December 29, 2023 4:57pm

Looking toward 2024 with one word – recalibration i.e., a change in the way you do or think about something – markets and the cell and gene therapy sector

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With no sigh of relief after 2023, I try to answer or qualify one question, in which company should investors put, keep and commit "their" money

Ask yourself, do you know why you own certain equities?

 

Friday: The Dow closed DOWN -20.56 points or -0.05%, the S&P closed DOWN -13.52 points or -0.28% while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -83.78 points or -0.56%

Thursday: The Dow closed UP +53.58 points or +0.14%, the S&P closed UP +1.77 points or +0.04% while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -4.04 points or +0.03%

Wednesday: The Dow closed UP +111.19 points or +0.30%, the S&P closed UP +6.83 points or +0.14% while the Nasdaq closed UP +24.60 points or +0.16%

Tuesday: The Dow closed UP +159.36 points or +0.43%, the S&P closed UP +20.12 points or +0.42% while the Nasdaq closed UP +81.60 points or +0.54%

 

Henry’omics:

We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …

Last sessioon of 2023, indexes closed down … edging closer to wrapping a winning year for all the major averages.

 

RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene Therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: what happened – differences …

  • Friday’s advance/decline line was negative at the open with 5 incliners, 29 decliners and 1 flat, ending with a negative close of 7 incliners, 28 decliners and 0 flat
  • Thursday’s advance/decline line was positive at the open with 21 incliners, 14 decliners and 0 flat, ending with a negative close of 17 incliners, 18 decliners and 0 flat
  • Wednesday’s advance/decline line was negative at the open with 13 incliners, 21 decliners and 1 flat, ending with a negative close of 16 incliners, 19 decliners and 0 flat
  • Tuesday’s advance/decline line was positive at the open with 21 incliners, 11 decliners and 3 flats, ending with a positive close of 25 incliners, 8 decliners and 2 flats
  • Monday was a holiday

 

Ebb and flow of MY covered sector cell and gene therapy session daily “endings”:

Q4:  December – 1 holiday, 10 negative and 10 positive closes

  • November – 11 positives, 1 holiday and 10 negative closes
  • October – 12 negative and 10 positive closes

 

Key Metrics:

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

  • Friday, the IBB was down -0.86% and the XBI was down -1.75%
  • Thursday, the IBB was up +0.12% and the XBI was down -0.04%
  • Wednesday, the IBB was up +1.36% and the XBI was up +1.54%
  • Tuesday, the IBB was up +0.94% and the XBI was up +2.08%
  • Monday was holiday

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

  • Friday was up +0.05 point or +0.40% at 12.52
  • Thursday was up +0.03 point or +0.24% at 12.46
  • Wednesday was down -0.56 point or -4.31% at 12.43
  • Tuesday was down -0.05 point or -0.38% at 12.98
  • Monday was Christmas

 

Friday’s Closing Down (10 of 28):

  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$4.30 after Thursday’s -$0.86 and Wednesday’s +$5.37),
  • Beam Therapeutics (BEAM -$2.21 after Thursday’s +$0.35 Wednesday’s -$0.74 and Tuesday’s +$0.34),
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$1.70 after Thursday’s -$0.66, Wednesday’s -$0.37 and Tuesday’s +$1.66),
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$1.28),
  • Verve Therapeutics (VERV -$1.01 after Thursday’s +$0.28, Wednesday’s -$0.14 and Tuesday’s +$0.542),
  • Prime Medine (PRME -$0.69 after Thursday’s +$0.14, Wednesday’s +$0.21 and Tuesday’s -$0.02)
  • Regenxbio (RGNX -$0.59 after Thursday’s -$0.33 and Wednesday’s +$0.12),
  • Solid Biosciences (SLDB -$0.59 after Thursday’s +$0.21, Wednesday’s +$0.34 and Tuesday’s +$0.80),
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS -$0.47 after Thursday’s -$0.14, Wednesday’s +$0.20 and Tuesday’s +$0.63),
  • Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE -$0.45 after Thursday’s -$0.92 and Wednesday’s +$1.57),

Friday’s Closing Up (7 of 7):

  • Blueprint Medicine (BPMC +$0.89 after Thursday’s -$1.49, Wednesday’s +$2.03 and Tuesday’s +$1.98),
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS +$0.09 after Thursday’s +$0.34, Wednesday’s -$1.14 and Tuesday’s +$0.11),
  • Compass Therapeutics (CMPX +$0.07),
  • Homology Medicine (FIXX +$0.0326),
  • Mesoblast (MESO +$0.02),
  • Agenus (AGEN +$0.0179),
  • Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI +$0.0088),

