Indication intelligence, analysis and sector perception

RegMed Investors’ (RMi) closing bell: headlines drive volatile momentum

May 8, 2019 5:57pm

With Q1/19 earnings in the second seat yet, my coverage (45) list’s Advance/Decline (A/D) line closed positive 24/18, 1 flat and 2 acquired; as I had stated, “Post reporting Q1/19, many companies lost blood yet, the oversold band aid will soon stem the pricing decline flow.”

Q1/19 results: Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM) -$0.37) – exceeded expectation while, AxoGen (AXGN -$1.42) – missed on per share but beat on revenue expectation, Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT +$2.46) an even split of surpassing expectation; while Athersys (ATHX -$0.03) and Sangamo Therapeutics (SGMO -$0.01) missed expectation

Pre-open indications: 3 HITs (AGTC, VCEL and RGNX) 1 MISS (BLUE)

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Markets and indexes:

The Dow closed up +28.92 points or +0.11% to 25,994.01
The S&P closed down -4.63 points or -0.16% at 2,879.42
The NASDAQ was down -20.44 points or -0.26% to 7,943.32

Henry’omics:

Sector equities fell again sharply on Wednesday!

Pre-open post, “declining markets mired earnings expectations, should we preparing for a rebound? Post reporting Q1/19, many companies lost blood yet, the oversold band aid will soon stem the pricing decline flow.”

The deepening downside RENE.L was down again (-$14.50 after Tuesday’s -$7.50) along with BLUE being down again (-$4.78 after Tuesday’s-$10.29), while GBT rebounded (+$3.00) and SAGE (+$2.52) were just 2 of the 24 highs!

Wednesday’s advance/decline line scenario of 45 covered companies:

The open was negative with the A/DL at 11/30, 2 flats and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR);
The mid-day was negative with an A/DL of 14/28 and 1 flat and 2 acquired;
The close was positive with an A/DL of 24/18 and 1 flat and 2 acquired;

Sector equities strayed to the upside after …

Tuesday closed NEGATIVE with 36 decliners, 6 advancers, 1 flat and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR);
Monday closed POSITIVE with 8 decliners, 32 advancers, 3 flat and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR);

Sector equities rebounded from a deep sell-off this week although the DOW did advance as investors remain on edge that the U.S and China would be unable to reach a trade agreement this week.

Investors are still worried that U.S. and China would be unable to resolve a dispute over a proposed trade agreement before new tariffs threatened by Trump are implemented Friday <CNBC>.

Investors are still worried that there are five (5) more quarterly releases tomorrow!

Wednesday’s advance/decline line scenario of 45 covered companies:

The open was negative with the A/DL at 11/30, 2 flats and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR);
The mid-day was negative with an A/DL of 14/28 and 1 flat and 2 acquired;
The close was positive with an A/DL of 24/18 and 1 flat and 2 acquired;

Pre-open indications: 3 HITs and 1 MISS

Applied Genetic Technologies (AGTC) closed flat at 4.23 with 13.3 K share traded <3 month = 87.3 K shares> – hit;
bluebird bio (BLUE) closed down -$4.64 - miss;
Regenxbio (RGNX) closed down -$3.28 – hit;
Vericel (VCEL) closed up +$0.72 – hit;

Cell and gene therapy company’s worst-performers were:

Wednesday: RENE.L (-$14.50), BLUE (-$4.53), RGNX (-$4.25), AXGN (-$1.42) and ADRO (-$0.93);
Tuesday: BLUE (-$10.29), RENE.L (-$7.50), IONS (-$5.12), RARE (-$4.68) and SAGE (-$3.53);
Monday: ALNY (-$3.21), RARE (-$0.74), IONS (-$0.72), BMRN (-$0.63) and AXGN (-$0.50);

Sector equities posting gains were:

Wednesday: SAGE (+$2.86), $%GBT (+$2.46), IONS (+$1.03), VYGR (+$0.97) and RARE (+$0.89);
Tuesday: ADRO (+$0.15), ADVM (+$0.08), BCLI (+$0.05), ONCE (+$0.05) and KOOL (+$0.013);
Monday: RENE.L (+$20.00), BLUE (+$3.99), SAGE (+$3.69), NTLA (+$1.66) and VYGR (+$1.53);

