February 5, 2024 5:00pm

Pre-open indication: 4 Hits and 1 Miss

RegMed Investors (RMi): Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM) 106.25 M Share Private Placement priced at $1.20 … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13314

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Yet again, with NO slight sigh of relief, I qualify the sector’s equity’s movement; with an emphasis on which company is gaining or losing stride in “our” portfolio in the short-term

It’s not hard to be right so often, it’s about refining expectation, defining insight and NOT being indentured to ANY financial institution!

 

Monday: The Dow closed DOWN -274.30 points or -0.71%, the S&P closed DOWN -15.80 points -0.32% while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -31,28 points or -0.20%

 

Henry’omics:

We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …

Indexes dived as Treasury yields spiked higher on concerns the Federal Reserve may not cut rates as much as expected.

Economic Data Docket: ISM nonmanufacturing reading hits 53.4, higher than expected. A reading above 50 indicates expansion. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for 52.

The U.S. services sector expanded at a faster than expected pace in January, growing for the 13th straight month and providing some strong economic momentum to start the year.

  • January’s reading was nearly 3 points better than December, pushed by a sharp gain in employment, which came out of contraction territory and rose to 50.5, a gain of 6.7 points. New orders accelerated to 55 while the prices index surged to 64, a gain of 7.3 points.

 

Monday’s RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: “the “canary in the (sectors) coal mine. A weak after/pre-market doesn’t float the sector!” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13313

 

Pre-open Indications: 4 Hits < CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$0.24), Blueprint Medicine (BLMC -$2.92), Fate Therapeutics (FATE -$0.16), Solid Biosciences (SLDB -$0.25)> 1 Miss <Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$0.45)>

 

Advance/Decline (A/D) Line:

  • Monday’s advance/line lines at the open was negative with 5 incliners, 28 decliners and 2; ending with a negative close of 11 incliners, 23 decliners and 1 flat

 

52-week low:

  • bluebird bio (BLUE) at $0.91
  • uniQure NV (QURE) at $5.22

 

Ebb and flow of MY covered sector cell and gene therapy session daily “endings”:

Q1/24: February, 2 negative and 1 positive closes

  • January: 2 holiday, 12 negative and 8 positive closes

 

Key Metrics:

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

  • Monday, the IBB was up +0.19% and the XBI was up +0.50%

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

  • Monday was down -0.20 point or -1.44% at 13.65

 

Monday’s Closing Down (10 of 23):

  • Blueprint Medicine (BPMC -$2.92 after Friday’s -$0.30),
  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$2.36 after Friday’s -$1.86),
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE -$0.50 after Friday’s -$1.23),
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$0.45 after Friday’s +$0.03
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS -$0.32 after Friday’s -$1.22),
  • Solid Biosciences (SLDB -$0.25),
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$0.24 after Friday’s +$0.08),
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS -$0.21),
  • Verve Therapeutics (VERV -$0.20 after Friday’s -$0.20),
  • Fate Therapeutics (FATE -$0.16 after Friday’s -$0.24)

Monday’s Closing Up (12 of 12):

  • Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE +$1.74 after Friday’s -$1.08
  • Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM +$0.49 after private placement financing in public company),
  • Vericel (VCEL +$0.33 after Friday’s -$0.76),
  • Regenxbio (RGNX +$0.08 after Friday’s -$0.44),
  • Sangamo Therapeutics (SGMO +$0.0684),
  • uniQure NV (QURE +$0.03),
  • Caribou Biosciences (CRBU +$0.03),
  • Mesoblast (MESO +$0.03),
  • Bellicum Pharmaceuticals (BLCM +$0.0104),
  • Beam Therapeutics (BEAM +$0.01 after Friday’s -$0.51),
  • Generation Bio (GBIO +$0.01),
  • Homology Medicine (FIXX +$0.0017 after Friday’s +$0.0005),

 

Q1/24 – February

  • (2/5) Monday closed negative with 12 incliners, 23 decliners and 0 flat
  • Friday closed negative with 7 incliners, 26 decliners and 2 flats
  • (2/1) Thursday closed positive with 26 incliners, 7 decliners and 2 flats

 

The BOTTOM LINE: A share pricing "dump" in the cell and gene therapy sector follows another dive after Thursday’s jump <positive close>; following a dumps ... which lately have become a routine!

Indexes lost ground on Monday after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell pushed back firmly against speculation that rate cuts would be imminent, while investors assessed a mixed bag of U.S. earnings reports.

  • In an interview aired on Sunday, Powell said more evidence on a sustainable downtrend in inflation was needed to warrant lower rates, while Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari wrote in an essay published on Monday that a resilient economy could defer rate cuts for some time. <Both Reuters>

What more can I write; I have said it all – read the weeklies and know I have been RIGHT!

  • Adding pressure was U.S. Treasuries, with 10-year yields up for second day straight and hitting their highest level since late January.

Geo-political risk coming at you: The Biden administration has limited its previous retaliation to over 170 attacks by Iran-supported militias on U.S. forces and a drone attack killed three U.S. troops in Jordan.

Reiterating … again, “the cell and gene therapy sector continues to “recalibrate” its share pricing expectations and I don't think this … adjustment is completely over.”

  • Earnings and guidance are beginning 2/5 as Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) and Sage Therapeutics (SAGE) along with Blueprint Medicine (BPMC) on 2/14 announcing Q4 and FY23 which WILL be crucial to continue downside force in the sector as history has taught us i.e., investors.

Today’s business news affecting “our” universe:

  • The yield on the 10-year Treasury note was last up more than 13 basis points to 4.168% as investors assessed a fresh batch of strong economic data that suggested rates may stay elevated for longer than anticipated. The benchmark yield traded around 3.81% last week.

The top three (3) performing in the session:

  • Monday: Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE), Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM) and Vericel (VCEL)
  • Friday: Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) and Caribou Biosciences (CRBU)

The worst three (3) in the session:  

  • Monday: Blueprint Medicine (BLMC), Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) and Sage Therapeutics (SAGE)
  • Friday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Sage Therapeutics (SAGE) and Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS)

Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!

  • Right up front, “I also hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and facts are its product; I can always be WRONG but … I am mostly EARLY!”

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. Whether information or intelligence is good, bad, or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor, and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication. Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities.

I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.