Maintaining SELL.

Caladrius Biosciences (CLBS) closed up +$0.34 (a flash in a pan of fire) after Tuesday’s -$0.52, Monday’s -$0.34, and Friday’s -$0.34. I’ve maintained a SELL due to spending issues, lack of a partner and managements myopic vision – Maintaining SELL although it will be a tug-of-war in share pricing.

SAGE Therapeutics (SAGE) closed down again -$7.35 after Tuesday’s -$7.12 after Monday’s +$0.49. Even I got “whacked” on this one

Verastem Oncology (VSTM) closed down -$0.60 after Tuesday’s +$0.17 and Monday’s -$0.24. My major issue in share pricing is the side effects of this drug and a BOXED WARNING for four fatal and/or serious toxicities: infections, diarrhea or colitis, cutaneous reactions, and pneumonitis. Additionally, use of COPIKTRA is also associated with adverse reactions which may require dose reduction, treatment delay or discontinuation of COPIKTRA. WARNINGS AND PRECAUTIONS are provided for infections, diarrhea or colitis, cutaneous reactions, pneumonitis, hepatotoxicity, neutropenia, and embryo-fetal toxicity. The most common ADVERSE REACTIONS (reported in ≥ 20% of patients) were diarrhea or colitis, neutropenia, rash, fatigue, pyrexia, cough, nausea, upper respiratory infection, pneumonia, musculoskeletal pain, and anemia;

 

From the pre-open newsletter: “I’m still waiting for a bounce-back in some sector equities. I’d be a BUYER of attractive “bottoms”; ignoring a few as Q3 “earnings” expectation i.e. LPS (Loss-per-Share numbers) are soon to be problematic.”

 

October sessions:

Wednesday closed NEGATIVE with 42 decliners, 2 advancers and 1 flat;

Tuesday closed NEGATIVE with 23 decliners, 18 advancers and 4 flats;

Monday closed NEGATIVE with 34 decliners, 10 advancers and 1 flat;

Friday closed NEGATIVE with 26 decliners, 17 advancers and 2 flat;

Thursday closed NEGATIVE with 35 decliners, 8 advancers and 2 flat;

Wednesday closed POSITIVE with 16 decliners, 27 advancers and 2 flat;

Tuesday closed NEGATIVE with 32 decliners, 12 advancers and 1 flat

Monday (10/1) closed NEGATIVE with 33 decliners, 13 advancers and 1 flat;

  • In 19 sessions in September – there were 10 negative closes and 9 positive close;
  • In 21 August sessions – 6 had negative and 15 had positive closes

 

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.