November 18, 2020 5:20pm

Gains wane and pain strains

Pre-indication Results: 5 HITs and 2 MISS

News: Pluristem Therapeutics (PSTI +$0.18) reported clinical results for PLX-R18 in humans from its PI study evaluating PLX-R18 as a treatment for incomplete hematopoietic recovery following hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT). However, the initial results consisted of the analysis of the first 19 patients enrolled, and not all patients completed a one year follow up.

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The Dow closed DOWN -344.93 points (1.16%); the S&P closed DOWN -41.74 points (-1.16%) while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -97.74 points (-0.82%)

 

Henry’omics:

Indexes fluctuated on Wednesday crashing late afternoon as investors questioned when COVID-19 vaccine developments could get America back-to-work.

The but that is always there and not mentioned - the worsening pandemic that brought on many new restrictions.

There are roughly 157,000 new coronavirus cases per day, on average, as of Tuesday, <Johns Hopkins data>. That’s another new record and nearly 30% higher than infection levels a week ago.

A good quote, “The vaccine announcement has moved the conversation about a return to normal from ‘if’ to ‘when,’” said Bill Callahan, investment strategist at Schroders. “What is most important is that the vaccine announcement removed some of the long-term uncertainty, which had kept investors cautious.” <CNBC>

 

Pre-open indication: 5 HITs < Biostage (BSTG -$0.00), Cellectis SA (CLLS +$1.32): Sell into Strength: CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$1.82), Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS -$1.83), uniQure NV (QURE -$1.63) and 2 MISS – BUYs < Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT -$0.18), Applied Genetic Technologies (AGTC +$0.02)>

 

This morning, I stated in this a.m.’s newsletter – RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: watch the patterns, Advance/Decline (A/D) lines are slipping. Even though, sector equities are having a strong month on the back of earnings’ releases” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/11640

 

RegMed/Cell and Gene therapy 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: progressions and regressions …

  • Wednesday opened positive at 18/14 and 3 flats, flipped positive at the mid-day at 17/15 and 3 flats, closing negative at 7/25 and 3 flats;
  • Tuesday opened negative at 6/27 and 2 flats, flipped positive at the mid-day at 18/15 and 2 flats, closing positive at 18/15 and 2 flats;
  • Monday opened positive at 19/16 and 2 flats, stayed positive at the mid-day at 22/12 and 1 flat, closing positive at 19/15 and 1 flat;

 

Key metrics:

  • Sector volume was the usual LOW with 1 of the 7-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with the increased volume of 5 of 25-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Wednesday’s percentage (%) of the 7-upside were +0.34% (MESO) to +6.70% (CLLS) while the 25-downside ranges from -0.25% (RGNX) to -7.42% (SGMO);

 

Hammered in today’s market:

  • Ultragenyx (RARE), Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Fate Therapeutics (FATE) CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP), bluebird bio (BLUE) to name 5 of the 25 declining of the 35 covered

Jumping with share pricing momentum:  

  • Cellectis SA (CLLS), BioLife Solutions (BLFS), Pluristem (PSTI), Regenxbio (RGNX), Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM), Mesoblast (MESO) and Bellicum Pharmaceuticals (BLCM) to name 7 of the 7 inclining of the 35 covered

 

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

  • Wednesday, the IBB closed down -2.02% and XBI closed down -1.89%
  • Tuesday, the IBB closed down -0.23% and XBI closed up +0.88%
  • Monday, the IBB closed up +0.01% and XBI closed up +0.48%

 

Wednesday’s (6 of 6) incliners:

  • Cellectis SA (CLLS +$1.32 after Tuesday’s -$0.36 and Monday’s +$0.94);
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS +$0.73 after Tuesday’s +$1.09 and Monday’s -$1.02);
  • Pluristem (PSTI +$0.18 after Tuesday’s +$0.38 and Monday’s -$0.16);
  • Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM +$0.09);
  • Mesoblast (MESO +$0.04 after Tuesday’s -$0.23);
  • Bellicum Pharmaceuticals (BLCM +$0.01);

Wednesday’s (10 of 25) decliner:

  • Ultragenyx (RARE -$5.32 after Tuesday’s +$0.70 and Monday’s +$1.45);
  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$3.85 after Tuesday’s -$1.75 and Monday’s -$4.46);
  • Fate Therapeutics (FATE -$2.70 after Tuesday’s -$0.38 and Monday’s +$2.29);
  • bluebird bio (-$1.93);
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS -$1.83 after Tuesday’s +$0.36 and Monday’s +$0.58);
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$1.82 after Tuesday’s +$1.81 and Monday’s +$2.80);
  • uniQure NV (QURE -$1.63 after Tuesday’s +$0.40 and Monday’s +$0.74);
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE -$1.35 after Tuesday’s +$0.78 and Monday’s -$6.05);
  • Vericel (-$1.26);
  • Editas Medicine (EDIT -$1.06 after Tuesday’s -$0.31 and Monday’s -$0.17);

Closing 2 Biostage (BSTG), ReNeuron (RENE.L) and 1 Stemline Therapeutics (STML – acquired)

 

Percentage (%) movement/range statistics: a 360 degrees comparison of % and pricing

  • Wednesday’s percentage (%) of the 7-upside were +0.34% (MESO) to +6.70% (CLLS) while the 25-downside ranges from -0.25% (RGNX) to -7.42% (SGMO);
  • Tuesday’s percentage (%) of the 18-upside were +0.45% (GBT) to +4.22% (PSTI) while the 15-downside ranges from -0.09% (BLUE) to -66.33% (BCLI);
  • Monday’s percentage (%) of the 19-upside were +0.60% (FIXX) to +8.38% (PGEN) while the 15- downside of -0.35% (KDNY) to -8.16% (BSTG);

 

Sentiment and a few daily indicators:

Infection cases <Million>:

  • Wednesday 11.36 M cases
  • Tuesday 11.2 M cases
  • Monday 11.03 M cases

Wednesday’s death rate totaled 284.824 after Tuesday’s 247,437, Monday’s 246,224, Friday’s 242,536, Thursday’s 241,907 and last Wednesday’s 239,732 <Johns Hopkins University>

 

Stats:

Upside volume:  

  • Wednesday: 1 out of the 7-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Tuesday: 4 out of the 18-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Monday: 8 out of the 19-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

  • Wednesday was up +1.13 points or +4.98% at 23.84
  • Tuesday was up +0.26 points or +1.16% at 22.71
  • Monday was down -0.65 points or -2.81% at 22.45

Downside volume:

  • Wednesday: 5 out of the 25-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Tuesday: 7 out of the 15-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Monday: 5 out of the 15-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;

 

November, the 2nd month of Q4 …

Wednesday closed negative with 7 advancers, 25 decliners and 3 flats 

Tuesday closed positive with 18 advancers, 15 decliners and 2 flats 

Monday (11/16) closed positive with 19 advancers, 15 decliners and 1 flat   

Friday closed positive with 22 advancers, 11 decliners and 1 flat 

Thursday closed negative with 15 advancers, 19 decliners and 1 flat 

Wednesday closed positive with 17 advancers, 15 decliners and 3 flats 

Tuesday closed positive with 22 advancers, 11 decliners and 2 flats 

Monday (11/9) closed positive with 21 advancers, 12 decliners and 2 flats 

Friday closed negative with 6 advancers, 28 decliners and 1 flat 

Thursday closed positive with 20 advancers, 11 decliners and 4 flats 

Wednesday closed positive with 28 advancers, 4 decliners and 3 flats 

Tuesday closed positive with 30 advancers, 4 decliners and 1 flat 

Monday (11/2) closed positive with 17 advancers, 15 decliners and 3 flats 

 

The Bottom Line: new highs continue, so I naturally get nervous and call for SELLs into Strength. What sealed my contrarian position was the disappointing retail sales “numbers”.  There’s still more than doubt and uncertainty in the short term.

The BIGGEST issue is the number of coronavirus cases continues to increase, diminishing the country’s near-term economic outlook and a hint of returning to individual normalcy.

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.