April 8, 2020 5:43pm

Optimism moved the sector as the market steamed and COVID-19 continued to dominate trading, there’s still a lot of share pricing damage to make up for; investors need to build-in the next level of expectancy - good and bad

Is the “curve” bending (?), economics depends on when Americans can safely return to work

What I provide is an “intelligence newspaper” to ensure that shareholders are kept apprised based on a 24-hour surveillance of “our” universe, the RegMed/cell and gene therapy sector and its surrounding markets. Check the BOTTOM LINE … <read more>

The Dow closed UP +779.71 points (+3.44%), the S&P closed UP +90.57 points (+3.41%) while the NASDAQ closed UP +203.64 points (+2.58%)

 

Henry’omics:

Indexes rose on Wednesday throughout the day, marking renewed optimism after a rally that began Monday ran out of steam on Tuesday.

Optimism about the cresting of the coronavirus wave fueled stock gains early in the week, and that upbeat feeling hadn’t dissipated completely.

Investors think they are seeing the light at the end of the tunnel but, have the tracks been tampered with?

Although, “Some of the hardest-hit places in the U.S., where a quarter of all confirmed global cases have now been reported, are starting to show welcome signs of a reduction in infections, including New York state, which has emerged as the epicenter of the viral outbreak that began in Wuhan, China in December.”

“On top of that, central banks and governments across the globe are throwing out what amounts to trillions of dollars to help stanch the economic damage resulting from efforts to mitigate infections and treat those sickened by the illness derived from the novel strain of coronavirus.” <MarketWatch>

It is still dark in the tunnel and the trestles are not totally nailed! <my opinion>

 

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

  • Wednesday, the IBB closed up +3.10% and XBI also closed up +3.93%
  • Tuesday, the IBB closed down -1.94% and XBI also closed down -1.83%
  • Monday, the IBB closed up +5.14% and XBI also closed up +7.40%
  • Friday, the IBB closed down -1.35% and XBI also closed down -1.341%

 

Volatility in the market is usually inversely correlated in the short-term. The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

  • Wednesday was down -3.35 points or -7.17% at 43.35,
  • Tuesday was up +1.35 points or +2.98% at 46.59,
  • Monday was down -1.56 points or -3.33% at 45.24,
  • Friday volatility was down -4.11 points or -8.07% at 46.80,
  • The previous week in March, the VIX eclipsed its financial crisis high, closing at 82.69.

 

RegMed/Cell and gene therapy 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: progressions and regressions …

  • Wednesday opened positive at 24/11, stayed positive at the mid-day at 31/4 and closed positive at 30/4 and 1 flat (PGEN) of the 35 covered companies;
  • Tuesday opened positive at 28/5 and 2 flats (CLBS & AGTC), stayed positive at the mid-day at 27/8 and closed negative at 17/18 of the 35 covered companies;
  • Monday opened positive at 33/2, stayed positive at the mid-day at 31/4 and closed positive at 33/2 of the 35 covered companies;
  • Friday opened positive at 19/25 and 1 flat (SAGE) continuing to the mid-day positive at 13/21 and 1 flat (CRSP) and closed negative at 12/23;

 

Wednesday’s (top 10) incliners:

  • ReNeuron (RENE.L +$16.00 after Tuesday’s +$21.00, Monday’s +$4.00 and Friday’s +$10.00);
  • Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT +$3.59 after Tuesday’s +$1.34, Monday’s +$4.74, Friday’s +$2.10, Thursday’s +$1.83 and last Wednesday’s -$2.36);
  • uniQure NV (QURE +$3.54 after Tuesday’s +$2.67 and Monday’s +$2.11);
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$3.09 after Tuesday’s -$0.88 and Monday’s +$2.79);
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS +$2.43 after Tuesday’s -$1.39, Monday’s +$1.59, Friday’s -$0.50 and last Thursday’s +$2.16);
  • Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE) +$2.31 after Tuesday’s -$0.75, Monday’s +$2.95, Friday’s -$1.72, Thursday’s +$3.11 and last Wednesday’s +$2.48);
  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$1.87 after Tuesday’s -$2.62, Monday’s +$6.32, Friday’s +$1.61, Thursday’s -$0.33 and last Wednesday’s -$4.31);
  • Regenxbio (RGNX +$1.62);
  • Fate Therapeutics (FATE +$1.45);
  • Homology Medicine (FIXX +$1.35 after Tuesday’s-$0.89);

Wednesday’s (only 4) decliners:

