January 17, 2024 4:32pm

How low will it go after 8 negative and 3 positive closes so far in January 2024

Sentiment shrinks as yields continued to track nearly 6 basis points higher at 4.121%

Pre-open Indication: 5 Hits and 2 Miss

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With NO sigh of relief, I answer or qualify equity’s thrown dice, in which company should investors put or keep in their portfolio for the near and long term

Join me … in the NO spin zone. If you’re looking for sector intel, ideas and facts or Insight in a volatile climate, RMi provides the extenuating factors of share pricing.

 

Wednesday: The Dow closed DOWN -94.32 points or -0.25%, the S&P closed DOWN -26.74 points or -0.56% while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -88.72 points or -0.59%

 

Henry’omics:

We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …

Indexes dived again … on Wednesday, as rising Treasury yields pressured markets after upbeat December retail sales data, tempering hopes of the Fed kicking off its rate-cut campaign as early as March.

Stocks inched down Wednesday, building on the losses seen in the previous session, as yields continued to track higher.

Economic Data Docket: Retail sales were up 0.6% from November gaining 0.4% month-over-month excluding autos as the economic activity over the past seven weeks has been largely stagnant, with both hiring and prices rising at a “modest to moderate” pace, according to the Fed’s Beige Book report.

  • Retail sales data for December came in stronger-than-expected, indicating a resilient consumer and putting aggressive rate cuts from the Fed into doubt. Economists had estimated a 0.4% month-to-month increase in retail sales and 0.2% ex-autos.
  • Strong retail sales data is not a green light for lower rates.
  • The “Beige Book” summary of conditions across the Fed’s 12 districts found economic activity to be “relatively unchanged” since the last report on Nov. 29, 2023. From a sector standpoint, housing weakened as did the demand for mortgages amid elevated interest rates.

 

Pre-open Indications 5 Hits < Cellectis SA (CLLS -$0.17),  Prime Medicine (PRME -$0.21), REGENXBIO (RGNX -$1.11), Verve Therapeutics (VERV -$0.16), Vericel (VCEL -$1.37)> 2 Miss <Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +1.06).Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS +$0.26) > 

 

52-week low:

Mesoblast (MESO) drops -$0.16 to $1.67 after a 1 for 2 split.

  • Mesoblast Limited (MESO and ASX: MSB), who have seen the share price tank a massive 89% over a 3-year period. The share price down 68% in a year. Furthermore, it's down 21% in about a quarter.

 

Tuesday’s Pre-Open: RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: “still looking-up from the abyss” …  https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13288

 

The Advance/Decline (A/D) line:

  • Wednesday’s advance/decline line was negative at the open with 5 incliners, 28 decliners and 2 flats, ending with a negative close of 6 incliners, 29 decliners and 0 flat

 

Ebb and flow of MY covered sector cell and gene therapy session daily “endings”:

Q1/24: 2 holidays, 8 negative and 3 positive closes

 

Key Metrics:

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

  • Wednesday, the IBB was down -0.67% and the XBI was down -0.81%

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

  • Wednesday was up +0.97 point or +7.01% at 14.81

 

Wednesday’s Closing Down (10 of 29):

  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$2.57 after Tuesday’s -$0.82),
  • Vericel (VCEL -$1.37 after Tuesday’s +$0.96),
  • Blueprint Medicine (BPMC -$1.14 after Tuesday’s -$2.41
  • Regenxbio (RGNX -$1.11 after Tuesday’s +$0.14),
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$1.02 after Tuesday’s -$0.91),
  • Beam Therapeutics (BEAM -$0.97 after Tuesday’s -$0.50),
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS -$0.79 after Tuesday’s +$0.14),
  • Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE -$0.56 after Tuesday’s -$1.70
  • Editas Medicine (EDIT -$0.42),
  • Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR -$0.24 after Tuesday’s -$0.32),

Wednesday’s Closing Up (6 of 6):

  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$%1.06 after Tuesday’s -$5.90
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE +$0.55),
  • MiMedx (MDXG +$0.27 after Tuesday’s +$0.04),
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS +$0.26 after Tuesday’s -$2.51),
  • Solid Biosciences (SLDB +$0.06 after Tuesday’s +$0.29),
  • Homology Medicine (FIXX +$0.0137)

 

Q1/24 – January

  • Wednesday closed negative with 6 incliners, 29 decliners and 0 flat

 

The BOTTOM LINE: As I had stated, the cell and gene therapy sector has “recalibrated” its expectations and I don't think this … adjustment is completely over.

  • The cell and gene therapy sector showed yet another “touch” of weakness on Wednesday, Tuesday following Monday’s holiday, the previous Friday’s negative close, Thursday’s positive close following Wednesday’s negative close.

 

Sentiment continues to slip as “our” universe is about the kick-off earnings’ LPS (loss-per-share) season as estimates and consensus usually get beaten. Remember, “Pricing for gene therapies medications will continue to dominate share ascensions and downfalls!” <me>

 

Today’s non-attractives: <Reuters>

  • US retail sales beat expectations in December
  • The CBOE Market Volatility Index, a market fear gauge, rose to an over two-month high of 15.37 points during the day.
  • The small-cap Russell 2000 index dropped 0.9% to a fresh one-month low.

The top three (3) performing in the session:

  • Wednesday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Sage Therapeutics (SAGE) and MiMedx (MDXG)
  • Tuesday: Vericel (VCEL), Solid Biosciences (SLDB) and BioLife Solutions (BLFS)
  • Monday was a market holiday

The worst three (3) in the session:

  • Wednesday: CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP), Blueprint Medicine (BPMC) – 2x and Vericel (VCEL)
  • Tuesday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS) and Blueprint Medicine (BPMC)
  • Monday was a market holiday

Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!

  • Right up front, “I also hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and facts are its product; I can always be WRONG but … I am mostly EARLY!”

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. Whether information or intelligence is good, bad, or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor, and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication. Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities.

I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.