August 5, 2022 6:21pm

News: Pfizer (PFE) in advanced “talks” to buy Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT +$20.29 or +42.28%) for about $5 Billion. The stock was halted for trading due to the surge.

Cell and gene therapy sector closes the week with a positive upswing

Pre-open indications: 6 HITs and 2 MISS

The Biostage (BSTG) Chronicles: How will stock reverse affect its share pricing and offering proposal?  BOD approved on 7/28 amending and restating their Certificate of Incorporation to affect a reverse split of the issued and outstanding common stock at a ratio of not less than 1-for-1.25 and not greater than 1-for-5. What about all those PPM (private placements) as an offering follows?

WHY and HOW is this market affecting the cell and gene therapy sector … “The Bottom Line” underlines the framework of share pricing actions.  Who else is tracking a broad grouping of cell and gene therapy equities – can you afford to not read facts supported by real numbers?

No tunnel vision here, I get into the weeds of daily share pricing and causes

TGIF

If I have learned one thing as a former research analyst, venture and public fund investor now a journalist; it is that your life and your bank account are largely tied to your knowledge of price movements and questioning pricing targets.

 

The Dow closed UP +76.65 points (+0.23%); the S&P closed DOWN -6.75 points (-0.16%) while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -63.02 points (-0.50%)

 

Henry’omics:

Indexes wavered Friday in a volatile trading session after the July jobs report was much better than expected, as investors assessed what a strong labor market would mean for the Fed’s rate tightening campaign.

Economic Data Docket: July jobs report crushed expectations. The U.S. economy added many more jobs than was expected last month; 528,000 jobs were added in July, easily beating an estimate of 258,000.

 

RegMed Investor’s (RMi) Pre-Open: “sustainability, will share pricing keep-up with LPS (loss-per-share) quarterlies and slowing clinical data? As appreciation jumps up, the path forward gets steeper; careful not to slip.” …  https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12550

 

RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene Therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: what happened …

  • Friday’s advance/decline line opened negative at 7 up/ 26 down and 2 flats, stayed positive with 23 up/10 down and 2 flats at the mid-day, ending with a positive close of 25/8 and 2 flats.
  • Thursday’s advance/decline line opened positive at 19 up/ 14 down and 2 flats, stayed positive with 23 up/11 down and 1 flat at the mid-day, ending with a positive close of 23/9 and 2 flats.
  • Wednesday’s advance/decline line opened positive at 33 up/ 1 down and 1 flat, stayed positive with 33 up/0 down and 1 flat at the mid-day, ending with a positive close of 31/3 and 1 flat.
  • Tuesday’s advance/decline line opened positive at 28 up/ 5 down and 2 flats, stayed positive with 29 up/5 down and 1 flat at the mid-day, ending with a positive close of 29/4 and 2 flats.
  • Monday’s advance/decline line opened positive at 19 up/ 15 down and 1 flat, flipped negative with 10 up/23 and 1 flat at the mid-day, ending with a negative close of 8/26 and 1 flat.

 

Pre-open Indications: 6 HITs <Biostage (OTCQB: BSTG $0.00 with 0 shares traded); Sell into Strength: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$5.47), Chinook Therapeutics (KDNY +$0.07); Positive indication:  AxoGen (AXGN +$0.07), Fate Therapeutics (FATE +$0.87), Cellectis SA (CLLS +$0.34)> 2 MISS < Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS +$2.41), MiMedx (MDXG +$0.15)   

 

Key Metrics:

  • Friday - Sector volume was LOW with 9 of the 25-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with LOW volume of 4 of 8-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Thursday - Sector volume was LOW with 8 of the 23-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with LOW volume of 5 of 9-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Wednesday - Sector volume was LOW with 14 of the 31-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with LOW volume of 1 of 3-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Tuesday - Sector volume was LOW with 2 of the 29-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with LOW volume of 0 of 4-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Monday - Sector volume was LOW with 1 of the 8-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with LOW volume of 4 of 26-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

  • Friday, the IBB was up +0.97% and the XBI was up +4.05%
  • Thursday, the IBB was up +2.07% and the XBI was up +5.11%
  • Wednesday, the IBB was up +3.83% and the XBI was up +3.82%
  • Tuesday, the IBB was up +0.29% and the XBI was up +0.90%
  • Monday, the IBB was down -1.46% and the XBI was down -2.05%

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

  • Friday was down -0.29 points or -1.35% at 21.15
  • Thursday was down -0.38 points or -1.73% at 21.57
  • Wednesday was down -1.99 points or -8.32% at 21.94
  • Tuesday was up +0.99 points or +4.33% at 23.83
  • Monday was up +1.51 points or +7.08% at 22.84