  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS -$0.63 after Tuesday’s +$0.17);
  • Editas Medicine (EDIT -$0.51);
  • Biostage (BSTG -$0.35 after Tuesday’s +$0.45, Monday’s -$0.15, Friday’s -$0.54, Thursday’s -$0.06 and last Wednesday’s +$0.20);
  • Bellicum Pharmaceuticals (BLCM -$0.10);

 

Today’s stand-outs:

  • 5-days of upside - Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT);
  • 4-day repeater – ReNeuron (RENE.L);
  • 3-day repeater: uniQure NV (QURE);
  • After the news of a restructuring – Sage Therapeutics (SAGE) closed up +$0.98 or +3.38% to 30.01;
  • Hop-scotching – Biostage (BSTG closed down 4 times and up 2 times in six (6) sessions;
  • Back on the upside board: CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP), Ultragenyx (RARE), Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) and Homology Medicine (FIXX) to mention a few …

 

Volumes versus 3-month averages:

  • Wednesday’s volume stayed LOW as 12 out of the 30-upside had higher than the 3-month minimal volume as only 1 out of the 4-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Tuesday’s volume was LOW as 8 out of the 17-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume as only 7 out of the 18-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Monday’s volume was LOW as 6 out of the 33-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume as only 1 out of the 2-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume.
  • Friday’s volume was LOW as 2 out of the 12-upside had higher … with even LOWER volume as only 2 out of the 23-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume.

 

Percentage (%) movement/range statistics:

  • Wednesday’s % of the 30-upside were +0.34% (VSTM) to +18% (PSTI) while the 4-downside ranged from -2.02% (BLCM) to -8.97% (BSTG) were a lot higher than usual. 
  • Tuesday’s % of the 17-upside were +0.30% (SGMO) to +19.27% (RENE.L) while the 18-downside ranged from -0.63% (STML) to -13.24% (ADRO) were a lot higher than usual. 
  • Monday’s % of the 33-upside were +2.84% (CLBS) to +46.67% (MESO) while the 2-downside ranged from -2.08% (ATHX) to -4.17% (BSTG) were a lot higher than usual. 
  • Friday’s range of the xx-upside was +0.76% (NTLA) to +10.53% (RENE.L) while the -downside ranged from -0.33% (CRSP) to -13.04% (BSTG -$0.54); 

 

Sentiment and its indicators: Steep bounces suggest that investor sentiment is still in the denial phase.

  • In the U.S., the number of daily increases in coronavirus cases has fallen since Friday, according to data from Johns Hopkins University. Daily increases in global cases have also fallen since then.
  • The Federal Open Market Committee released the meeting minutes from its March emergency meeting. The summary showed “all participants viewed the near-term U.S. economic outlook as having deteriorated sharply in recent weeks and as having become profoundly uncertain.”

Defining pandemic disruption: The number of confirmed U.S. coronavirus cases:

  • Wednesday to 402,900,
  • Tuesday’s 383,200,
  • Monday to 347,003,
  • Friday to 258,214,
  • Thursday’s 234,400,
  • Wednesday’s 200,000,
  • Last Tuesday’s 177,452,

Wednesday’s death rate escalated to 13,007 after Tuesday’s 12,021 after Monday’s 10.335, Friday’s 6,605, Thursday’s 5,607 and last Wednesday’s 4,400. <John Hopkins University>

 

Upside volume stats:  key numbers

  • Wednesday: 12 out of the 30-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Tuesday: 8 out of the 17-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Monday: 6 out of the 33-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Friday:  4 out of the 12-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;

Downside volume stats:

  • Wednesday: 1 out of the 4-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Tuesday: 7 out of the 18-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Monday: 1 out of the 2-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Friday: 2 out of the 23-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;

1 flat – PGEN

 

April

Wednesday closed positive with 4 decliners, 30 advancer and 1 flat

Tuesday closed negative with 18 decliners, 17 advancer and 0 flats

Monday closed positive with 2 decliners, 33 advancer and 0 flats

Friday closed negative with 23 decliners, 12 advancer and 0 flats

Thursday closed positive with 10 decliners, 23 advancer and 2 flats

Wednesday (4/1) closed negative with 31 decliners, 4 advancer and 0 flat

 

The BOTTOM LINE: Dr. Tony Fauci spoke of optimism, Bernie Saunders quit the presidential race and some hedge funds are nibbling “names” with runways and collaboration revenue as the sector suffers an ugly Q1.  

  • Is it time to buy-in, I’d keep my “powder dry” for the re-test of the test post the next re-test of a possible bottom?

Some investors believe equities are getting ahead of reality where coronavirus shutdowns are likely to weigh on the economy significantly beyond Q2/2020.

Pity the needy companies that need capital market access; they better have a great story and partners!

 

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.