October 4, 2017 6:50pm
With a negative open, a positive mid-day and a barely positive close
Some dump, others sputter to the upside while flats glide as bluebird (BLUE) and MiMedx (MDXG) lead the session while Capricor’s (CAPR) hype and over-extension gets the worst of it
Some view the sector as being ready for another meltdown!
Pre-open indications: 4 hits and 3 miss
Out and about: bluebird bio, Inc. (BLUE) announced that interim data from an initial cohort of 17 patients in the ongoing P2/3 Starbeam Study (ALD-102) evaluating Lenti-D™ investigational gene therapy in boys with cerebral adrenoleukodystrophy (CALD) were published in the New England Journal of Medicine (NEJM)…
The interpretation of the truth of “our” universe is reported - here!
I answer one question, in which company should investors commit and keep their money. In the grip of rotating cycles and disparaging trends, what is the price of sector knowledge – a subscription!
Wednesday’s results have implications to Thursday’s sector activity as a daily report may say little or a lot and it serves as insurance that all indications are being examined and evaluated!
Henry’omics:
From the pre-open’s newsletter “correlation not causation; when there is a common cause between trades, then they will be connected to the up or downside!”
As I had stated, “Referencing the title, anytime you decide to make a trade, you’re making some assumptions about how equity will appreciate or depreciate or remain static. That is, you’re making assumptions about the underlying effects of possible actions.”
The more I write about the sector watching the movement of equities, the more I realized the meagre state of knowledge on the sector.
Volatility in “our” universe has also been kind of lackadaisical!
The cell therapy sector’s record over the last 2 sessions (of 43 covered companies):
· Tuesday closed NEGATIVE with 23 decliners, 18 advancers and 2 flats;
· Monday closed POSITIVE with 14 decliners, 26 advancers and 3 flats;
Every day we see the alternating flow of the sector, and then there are big moves and barely evident highs. That said, after last Wednesday through Monday were up, there is a probability of another down Thursday.
Pre-open indications: 4 hits and 3 miss
· Capricor (CAPR) closed down -$0.05 – miss;
· Spark Therapeutics (ONCE) closed down -$0.66 – hit;
· Cesca Therapeutics (KOOL) closed down -$0.40 – hit;
· Histogenics (HSGX) closed up +$0.02 – hit;
· Sangamo Therapeutics (SGMO) closed up +$0.25 – miss;
· Vericel (VCEL) closed up +$0.025 – miss;
· Verastem (VSTM) closed down -$0.03 – hit;
Out and about:
bluebird bio, Inc. (BLUE) announced that interim data from an initial cohort of 17 patients in the ongoing P2/3 Starbeam Study (ALD-102) evaluating Lenti-D™ investigational gene therapy in boys with cerebral adrenoleukodystrophy (CALD) were published in the New England Journal of Medicine (NEJM).
- The Starbeam Study is a global, multi-center study assessing the efficacy and safety of an investigational gene therapy in boys up to 17 years of age with CALD. As of the April 25, 2017 data cut off for the publication, 16 of the 17 patients had completed the primary analysis period (24 months or discontinuation).
- The primary efficacy endpoint for the Starbeam Study is the proportion of patients who are alive and have no major functional disabilities (MFDs) at 24 months post drug product infusion. MFDs are the six severe disabilities commonly attributed to CALD that, if present, would have a profound negative impact on patients’ lives: loss of communication, cortical blindness, tube feeding, total incontinence, wheelchair dependence and complete loss of voluntary movement. The primary safety endpoint is the proportion of patients who experience Grade 2+ acute GVHD or chronic GVHD at 24 months post-treatment. Secondary and exploratory assessments include Neurologic Function Score (NFS; a scoring system of 15 symptoms/signs across multiple domains used to evaluate the severity of gross neurologic dysfunction), gadolinium enhancement on MRI (an indicator of neuroinflammation), MRI Loes score (a method for quantifying brain lesions in patients with CALD using brain MRI), and additional safety assessments.
Some of MY working trend lines or indications:
… The greatest volume to the downside: CAPR, IMUC, ONVO, BSTG and JUNO
… Upside volume was weighted to: MDXG, CYTX, SGMO, NWBO and XON
… Biggest $ downside: ONCE (-$0.66), KOOL (-$0.40), JUNO (-$0.19), ONVO (-$0.17) and CAPR (-$0.16)
… Largest $ upside: BLUE (+$1.85), MDXG (+$0.72), CLLS (+$0.48), XON (+$0.35) and MESO (+$0.25)
… Flat: AXGN, RENE.L, KITE, RGNX, AST and BCLI
Shaking the tree:
CAPR closed down -$0.16 after Tuesday’s +$0.01 after Monday’s +$0.42 post Friday’s +$0.80 – somethings up or amiss by these gyrations - CAPR can’t keep fooling investors for long with their brand of hype…I still think the HYPE is overplayed but, the numbers speak for themselves. As I had stated, “Take the upside, and then be cautious” …
VCEL was up +$0.025 after Tuesday’s +$0.05 post Monday’s -$0.15 after Friday’s +$0.40 after Thursday’s +$0.10 after last Wednesday’s +$0.60 – I wouldn’t be surprised by a financing in future and soon …
As HSGX closed up again +$0.02 after Tuesday’s +$0.05 after Monday’s flat again at $1.98 while AXGN closed flat at $18.60 after Tuesday’s -$0.50 following Monday’s -$0.25 after Friday’s +0.35 and MDXG was up +$0.72 after Tuesday’s down -$1.03 after Monday’s +$0.91 … the merry-go-round turns and burns;
AGTC was down -$0.05 after Tuesday’s +$0.05 post Monday’s +$0.15 … as I stated the upside won’t last? I haven’t seen or heard of ANY officer buys … AGTC can’t escape the downside trap …
BSTG was down again after the gain – if one can’t say ANYTHING positive about this company – why say it at all … BLAME management for their thoroughly depreciated predicament!