 

Q4/23 – December

  • Friday closed negative with 7 incliners, 28 decliners and 0 flat
  • Thursday closed negative with 17 incliners, 18 decliners and 0 flat
  • Wednesday closed negative with 16 incliners, 19 decliners and 0 flat
  • Tuesday closed positive with 25 incliners, 8 decliners and 2 flats
  • Monday (12/25) was Christmas
  • Friday closed positive with 28 incliners, 5 decliners and 2 flats
  • Thursday closed positive with 26 incliners, 6 decliners and 1 flat
  • Wednesday closed negative with 2 incliners, 31 decliners and 2 flats
  • Tuesday closed positive with 26 incliners, 8 decliners and 1 flat
  • Monday (12/18) closed negative with 11 incliners, 24 decliners and 0 flat
  • Friday closed negative with 17 incliners, 18 decliners and 0 flat
  • Thursday closed positive with 24 incliners, 10 decliners and 1 flat
  • Wednesday closed positive with 32 incliners, 2 decliners and 1 flat
  • Tuesday closed negative with 10 incliners, 25 decliners and 0 flat
  • Monday (12/11) closed negative with 13 incliners, 21 decliners and 1 flat
  • Friday closed negative with 10 incliners, 25 decliners and 0 flat
  • Thursday closed positive with 23 incliners, 12 decliners and 0 flat
  • Wednesday closed positive with 21 incliners, 14 decliners and 0 flat
  • Tuesday closed negative with 5 incliners, 29 decliners and 1 flat
  • Monday (12/4) closed positive with 26 incliners, 8 decliners and 2 flats
  • Friday (12/1) closed positive with 30 incliners, 3 decliners and 2 flats

 

The BOTTOM LINE: the Santa Claus rally ran out of reindeer; 2023, it’s over! Hopefully also, the “vid” – covid – I got pre the holiday week – having tested positive again this afternoon, there goes New Years with friends (already called)!

  • The last trading day of the year comes to an end; having annually risen the biggest annual uptick since 2019, while U.S. Treasuries finished the year where they started after some wild moves for the benchmark in 2023.
  • "While extremely overbought conditions raise the odds of a temporary pause or pullback, longer-term returns have been positive and above average based on comparable periods."
  • The S&P 500 is up about 24% this year, thanks to a massive rally in mega cap tech stocks. European shares ended 2023 with an annual gain of almost 13% on hopes of softer monetary policy from major central banks next year. <Reuters>

 

Stock market is ‘arguably’ overbought, Ed Yardeni of Yardeni Research: Stocks have been on a tear recently, but they may be due for a pullback in the near future, according to. Arguably, the bull market is overbought, and there are too many bulls. However, melt-ups can go on for a while until, like Icarus, they get too close to the sun. In other words, they can lead to meltdowns if they rise too far too fast.” <Fred Imbert, CNBC>

 

Friday’s backdrop: 2023 - it’s done, let it simmer

  • The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield was at 3.881%, up 3.1 basis points on the day and right around its level at the start of the year.

It's time to think beyond December’s end and 2024’s Q1.

  • Don’t FORGET portfolio December tax selling and a bit of rebalancing … “Investors NEED to start formulating their portfolio outlook into next year.”
  • We’ve got three days left of tax harvesting, three days of portfolio window dressing ...
  • It might be prudent to harvest and cash but, it’s too late … wait for 2nd or 3rd of January for tax purposes following the past month’s dramatic rally.
  • And then comes January and with worries that the U.S. economy will be slowing down, the potential for continued Middle East violence and, of course, the real prospect of bitterly contested elections across all of the United States. <The Street>

The top three (3) performing in the session:

  • Friday: Blueprint Medicine (BPMC), Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS) and Compass Therapeutics (CMPX),
  • Thursday: Vericel (VCEL), Beam Therapeutics (BEAM) and Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS)
  • Wednesday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Blueprint Medicine (BPMC) and Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE)
  • Tuesday: Blueprint Medicine (BPMC), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) and Vericel (VCEL)
  • Monday: holiday

The worst three (3) in the session:

  • Friday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Beam Therapeutics (BEAM) and CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP)
  • Thursday: Blueprint Medicine (BPMC), Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE) and Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY)
  • Wednesday: Vericel (VCEL), Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS) and Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA)
  • Tuesday: Harvard Apparatus GN (HRGN), Editas Medicine (EDIT) and Generation Bio (GBIO)
  • Monday: holiday

Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!

  • Right up front, “I also hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and facts are its product; I can always be WRONG but … I am mostly EARLY!”

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. Whether information or intelligence is good, bad, or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor, and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication. Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities.

I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.