Indication intelligence, analysis and sector perception

RegMed Investors’ (RMi) closing bell: it’s about time to be picking ripe fruit off drooping sector vines!

December 20, 2018 6:37pm

Don’t ignore the headlines – it’s still a tug-of-war between sentiment united with fundamentals versus panic selling partnered with downside momentum

On my horizon, advancing trials, strong cash position and runways and never forget – managements that have a history of success and past pricing movement – definitely NO pre-INDs

Volatility is here to stay, so re-enter slowly – a bounce is due after the catastrophe of six (6) negative closes!

Pre-open indications: 4 HITs and 3 MISS

Investors should be reading about today’s final “figures” – be a subscriber and be ready for tomorrow’s session! I still believe today’s tin could be next month’s gold!

The last six (6) session’s trend is an admission that the sector is without any pricing sustainability which suppresses any value directional …

Daily analytics and metrics:

The Dow closed down -464.05 points or -1.99% to 22,859.60
The S&P closed down -39.54 points or -1.58% to 2,467.42
The NASDAQ was down -108.42 points or -1.63 % to 6,528.41

Henry’omics:

Sector equities collapsed for a sixth (6^th) day Thursday after the Fed raised benchmark interest rates and said that it would continue to let its massive balance sheet shrink at the current pace.

Weakness abounds yet, some serious oversold equities are ripe for entry (yes, I tend to be EARLY on prognosis).

Tonight’s fear of a government shutdown also sent stocks tumbling to new lows.

When the sector’s “pricing” have fallen (down) precipitously – it’s time to REBUILD portfolios … may be with a waiting period but, I’d be prepared … IF you have followed our profit-taking advice when given!!

The Dow fell bringing its two-day declines to more than 800 points and its 5-day losses to more than 1,700 points. The NASDAQ is 19.7% below its recent high. Companies in the S&P 500 have lost a total of $2.39 trillion in market cap this month. The Cboe Volatility Index — one of the market's best gauges of marketplace fear — rose above 30.

The NASDAQ posted its lowest close since October 2017, while the S&P 500 finished at its lowest level since September 2017.

Last year, the NASDAQ led its peers, returning 28% for the full year, compared with a gain of 25% for the Dow and 19.4% for the S&P 500. Thus far in 2018, the S&P 500 is on track to shed 6.2% in value, the Dow is set for a 5.7% drop, while the NASDAQ is looking at a drop 3.9%.

From the pre-open newsletter: “expectation – none; Causation – fear; Creation – grossly oversold conditions; Fixation – share pricing risk and Speculation – all consuming

The advance/decline line scenario of 45 covered companies:

The open was negative with an A/DL of 20/24 and 1 flat;
The mid-day was negative with an A/DL of 7/38 and 0 flat;
The close was negative with an A/DL of 8/36 and 1 flat;

Pre-open indications: 4 HIT and 3 MISS

Aduro Biotechnologies (ADRO) closed down -$0.13 – miss;

Global Blood therapeutics (GBT) closed down -$0.96 – hit;

Applied Genetic Technologies Corporation (AGTC) closed down again -$0.12 – miss;

AGTC still has $105 M in cash and there is $6.81 in total cash per share. BIIB has already paid out around $146 million during the collaboration and will contribute funding through to March 8 of next year, when the contract comes to an end

CRISPER Therapeutics (CRSP) closed down again -$1.44 – hit, I’d said trade it;

Editas medicine (EDIT) closed down again -$1.99 – hit, I’d said trade it;

Intellia (NTLA) closed up +0.27 – hit, I’d said trade it;

Regenxbio (RGNX) closed down -$4.83 – miss;

Daily sector metrics: weakness

… Greatest volume to the downside: HSGX, VSTM, ADRO, MDXG and XON

… Upside volume was weighted to: BTX, ATHX, NTLA, ONCE and SLDB

… Weakness ($) to the downside: SAGE (-$8.23), BLUE (-$5.92), RGNX (-$4.83), RENE.L (-$4.00) and ALNY (-$2.57)

… Best moves ($) to the upside: SLDB (+$0.66), NTLA (+$0.27), BSTG (+$0.25), ONCE (+$0.22) and AST (+$0.1187)

… The week’s history lesson, the iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) closed:

Thursday was down -1.71% after indicating a POSITIVE +0.28% in the pre-market;
Wednesday was down -2.14% after indicating a NEGATIVE -0.1% in the pre-market;
Tuesday was down –1.94% after indicating a POSITIVE +0.7% in the pre-market;
Monday was down –1.65% after indicating a POSITIVE +0.12% in the pre-market;
Friday was down -1.89% after indicating a NEGATIVE -1.05% in the pre-market;
Last Thursday was down -1.51% after NOT indicating in the pre-market;

Tonight’s percentage (%) indicators: weakness …

Review the range of the x upside from +0.24% (CLBS) to +19.11% (AST +$0.118) while the 36 downside ranged from -0.06% (BMRN) to -11.52% (STML) with 1 flat close (ONVO).

Volume stat: Increasing …

8 out of the 8 upside had higher (than the 3 month average) volume
23 out of the 36 downside experienced greater volume (than the 3 month average).

December sessions:

Thursday closed NEGATIVE with 36 decliners, 8 advancers and 1 flat;

Wednesday closed NEGATIVE with 34 decliners, 9 advancers and 2 flat;

Tuesday closed NEGATIVE with 36 decliners, 8 advancers and 1 flat;

Monday closed NEGATIVE with 34 decliners, 9 advancers and 2 flats;

Friday closed NEGATIVE with 30 decliners, 13 advancers and 2 flats;

Thursday closed NEGATIVE with 36 decliners, 8 advancers and 1 flat;

Wednesday closed POSITIVE with 8 decliners, 35 advancers and 2 flat;

Tuesday closed NEUTRAL with 21 decliners, 21 advancers and 3 flat;

Monday closed POSITIVE with 18 decliners, 25 advancers and 1 flat;

Friday closed NEGATIVE with 33 decliners, 11 advancers and 1 flat;

Thursday closed POSITIVE with 20 decliners, 22 advancers and 3 flats;

Wednesday markets were closed;

Tuesday closed NEGATIVE with 36 decliners, 7 advancers and 2 flats;

Monday (12/3) closed POSITIVE with 10 decliners, 32 advancers and 3 flats;

In 22 sessions in November – there were 1 holiday, 10 positive closes, 1 neutral and 10 negative closes;
In 23 sessions in October – there were 17 negative closes and 6 positive closes

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.

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Insight, foresight and recommendation

My motto … never leave an investor uninformed! I say today what others won’t, so you can do what others can’t.

My name is Henry McCusker; I endorse these opinions under my own name and with a subscription based membership.

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Editor and Publisher ... Henry McCusker enters his tenth (10th) year at RegMed Investors with past experience in sell-side analysis, buy-side management, corporate management and due diligence.

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Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.