AST was flat at $3.45 post being down -$0.15 after Monday’s +$0.20 while mothership BTX was also down -$0.02 after Tuesday’s +$0.05 after Monday’s -$0.05 … they both NEED cash to prop their balance sheets
Cellectis S.A. (CLLS) jumped +$0.48 after falling -$0.34 post Monday’s pop of +$0.53, as I had stated … watch the merry-go-round but, don’t wait for the music to stop;
Immuno-oncologists - JUNO was down -$0.19 after yesterday’s -$0.64 after Monday’s +$0.88; KITE was flat again at $179.79 down -$0.02 while BLCM was up +$0.11 after being down -$0.52 post Monday’s +$0.26 and VSTM slipped -$0.03 post being +$0.07 after Monday’s +$0.08 after Friday’s +$0.02 … it will be ebbing;
ATHX continues down another -$0.04 post -$0.01 after Monday’s +$0.13 after Friday’s -$0.07 post Thursday’s -$0.07 following last Wednesday’s -$0.25 as many question their cash position going forward and their clinical “manufacturing” issues as trials continue …
RGNX was flat at $32.00 post being down -$1.50 but, is opting to back away from a deal to buy Dimension Therapeutics Inc. (DMTX). RGNX had announced plans to buy Dimension in an all-stock transaction. Any time one has a doubt – wait, RGNX usually rebounds … by walking they receive $2.85 M …
SGMO was up again +$0.25 post yesterday’s +$0.55 after Monday’s +$1.20 after Friday’s +$0.65 while ONCE was down -$0.66 post yesterday’s -$1.19 after Monday’s +$0.21 as BLUE jumped +$1.85 after Tuesday’s +$2.10 after Monday’s dropping of -$11.90
FATE was down -$0.05 post Tuesday’s +$0.05 after Monday’s +$0.21 as MESO jumped +$0.25 after dropping Tuesday’s -$0.03 following Monday’s +$0.32
CYTX was up again +$0.02 post being +$0.01 after Monday’s flat at $0.358 while another criminal, OSIR was up again +$0.03 after being up +$0.06 after being down -$0.06
PSTI was up +40.03 following being on the losing side of the trade -$0.06, when will it ever learn – it has to be considered trustworthy by shareholders
The advance/decline line scenario of 43 SCGT & RT covered companies:
· The first hour was negative with an A/DL of 15/23 and 5 flats;
· The mid-day was a positive with an ADL of 24/15 and 4 flats;
· The close was barely positive with an A/DL of 18/19 and 6 flats;
Daily analytics:
U.S. stocks posted modest gains Wednesday, extending their recent streak of advances that’s taken all major benchmarks to record levels.
· The S&P 500 SPX, +0.12% ended at a record, rising for a seventh consecutive session.
· The Dow closed at an all-time high, as it eked out a small gain of 19.97 points, or 0.1%, to 22,661.57.
· The NASDAQ advanced 2.91 points, or less than 0.1%, to 6,534.63.
The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market; Wednesday traded at 9.63, up +1.26% …
- Tuesday traded at 9.57, up +1.27 after Monday traded at 9.45, down -0.63% … after Friday traded at 9.51, down -0.42% after Thursday traded at 9.55, down -3.24% after last Wednesday traded at 9.87, down -2.95%
Welcome to another day of the sector’s roller coaster …
… The iShares Russell 2000 (IWM) indicated:
· Wednesday was down -0.30%
· Tuesday +0.21%
· Monday +1.23
· Friday +20%
· Thursday +0.28%
· Last Wednesday+1.96%
… The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) indicated:
· Wednesday was up +0.78%
· Tuesday -0.23%
· Monday +1.51%
· Friday +0.92%
· Thursday +$0.46%
· Last Wednesday +0.57%
The count - decliners versus gainers:
……. look at the differences in the spreads as decliners jump and %
· Wednesday’s decliners ranged from -0.42% <JUNO -$0.19> to -8.32% <KOOL -$0.40> in 16 equities;
· Tuesday’s decliners ranged from -0.45% <ONVO -$0.01> to -8.05% <MDXG -$1.03> in 23 equities;
· Monday’s decliners ranged from -0.01% <KITE -$0.02> to -8.66% <BLUE -$11.90> in 14 equities;
· Friday’s decliners ranged from -0.08% <ONCE -$0.07> to -5.15% <OSIR -$0.25> in 14 equities;
· Thursday’s decliners ranged from -0.16% <RGNX -$0.05> to -3.29% <BSTG -$0.0105> in 14 equities;
· Last Wednesday’s decliners ranged from -0.23% <QURE -$0.02> to -10.20% <ATHX -$0.25> in 13 equities;
Versus
… Look at the percentage’s (%) and spreads …
· Wednesday’s gainers ranged from +0.42% <VCEL +$0.025> to +6.38% <CYTX +$0.023> in 22 equities;
· Tuesday’s gainers ranged from +0.31% <XON +$0.06> to +33.98% <KOOL +$1.22> in 18 equities;
· Monday’s gainers ranged from +0.24% <ONCE +$0.21> to +13.86% <CAPR +$0.42> in 26 equities;
· Friday’s gainers ranged from +0.04% <KITE +$0.08> to +35.87% <CAPR +$0.30> in 23 equities;
· Thursday’s gainers ranged from +0.03% <KITE +$0.05> to +3.13% <CUR +$0.04> in 24 equities;
· Last Wednesday’s gainers ranged from +0.02% <KITE +$0.04> to +12.24% <VCEL +$0.60> in 30 equities;
Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.
Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.
Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.
