November 27, 2020 2:38pm

Week in review

Pre-open indication results: 14 HITs and 1 MISS as Selling into Strength (some partial positions) put money ($) in your portfolio before its stripped

An “intelligence newspaper” for smart investing in the RegMed, gene and cell therapy sector.  I track the numbers, so there’s no question re my opinion; so, you can do what others can't.

Subscription is coming, it’s not conscription but, an offer to join our collective of like-minded investors!  

The Dow closed up +37.90 points (+0.13%); the S&P closed UP +8.70 points (+0.24%) while the Nasdaq closed UP +111.44 points (+0.92%)

 

Henry’omics:

For the short week, the Dow rose +2.2% and S&P 500 inclined +2.3% while the Nasdaq gained +3%.

November’s sharp gains were led by beaten-down value stocks as the positive vaccine news sparked hope for a strong economic recovery.

  • The iShares Russell 1000 Value ETF (IWD) is up 14.7% this month. Its growth counterpart, the iShares Russell 1000 Growth ETF (IWF), has gained 9.2% in that time. <CNBC>

 

Pre-open indication: 14 HITs <Biostage (BSTG +$0.04 with 1,185 shares traded); SELL into Strength: Fate Therapeutics (FATE +$0.79), Athersys (ATHX +$0.13), bluebird bio (BLUE +$0.83), BrainStorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI +$0.26), Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT +$1.05), Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS +$0.89), Precigen (PGEN +$0.01), Verastem (VSTM +$0.29); BUY: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$4.41), Applied Genetic Technologies (AGTC +$0.04), BioLife Solutions (BLFS +$2.91), Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$3.52), Editas Medicine (EDIT +$1.89) and 1 MISS < Sage Therapeutics (SAGE -$7.13)>

 

This morning, I stated in this a.m.’s newsletter – RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: volume was light Wednesday; will it be a lazy session today? … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/11652

 

RegMed/Cell and Gene therapy 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: progressions and regressions …

  • Friday opened positive at 39/4 and 2 flats, closing early positive at 30/4 and 1 flat;
  • Thursday was a market holiday;
  • Wednesday opened positive at 18/15 and 2 flats, stayed positive at the mid-day at 21/12 and 2 flats, closing barely positive at 21/10 and 4 flats;
  • Tuesday opened neutral at 16/16 and 3 flats, strayed negative at the mid-day at 14/18 and 3 flats, closing barely positive at 17/16 and 2 flats;
  • Monday opened positive at 17/16 and 2 flats, stayed positive at the mid-day at 22/10 and 3 flats, closing positive at 17/16 and 2 flats;

 

Key metrics:

  • Sector volume was the usual LOW with 3 of the 30-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with the increased volume of 1 of 4-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Friday’s percentage (%) of the 30-upside were +0.13% (PGEN) to +17.06% (VSTM) while the 4-downside ranges from -1.79% (RENE.L) to -8.62% (SAGE);

 

Hammered in today’s market:

  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE) – even with news of $3 billion deal with Biogen (BIIB), ReNeuron (RENE.L), Mesoblast (MESO), Biostage (BSTG) to name 4 of the 4 declining of the 35 covered

Jumping with share pricing momentum:  

  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP), Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA), BioLife Solutions (BLFS), Ultragenyx (RARE) to name 5 of the 30 inclining of the 35 covered

 

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

  • Friday, the IBB closed up 3.07% and XBI closed UP +3.67%
  • Thursday, was a market holiday
  • Wednesday, the IBB closed up 0.51% and XBI closed UP +0.60%
  • Tuesday, the IBB closed down -0.60% and XBI closed down -0.34%
  • Monday, the IBB closed up +0.21% and XBI closed up +0.36%

 

Friday’s (10 of 30) incliners:

  •  CRISPR Therapeutics (+$11.55);
  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$4.41 after Thursday’s holiday, Wednesday’s -$0.21, Tuesday’s +$2.64 and Monday’s -$1.68);
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$3.52 after Thursday’s holiday, Wednesday’s +$1.05, Tuesday’s +$0.53 and Monday’s +$1.94);
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS +$2.91 after Thursday’s holiday, Wednesday’s +$0.68, Tuesday’s -$0.88 and Monday’s +$0.78);
  • Ultragenyx (RARE +$2.59 after Thursday’s holiday, Wednesday’s +$0.95 and Tuesday’s +$4.19);
  • Editas Medicine (EDIT +$1.89 after Thursday’s holiday, Wednesday’s +$0.43, Tuesday’s -$0.31 after Monday’s +$0.91);
  • Cellectis SA (CLLS +$1.79 after Thursday’s holiday, Wednesday’s -$0.14, Tuesday’s +$0.45 and Monday’s +$0.96);
  • Regenxbio (+$1.40 after Thursday’s holiday, Wednesday’s -$0.27, Tuesday’s +$1.43 and Monday’s -$1.96);
  • Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT +$1.05);

Friday’s (4 of 4) decliner:

  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE -$7.13 after Thursday’s holiday, Wednesday’s+$2.82, Tuesday’s +$1.91 and Monday’s +$1.79);
  • ReNeuron (RENE.L -$1.50 after Thursday’s holiday, Wednesday’s +$8.50, Tuesday’s -$17.50 and Monday’s -$2.00);
  • Mesoblast (MESO -$0.35 after Thursday’s holiday, Wednesday’s -$1.46, Tuesday’s +$0.93 and Monday’s +$2.03);
  • Biostage (-$0.04 – a zombie company);

Closing 1 -Stemline Therapeutics (STML – acquired)

 

Percentage (%) movement/range statistics: a 360 degrees comparison of % and pricing

  • Friday’s percentage (%) of the 30-upside were +0.13% (PGEN) to +17.06% (VSTM) while the 4-downside ranges from -1.79% (RENE.L) to -8.62% (SAGE);
  • Wednesday’s percentage (%) of the 21-upside were +0.01% (CRSP) to +23.03% (PGEN) while the 10-downside ranges from -0.17% (ALNY) to -8.72% (MESO);
  • Wednesday’s percentage (%) of the 21-upside were +0.01% (CRSP) to +23.03% (PGEN) while the 10-downside ranges from -0.17% (ALNY) to -8.72% (MESO);
  • Tuesday’s percentage (%) of the 17-upside were +0.35% (AXGN) to +7.69% (BCLI) while the 16-downside ranges from -0.01% (CRSP) to -18.42% (RENE.L);
  • Monday’s percentage (%) of the xx-upside were +0.12% (VYGR) to +14.73% (MESO) while the xx- downside of -0.33% (BLCM) to -5.86% (PGEN);

 

Sentiment and a few daily indicators:

Sentiment revolves this week and this month around continuation in the rise of optimism while the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX), Wall Street’s preferred fear gauge, dipped below 20 for the first time since late February.

Also helping sentiment were comments from President Trump, who said he would leave the White House if the Electoral College votes for President-elect Biden.

Infection cases <Million>:

  • Friday 12.89 M cases
  • Thursday N/A
  • Wednesday 12.61 M cases
  • Tuesday 12.43 M cases
  • Monday 12.25 M cases

Friday’s death rate totaled 263,525 Thursday was not recorded and Wednesday rate was 260,190, Tuesday’s 257,991, Monday’s 256,803 and last Friday’s 252.564, <Johns Hopkins University>

 

Stats:

Upside volume: 

  • Friday: 3 out of the 30-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Thursday: was a market holiday 
  • Wednesday: 7 out of the 21-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Tuesday: 6 out of the 17-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Monday: 9 out of the 17-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

  • Friday was down -0.41 points or -1.93% at 20.84
  • Thursday was a market holiday
  • Wednesday was down -0.39 points or -1.80% at 21.25
  • Tuesday was down -1.02 points or -4.50% at 21.64
  • Monday was down -1.04 points or -4.39% at 22.66

Downside volume:

  • Friday: 1 out of the 4-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Thursday: was a market holiday;
  • Wednesday: 1 out of the 10-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Tuesday: 5 out of the 16-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Monday: 5 out of the 16-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;

 

November, the 2nd month of Q4 …

Friday closed positive with 30 advancers, 4 decliners and 1 flat 

Thursday was a market holiday

Wednesday closed positive with 21 advancers, 10 decliners and 4 flats 

Tuesday closed positive with 17 advancers, 16 decliners and 2 flats 

Monday (11/23) closed positive with 17 advancers, 16 decliners and 2 flats 

Friday closed positive with 20 advancers, 13 decliners and 2 flats 

Thursday closed positive with 19 advancers, 13 decliners and 3 flats 

Wednesday closed negative with 7 advancers, 25 decliners and 3 flats 

Tuesday closed positive with 18 advancers, 15 decliners and 2 flats 

Monday (11/16) closed positive with 19 advancers, 15 decliners and 1 flat   

Friday closed positive with 22 advancers, 11 decliners and 1 flat 

Thursday closed negative with 15 advancers, 19 decliners and 1 flat 

Wednesday closed positive with 17 advancers, 15 decliners and 3 flats 

Tuesday closed positive with 22 advancers, 11 decliners and 2 flats 

Monday (11/9) closed positive with 21 advancers, 12 decliners and 2 flats 

Friday closed negative with 6 advancers, 28 decliners and 1 flat 

Thursday closed positive with 20 advancers, 11 decliners and 4 flats 

Wednesday closed positive with 28 advancers, 4 decliners and 3 flats 

Tuesday closed positive with 30 advancers, 4 decliners and 1 flat  

Monday (11/2) closed positive with 17 advancers, 15 decliners and 3 flats 

 

The Bottom Line: The sector is what it is … until it isn’t!

Reiterating, you never get hit by a bus that you saw ... I covered my portfolio for risk of inflated pricing.

Are we under-estimating “the risks to the economic outlook as tilted to the downside, with the latest data suggesting an increased probability of a resurgence in the disease?” <extract from Federal Reserve minutes>

Algorithms are circling … make YOUR profit before they STRIP it!

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.