RegMed Investors’ (RMi) closing bell: never bend down for a falling knife, it could bounce off the tile and draw blood

April 13, 2020 5:57pm

"Our” universe is a rotational and range bound sector as testing the lows is a challenge

Pre-open news indications: 3 HITs <ALNY, ATHX and PSTI> and 0 MISS

What I provide is an “intelligence newspaper” to ensure that shareholders are kept apprised based on a 24-hour surveillance of “our” universe, the RegMed/cell and gene therapy sector and its surrounding markets. Check the BOTTOM LINE … <read more>

The Dow closed DOWN -328.60 points (-1.39%), the S&P closed DOWN -28.19 points (-1.01%) while the NASDAQ closed UP +38.85 (+0.48 %)

Henry’omics:

Indexes slumped on Monday giving back last week’s gains as share pricing risks continue to slide!

• Towards the close, the Nasdaq bucked the broader market’s negative trend and closed positive.

I wasn’t wrong when I stated Thursday, “As the market “train” moves forward, it’s still dark in the tunnel and the trestles are not totally nailed!”

The algorithm driven electronic machines are “whirring” but, not melting the sector – notice the volume indicators.

• The biggest question is the … timing of the reopening of the economy now being debated and the economic effects of the engineered shutdown?

 I am STILL urging investors to remain patient yet, wary and watchful of the unemployment numbers which have overlooked the number of people under-employed by the absence of most Americans able to go to work – simply stated.

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

• Monday, the IBB closed up +0.46% and XBI also closed down -0.16%;
• Friday was a market holiday
• Thursday, the IBB closed up +0.91% and XBI also closed up +1.88%

Volatility in the market is usually inversely correlated in the short-term. The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

• Monday was down -0.50 points or -1.20% at 41.17,
• Friday was a market holiday
• Thursday was down -1.78 points or -4.11% at 41.54,
• Two weeks ago, in March, the VIX eclipsed its financial crisis high, closing at 82.69.

RegMed/Cell and gene therapy 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: progressions and regressions …

• Monday opened negative at 16/17 and 2 flats, stayed negative at the mid-day at 11/24 and closed negative at 16/19 of the 35 covered companies;
• Friday was a market holiday
• Thursday opened positive at 32/3, stayed positive at the mid-day at 31/4 and closed positive at 28/7 of the 35 covered companies;

Monday’s (top 10) incliners:

• ReNeuron (RENE.L +$13.00 following Thursday’s +$27.00 after Wednesday’s +$16.00, Tuesday’s +$21.00 and last Monday’s +$4.00);
• Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$2.63 following Thursday’s+$4.99 after Wednesday’s +$1.87, Tuesday’s -$2.62 and last Monday’s +$6.32;
• uniQure NV (QURE +$1.23 following Thursday’s -$2.50 after Wednesday’s +$3.54, Tuesday’s +$2.67 and Monday’s +$2.11);
• Bellicum Pharmaceuticals (BLCM +$0.95);
• Pluristem (PSTI +$0.94 following +$2.12);
• Cellectis SA (CLLS +$0.78);
• Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE +$0.73 following Thursday’s -$0.52 after Wednesday’s +$2.31, Tuesday’s -$0.75 and last Monday’s +$2.95);
• Athersys (ATHX +$0.55 following Thursday’s -$0.06);
• Brainstorm Cell Therapy (BCLI +$0.43 following Thursday’s -$0.01);
• BioLife Solutions (BLFS +$0.31 following Thursday’s -$0.30 after Wednesday’s -$0.63 and last Tuesday’s +$0.17);

Monday’s (bottom 10) decliners:

• Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS -$1.75);
• Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR -$1.00);
• Homology Medicine (FIXX -$0.64);
• bluebird bio (BLUE -$0.59 following Thursday’s +$3.46);
• Sage Therapeutics (SAGE -$0.58 following Thursday’s -$0.98);
• Vericel (VCEL -$0.54);
• Regenxbio (RGNX -$0.53 following Thursday’s +$2.19 and Wednesday’s +$1.62);
• Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$0.42);
• Sangamo Therapeutics (SGMO -$0.31);
• Biostage (BSTG -$0.25);

Today’s stand-outs: target the patterns

• 6-session repeater – ReNeuron (RENE.L);
• 4-session repeater – Fate Therapeutics (FATE);
• 3-session repeater: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Fate therapeutics (FATE);
• 2-session repeater – CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP), Pluristem (PSTI) and Editas Medicine (EDIT),
• Back on the upside board: Ultragenyx (RARE) to mention a few …
• Hop-scotching – Biostage (BSTG closed down in 5 sessions and up 3 times in the last eight (8) sessions;
• 1 down session after 6-sessions of upside - Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT);
• 2-session downside repeater – after the news of a restructuring – Sage Therapeutics (SAGE) and AxoGen (AXGN)

Volumes versus 3-month averages: low volume is moving the needle

• Monday’s volume was even LOWER as 5 out of the 16-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume and only 3 out of the 19-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
• Friday was a market holiday;
• Thursday’s volume was moderate as 11 out of the 28-upside had higher than the 3-month minimal volume as only 4 out of the 7-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;

Percentage (%) movement/range statistics: the patterns are up although down for the week …

• Monday’s % of the 16-upside were +0.33% (FATE) to +19% (BLCM) while the 19-downside ranged from -0.35% (GBT) to -9.70% (VYGR) were a lot higher than usual. 
• Friday was a market holiday;
• Thursday’s % of the 28-upside were +2.51% (SLDB) to +18.49% (RENE.L) while the 11-downside ranged from -0.20% (BCLI) to -4.63% (QURE) were a lot higher than usual. 

Sentiment and its indicators: investor sentiment is being dissolved as the duration of COVID-19 remains unknown and jobless climb

Defining pandemic disruption: The number of confirmed U.S. coronavirus cases:

• Monday to 560,800,

Monday’s death rate escalated to 22,861 <John Hopkins University>

Upside volume stats: 

• Monday: 5 out of the 16-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
• Friday was market holiday;
• Thursday: 11 out of the 28-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;

Downside volume stats:

• Monday: 3 out of the 19-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
• Friday was a market holiday;
• Thursday: 4 out of the 7-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;

April

Monday closed negative with 19 decliners, 16 advancer and 0 flats

Friday was a market holiday

Thursday closed positive with 7 decliners, 28 advancer and 0 flat

Wednesday closed positive with 4 decliners, 30 advancer and 1 flat

Tuesday closed negative with 18 decliners, 17 advancer and 0 flats

Monday closed positive with 2 decliners, 33 advancer and 0 flats

Friday closed negative with 23 decliners, 12 advancer and 0 flats

Thursday closed positive with 10 decliners, 23 advancer and 2 flats

Wednesday (4/1) closed negative with 31 decliners, 4 advancer and 0 flat

The BOTTOM LINE:  NOT budging or straying beyond “the contrarian fence; It is NOT time to buy-in as rotational issues are mostly devious other than to news flow.  I’d keep my “powder dry” for the re-test of the test post the next re-test of a possible bottom?”

• Some investors believe equities are getting ahead of reality where coronavirus shutdowns are likely to weigh on the economy significantly beyond Q2/2020;
• Companies without news, burning through cash positions with no partners or collaborators shouldn’t be chewing “Dubble Bubble” especially those dependent on capital market access and without a complete management team

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.