April 7, 2020 5:09pm

Infection and death rates have increased as the multitudes self-isolate; optimism is a disheartened value-based factor

Pre-open indications: 2 HITs (PSTI & RENE.L) and 1 MISS (ALNY)

What I provide is an “intelligence newspaper” to ensure that shareholders are kept apprised based on a 24-hour surveillance of “our” universe, the RegMed/cell and gene therapy sector and its surrounding markets. Check the BOTTOM LINE … <reads more>


The Dow closed DOWN -26.13 points (-0.12%), the S&P closed DOWN -4.27 points (-0.16%) while the NASDAQ closed DOWN -25.98 points (-0.33%)

 

Henry’omics:

Indexes jumped on Tuesday sparked after a decline in new coronavirus cases and building on Monday’s gains as the machines shut-down the Dow, S&P and the NASDAQ minutes from the close.

Considering, the S&P 500 is up 24.7% from its 52-week low set March 23 while the Dow has bounced 28% from its low.

 

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

  • Tuesday, the IBB closed down -1.94% and XBI also closed down -1.83%
  • Monday, the IBB closed up +5.14% and XBI also closed up +7.40%
  • Friday, the IBB closed down -1.35% and XBI also closed down -1.341%

 

Volatility in the market is usually inversely correlated in the short-term. The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

  • Tuesday was up +1.35 points or +2.98% at 46.59,
  • Monday was down -1.56 points or -3.33% at 45.24,
  • Friday volatility was down -4.11 points or -8.07% at 46.80,
  • The previous week in March, the VIX eclipsed its financial crisis high, closing at 82.69.

 

RegMed/Cell and gene therapy 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: progressions and regressions …

  • Tuesday opened positive at 28/5 and 2 flats (CLBS & AGTC), stayed positive at the mid-day at 27/8 and closed negative at 17/18 of the 35 covered companies;
  • Monday opened positive at 33/2, stayed positive at the mid-day at 31/4 and closed positive at 33/2 of the 35 covered companies;
  • Friday opened positive territory at 19/25 and 1 flat (SAGE) continuing to the mid-day positive at 13/21 and 1 flat (CRSP) and closed negative at 12/23;

 

Tuesday’s (only 10) incliners:

  • ReNeuron (RENE.L +$21.00 after Monday’s +$4.00 and Friday’s +$10.00);
  • uniQure NV (QURE +$2.67 after Monday’s +$2.11);
  • Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT +$1.34 after Monday’s +$4.74, Friday’s +$2.10, Thursday’s +$1.83 and last Wednesday’s -$2.36);
  • Pluristem (PSTI +$0.75);
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE +$0.66 after Monday’s +$2.42 and Friday’s -$0.80);
  • Biostage (BSTG +$0.45 after Monday’s -$0.15, Friday’s -$0.54, Thursday’s -$0.06 and last Wednesday’s +$0.20);
  • Voyager therapeutics (VYGR +$0.320;
  • Verastem Oncology (VSTM +$0.27);
  • Cellectis SA (CLLS +$0.24);
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS +$0.17);

Tuesday’s (bottom 10) decliners:

  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$2.62 after Monday’s +$6.32, Friday’s +$1.61, Thursday’s -$0.33 and Wednesday’s -$4.31);
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS -$1.39 after Monday’s +$1.59, Friday’s -$0.50 and Thursday’s +$2.16);
  • bluebird bio (BLUE -$1.22);
  • Homology Medicine (FIXX -$0.89);
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$0.88 after Monday’s +$2.79);
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$0.81);
  • Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE) -$0.75 after Monday’s +$2.95, Friday’s -$1.72, Thursday’s +$3.11 and Wednesday’s +$2.48);
  • Fate therapeutics (FATE -$0.62);
  • Mesoblast (MESO -$0.57 after Monday’s +$1.96);
  • Aduro Biotechnologies (ADRO -$0.38);

 

Today’s stand-outs:

  • 2-day repeat upsiders: ReNeuron (RENE.L), uniQure NV (QURE) and Sage Therapeutics (SAGE)
  • 4-day repeater - Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT);

 

Volumes versus 3-month averages:

  • Tuesday’s volume was LOW as 8 out of the 17-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume as only 7 out of the 18-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Monday’s volume was LOW as 6 out of the 33-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume as only 1 out of the 2-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume.
  • Friday’s volume was LOW as 2 out of the 12-upside had higher … with even LOWER volume as only 2 out of the 23-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume.

 

Percentage (%) movement/range statistics: thinning …

  • Tuesday’s % of the 17-upside were +0.30% (SGMO) to +19.27% (RENE.L) while the 18-downside ranged from -0.63% (STML) to -13.24% (ADRO) were a lot higher than usual. 
  • Monday’s % of the 33-upside were +2.84% (CLBS) to +46.67% (MESO) while the 2-downside ranged from -2.08% (ATHX) to -4.17% (BSTG) were a lot higher than usual. 
  • Friday’s range of the xx-upside was +0.76% (NTLA) to +10.53% (RENE.L) while the -downside ranged from -0.33% (CRSP) to -13.04% (BSTG -$0.54); 

 

Sentiment and its indicators:

Defining pandemic disruption: The number of confirmed U.S. coronavirus cases:

  • Tuesday to 383,200,
  • Monday to 347,003,
  • Friday to 258,214,
  • Thursday’s 234,400,
  • Wednesday’s 200,000,
  • Last Tuesday’s 177,452,

Tuesday’s death rate escalated to 12,021 after Monday’s 10.335, Friday’s 6,605, Thursday’s 5,607, Wednesday’s 4,400 and last Tuesday’s 3,440. <John Hopkins University>

 

Upside volume stats:  key numbers

  • Tuesday: 8 out of the 17-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Monday: 6 out of the 33-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Friday:  4 out of the 12-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;

Downside volume stats:

  • Tuesday: 7 out of the 18-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Monday: 1 out of the 2-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Friday: 2 out of the 23-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;

0 flats –

 

April

Tuesday closed negative with 18 decliners, 17 advancer and 0 flats

Monday closed positive with 2 decliners, 33 advancer and 0 flats

Friday closed negative with 23 decliners, 12 advancer and 0 flats

Thursday closed positive with 10 decliners, 23 advancer and 2 flats

Wednesday (4/1) closed negative with 31 decliners, 4 advancer and 0 flat

 

The BOTTOM LINE: as I had written, today was again a session to sell into regarding those speculative companies …

NEVER forget, volatility sketches a contradictory picture of the short-term and when you’re on a roller coaster, the only thing you can be sure of is you’ll end up back where you started

  • Risk to the downside is greater than the opportunity to the upside from where I view unchartered territory of the next weeks, month and quarters.

I hit the mark in the push/pull of a forced market in this a.m.’s post – “any huge surge is followed by a purge. I don’t trust algorithms; they see no fundamentals, feels no sentiment, experiences no symptoms nor speaks or hears no problems” as the S&P and NASDAQ dived at the close.

  • Let’s NOT forget the negatives as we “weigh” Tuesday’s failed market optimism … which hasn’t counted-in the possibility of a depression as how long can we all work from home.

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.