Tonight’s percentage (%) indicators:

Wednesday’s range of the 24 upside was +0.12% (ONCE) to +4.74% (XON) while the 18 downside ranged from -0.09% (SGMO) to -21.09% (ADRO);
Tuesday’s range of the 6 upside was +0.05% (ONCE) to +4.92% (KOOL) while the 36 downside ranged from -0.61% (SLDB) to -8.65% (XON);
Monday’s range of the 32 upside was +0.47% (AGTC) to +17.65% (MDXG) while the 8 downside ranged from -0.75% (BMRN) to -4.15% (ALNY)

Upside volume stats: review the numbers, there is a message …

Wednesday: 4 out of the 24 upside had higher than the 3 month average volume;
Tuesday: 2 out of the 6 upside had higher than the 3 month average volume;
Monday: 7 out of the 32 upside had higher than the 3 month average volume;

Downside volume stats: here is where the session landing is expressed …

Wednesday: 8 out of the 18 downside had higher than the 3 month average volume;
Tuesday: 10 out of the 36 downside had higher than the 3 month average volume;
Monday: 2 out of the 8 downside had higher than the 3 month average volume;

1 flat – AGTC- with 2 acquired (AST & OSIR)

Q1/19 results:

Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM) reported a Q1/19 loss of $14.5 M or -$0.23 per share. The results exceeded “street “expectations of $0.28 per share.

ADVM shares have more than doubled since the beginning of the year. In the final minutes of trading on Wednesday, shares hit $6.41, an increase of 15% in the last 12 months.

AxoGen (AXGN),

AxoGen Inc. (AXGN) on Wednesday reported a loss of $9.5 M or a loss of -$024 per share. Losses, adjusted for stock option expense and non-recurring costs, were $0.15 per share.

The results did not meet “street” expectations of -$0.14 per share. AXGN posted revenue of $23.3 M, beating “street” forecasts of $22.2 M.

AxoGen shares have risen 13% since the beginning of the year. In the final minutes of trading on Wednesday, shares hit $23.08, a decline of 47% in the last 12 months.

Athersys (ATHX)

Q1/19 net loss was $13 M or -$0.09 per share in 2019 compared to a net loss of $10.2M or -$0.08 per share in 2018. The difference of $2.8 M reflects the above variances, as well as a decrease of $200 K in other income.

Cash position was $51 M compared to $51.1M at December 31, 2018. Runway: early 2021

Q1 GAAP EPS of -$0.09 misses by $0.01 while revenue of $1.5M (+36.4% Y/Y) misses by $0.32M.

Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT)

Q1/19 net loss was $48.9 M or -$0.87 per share compared with $41.6 M or -$0.87 per share for Q1/18.

Cash position of $575.1 M

Runway: early 2021

Sangamo Therapeutics (SGMO)

SGMO reported a Q1/19 loss of $42.2 M or -$0 41 cents per share. The results did not meet “street” expectations of $0.27 per share.

The drug developer posted revenue of $8.1 M.

Sangamo shares have declined slightly more than 1% since the beginning of the year. In the final minutes of trading on Wednesday, shares hit $11.33, a decline of 23% in the last 12 months.

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) indicator:

Wednesday closed down -0.04%
Tuesday closed down -2.94%
Monday closed up +0.85%
Friday closed up +1.82%
Thursday closed up +0.40 %
Last Wednesday closed down -0.81%

May’s sessions:

Wednesday closed POSITIVE with 18 decliners, 24 advancers, 1 flat and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR);

Tuesday closed NEGATIVE with 36 decliners, 6 advancers, 1 flat and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR);

Monday closed POSITIVE with 8 decliners, 32 advancers, 3 flat and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR);

Friday closed POSITIVE with 4 decliners, 37 advancers, 2 flat and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR);

Thursday closed NEGATIVE with 23 decliners, 17 advancers, 3 flat and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR);

Wednesday (5/1) closed NEGATIVE with 30 decliners, 12 advancers, 1 flat and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR);

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.

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Editor and Publisher ... Henry McCusker enters his tenth (10th) year at RegMed Investors with past experience in sell-side analysis, buy-side management, corporate management and due diligence.

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Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.