 

Jumping with share pricing momentum (10 of 25):

  • Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT +$15.85 after Thursday’s +$14.06),
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE +$3.61 after Thursday’s +$2.32),
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$2.49),
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS +$2.41 after Thursday’s +$2.45, Wednesday’s +$3.84 and Tuesday’s -$0.31),
  •  bluebird bio (BLUE +$1.01),
  • Fate Therapeutics (FATE +$0.87 after Thursday’s -$0.26, Wednesday’s +$2.18, Tuesday’s +$0.59 and Monday’s -$0.49),
  • Verve Therapeutics (VERV +$0.57 after Thursday’s -$0.37, Wednesday’s +$2.83, Tuesday’s +$1.04 and Monday’s -$2.02),
  • Beam Therapeutics (BEAM +$0.55 after Thursday’s -$0.13 and Wednesday’s +$3.87),
  • uniQure NV (QURE +$054 after Thursday’s +$0.41),
  • Sangamo Therapeutics (SGMO +$0.43 after Thursday’s -$0.03),

Flat:

  • Mesoblast (MESO) and Biostage (BSTG)

Closing down (8 of 8):

  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$5.47 after Thursday’s +$12.04, Wednesday’s +$70.04, Tuesday’s +$2.02 and Monday’s -$2.09),
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$2.11 after Thursday’s -$6.27, Wednesday’s +$7.64, Tuesday’s +$1.32 and Monday’s -$2.02),
  • Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR -$0.54),
  • Ultragenyx (RARE -$0.17 after Thursday’s +$2.17, Wednesday’s +$2.32, Tuesday’s +$0.65 and Monday’s -$2.65),
  • Bellicum Pharmaceuticals (BLCM -$0.09),
  • Precigen (PGEN-$0.05),
  • Caribou Biosciences (CRBU -$0.01),
  • Applied Genetic Technologies (AGTC -$0.0074),

 

August, Q3/2022:

  • Friday closed positive with 25 incliner, 8 decliners and 2 flats
  • Thursday closed positive with 23 incliner, 9 decliners and 2 flats
  • Wednesday closed positive with 31 incliner, 3 decliners and 1 flat
  • Tuesday closed positive with 29 incliner, 4 decliners and 2 flats
  • Monday closed negative with 8 incliner, 26 decliners and 1 flat

 

The BOTTOM LINE: I try to keep it simple … and short!

From this a.m.’s post, “Most reporting sector companies … to date have reported net losses, lagging revenue estimates although AXGN, FATE, RGNX and NTLA beat on revenues generating forward motion while ATM use is up.”

“This earnings continuum is overshadowed by Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) clinical news and the possibility of Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT) being an acquisition target by Pfizer (PFE)while many public and private companies are facing conflicting signs of growth.”

As I have been writing … “I am STILL … skeptical that Tuesday through Friday’s rally can be sustain! I am also NOT convinced that the lows are in the cell and gene therapy sector are behind us.”

Volume is still low …

The Nasdaq is above its early June highs, but is coming up to a trendline starting from the beginning of the year. The Russell 2000 is right at its early June highs. <IBD>

  • A longer pause or modest pullback would be healthy. The sector rally has run up four (40 sessions with most of the advances coming on relatively light volume (9 0f 23 up – today).

Meanwhile, a lot of leading stocks or potential leaders could be the “recipient” a breather – “the algos are salivating”.

Although, I’m STILL a firm believer in the flight of Icarus …  since the cell and gene therapy equities have oscillated between gains and losses since the first of the year... a bigger “slip” is on the way – maybe NOT today but, it’s coming!

Hold-on (to the railing) as our portfolios weather these volatile sessions as an ordinary practice.

The coming weeks will reveal more about the cell and gene therapy sector's state of health.

This week, the cell and gene therapy sector Q2 earnings continue full-force: Precigen (PGEN) and Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT) on 8/8; Agenus (AGEN), BioLife Solutions (BLFS) and Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS) on 8/9 and Brainstorm cell Therapeutics (BCLI) on 8/15.

investors should be bracing for more downward LPS (loss-per-share) predictions,

I find it very interesting to evaluate share price over earnings as a proxy for performance.

We always need a villain and they are multiplying – We are stuck in “Earnings’ season, investors NEED to focus on LPS (loss-per-share), collaboration revenues and cash positions i.e., runways”.

I stick to my view of anticipating the risks – as my careers focus has been “warning analysis”.

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.

Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.