February 13, 2024 4:47pm

Their displacements seems like a slinky from Monday’s market and Nasdaq’s session

With a NO slight sigh of relief, I answer or qualify the sector’s equity’s movement; with an emphasis on which company is gaining or losing stride in their portfolio for the short-term

Pre-open Indications: 3 Hits and 1 Miss

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The Strange Case of Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde might make for a great read, but it’s far less fun when the sector act like it’s their blueprint.

The sector is … still what it is, until it isn’t and even then, it doesn’t seem to be … that is after taking a deep breath and holding it

 

Tuesday: The Dow closed DOWN -524.63 points or -1.35%, the S&P closed DOWN -68.67 points -1.37% while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -286.95 points or -1.80%

 

Henry’omics:

We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …

Tuesday, indexes closed down after hotter-than-expected inflation data for January spiked Treasury yields and raised doubts that the Fed’s would be able to cut rates several times this year.

The Dow had its worst one-day percentage decline since March 22, 2023. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq had their worst days since Jan. 31 of this year.

The big three indexes were still trading higher year to date, up Dow +1.6%, S&P +3.8%, and Nasdaq +4.3%.

Economic Data Docket: CPI, a key inflationary gauge

  • The consumer price index rose 0.3% in January from December. CPI was up 3.1% on an annual basis. Economists expected CPI to have increased by 0.2% month over month in January and 2.9% from a year earlier.
  • Core prices, which exclude volatile food and energy components, rose 0.4% month over month and 3.9% from a year ago. Core CPI was expected to have increased 0.3% in January and 3.7% from a year earlier.

 

Tuesday’s RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: “a domino toppling, could another inflation report screw up the recent upside pattern. If and when sequenced in succession creates a chain reaction.” …  https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13326

 

Pre-open Indications: 3 Hits: < Prime Medicine (PRME -$0.67), Beam Therapeutics (BEAM -$3.42), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$3.66)> 1 Miss < Regenxbio (RGNX -$1.32)>

 

Advance/Decline (A/D) Line:

  • Tuesday’s advance/decline line at the open was negative with 1 incliner, 33 decliners and 1 flat; ending with a negative close of 2 incliners, 33 decliners and 0 flat
  • Monday’s advance/decline line at the open was positive with 25 incliners, 9 decliners and 1 flat; ending with a positive close of 28 incliners, 7 decliners and 0 flat

 

Ebb and flow of MY covered sector cell and gene therapy session daily “endings”:

Q1/24: February, 4 negative and 5 positive closes

  • January: 2 holiday, 12 negative and 8 positive closes

 

Key Metrics:

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

  • Tuesday, the IBB was down -2.55% and the XBI was down -4.70%
  • Monday, the IBB was up +0.87% and the XBI was up +2.34%

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

  • Tuesday was up +2.05 point or +14.72% at 15.98
  • Monday was up +1.00 point or +7.73% at 13.93

 

Tuesday’s Closing Down (10 of xx):

  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$7.34 after Monday’s -$0.69),
  • Blueprint Medicine (BPMC -$4.37 after Monday’s +$1.00
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$3.66 after Monday’s +$6.43
  • Beam Therapeutics (BEAM -$3.42 after Monday’s +$4.35
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$3.16 after Monday’s +$1.38
  • Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE -$2.76),
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS -$1.77 after Monday’s -$1.02),
  • Vericel (VCEL -$1.47 after Monday’s +$0.64
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS -$1.32),
  • Regenxbio (RGNX -$1.32 after Monday’s +$1.15

Tuesday’s Closing Up (2 of 2):

  • Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM +$0.30),
  • Homology Medicine (FIXX +$0.0127 after Monday’s -$0.0017 and Friday’s $0.0093),

 

Q1/24 – February

  • Tuesday closed negative with 2 incliners, 33 decliners and 0 flat
  • (2/12) Monday closed positive with 28 incliners, 7 decliners and 0 flats

 

The BOTTOM LINE: Bad day/session as CPI report was a “a domino toppling sequence creating a chain reaction in my covered group of 35 cell and gene therapy companies.

  • All three major indices sank more than 1% on the heels of the Consumer Price Index - CPI (January inflation) report.
  • Earnings’ week – 2 today of 4 this week – SAGE and BPMC

Reiterating, from Friday, “Don't chase the cell and gene therapy sector, especially with the Nasdaq extended.”

  • The Russell 2000 suffered, tumbling nearly 4% for its worst session since June 2022.

 

A quote from a friend to ponder, “This may well come as a easy excuse to take some of the froth out of the top of this market that’s been universally higher thus far this year. The CPI was, as reported today, just a touch hotter than expectations and proof positive that we’re not on a linear path, but we’re on a path headed lower.” <Art Hogan, chief market strategist at B. Riley Financial>

 

Coming for Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) … earnings’ whispers …

  • The upcoming report from Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) is expected to reveal quarterly loss of $1.20 per share, indicating an increase of 28.6% compared to the year-ago period. Analysts forecast revenues of $443.97 million, representing an increase of 32.5% year over year.
  • The average prediction of analyst’s places 'Product revenues, net' at $339.00 million. The estimate indicates a year-over-year change of +29.6%.
  • The collective assessment of analysts points to an estimated 'Net revenues from research collaborators' of $98.87 million. The estimate suggests a change of +40%
  • Over the past month, ALNY shares have recorded returns of -12.1% <from ZACKS>

CRISPR Therapeutics AG (CRSP) … earnings’ whispers

  • is expected to deliver a year-over-year increase ….
  • In earnings on higher revenues when it reports results for the quarter ended December 2023.
  • Revenues are expected to be $138.09 million, up 1380800% from the year-ago quarter.
  • For the last reported quarter, it was expected that CRISPR Therapeutics AG would post a loss of $1.98 per share when it actually produced a loss of $1.41, delivering a surprise of +28.79%. <ZACKS>

Harvard Apparatus RN (HRGN) closed down -$0.43 with 1.961 shares traded after Monday’s -$0.02 with 5,850 shares traded <3-month average = 1,390 shares)

  • Did you notice how it barely trades unless volume is “pump” – is it by DST Capital, run by the president of HRGN, Hong Yu and Mrs. Mrs. bin Zhao of Weston, Mass – funded by Lui Dong Hai, chairman of Dixintong Technology Group (D. Phone, the largest smartphone retailer in China) the husband of Mrs. bin Zhao??
  • This question needs to be answered as the NEED to desperately finance by private placement – past Chinese investors must be feeling … WHA?

Tuesday:

  • Post CPI and index downfalls …
  • The 10-year Treasury yield spiked 10 basis points to 4.27%, hitting a new high for 2024 after a hotter-than-expected inflation report. The benchmark rate finished 2023 at 3.88%.

Reiterating … again, “the cell and gene therapy sector continues to “recalibrate” its share pricing expectations and I don't think this … adjustment is completely over.”

  • Earnings and guidance are beginning as Sage Therapeutics (SAGE) with Blueprint Medicine (BPMC) on 2/14; Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) and Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE) on 2/15 announcing Q4 and FY23 which WILL be crucial to continue downside force in the sector as history has taught us i.e., investors.

The top three (3) performing in the session:

  • Tuesday: Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM) and Homology Medicine (FIXX)
  • Monday: CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP), Beam Therapeutics (BEAM) and Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA)

The worst three (3) in the session:  

  • Tuesday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Blueprint Medicine (BLMC) and CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP)
  • Monday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS) and Graphite Bio (GRPH)

Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!

  • Right up front, “I also hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and facts are its product; I can always be WRONG but … I am mostly EARLY!”

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. Whether information or intelligence is good, bad, or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor, and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication. Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities.

I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.