February 16, 2024 4:45pm

A 5-week winning streak ended the week negative

Pre-open Indications: 6 Hits and 0 Miss

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A 360-degree review of the who, why, when and what happened in the sector as the market and economics surround your portfolio defense. The Bottom Line includes earnings “whispers”!

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Week in Review
 

Today is the perfect example of the sector being what it is, until it isn’t and even then, it doesn’t seem to be … that is after taking a deep breath and holding it

I write this blog/newsletter to inform investors with facts and supporting numbers focused on what they need to hear that others will not say or write about – facts in evidence! 

This week, economic data releases have sent equities seesawing back and forth.

 

Friday: The Dow closed DOWN -145.13 points or -0.37%, the S&P closed DOWN -24.16 points -0.48% while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -130.52 points or -0.82%

 

Henry’omics:

We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …

Indexes closed down as the 10-year treasury yield (^TNX) jumped above 4.3% after a hotter than expected wholesale inflation read. The 2-year Treasury yield topped 4.7%, the highest since December.

This week’s whiplash action snapped a five-week winning streak. The S&P 500 is now down 0.2% for the week, while the Dow is hovering around the flatline. The Nasdaq is poised to slide 0.6%. <CNBC>

Economic Data Docket: The producer price index, a key gauge measuring wholesale inflation, jumped 0.3% in January from the prior month, compared with the 0.1% rise expected by economists.

  • Residential starts decreased 14.8% last month to a 1.3 million annualized rate, after an upward revision to the prior month, government data showed Friday. Multifamily home construction plummeted by more than 35% after surging in the prior month, while single-family groundbreakings also slowed.

 

Friday’s RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: “a ripple effect soon to be in motion. What goes up with drama, floats down diffidently.” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13334

 

Pre-open Indications: 6 Hits: <Sell into Strength = Blueprint Medicine (BPMC +$2.89), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$1.62), Prime Medicine (PRME +$0.63), Regenxbio (RGNX +$1.03), Vericel (VCEL +$0.20); Positive = Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$0.22)> 0 Miss <

 

Advance/Decline (A/D) Line:

  • Friday’s advance/decline line at the open was negative with 13 incliner, 19 decliners and 3 flats; ending with a negative close of 18 incliners, 17 decliners and 0 flat

 

Ebb and flow of MY covered sector cell and gene therapy session daily “endings”:

Q1/24: February, 4 negative and 8 positive closes

  • January: 2 holiday, 12 negative and 8 positive closes

 

Key Metrics:

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

  • Friday, the IBB was down -0.58% and the XBI was down -0.13%
  • Thursday, the IBB was up +1.28% and the XBI was up +2.30%
  • Wednesday, the IBB was up +1.89% and the XBI was up +2.78%
  • Tuesday, the IBB was down -2.55% and the XBI was down -4.70%
  • Monday, the IBB was up +0.87% and the XBI was up +2.34%

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

  • Friday was up +0.29 point or +2.07% at 14.30
  • Thursday was down -0.20 point or -1.39% at 14.18
  • Wednesday was down -1.40 point or -8.83% at 14.45
  • Tuesday was up +2.05 point or +14.72% at 15.98
  • Monday was up +1.00 point or +7.73% at 13.93

 

Friday’s Closing Down (10 of 17):

  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$2.26 after Thursday’s +$5.44, Wednesday’s +$6.26, Tuesday’s -$3.66 and Monday’s +$6.43),
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE -$2.14 after Thursday’s -$0.34 after Wednesday’s +$2.73),
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS -$0.85 after Thursday’s -$3.79),
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$0.73),
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS -$0.54),
  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$0.43 after Thursday’s -$16.72, Wednesday’s +$2.15, Tuesday’s -$7.34 and Monday’s -$0.69),
  • Verve Therapeutics (VERV -$0.19),
  • MiMedx (MDXG -$0.18),
  • Vericel (VCEL -$0.17),
  • Editas Medicine (EDIT -$0.16),

Friday’s Closing Up (10 of 18):

  • Blueprint Medicine (BPMC +$2.69 after Thursday’s +$10.77, Wednesday’s +$3.63 after Tuesday’s -$4.37 and Monday’s +$1.00
  • Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE +$2.66 after Thursday’s +$0.60 after Wednesday’s +$1.68 and Tuesday’s -$2.76),
  • Prime Medicine (PRME +$0.66 after Thursday’s +$0.94),
  • Fate Therapeutics (FATE +$0.48 after Thursday’s +$0.59),
  • Regenxbio (RGNX +$0.38 after Thursday’s +$1.66, Wednesday’s +$0.75, Tuesday’s -$1.32 and Monday’s +$1.15
  • uniQure NV (QURE +$0.37),
  • Sangamo Therapeutics (SGMO +$0.33),
  • Solid Biosciences (SLDB +$0.19 after Thursday’s +$0.68 and Wednesday’s +$1.30),
  • Harvard Apparatus GN (HRGN +$0.16 after Thursday’s -$0.10, Wednesday’s $0.00, Tuesday’s -$0.43 and Monday’s -$0.02)
  • Compass Therapeutics (CMPX +$0.13)

 

Q1/24 – February

  • Friday closed positive with 18 incliners, 17 decliners and 0 flats
  • Thursday closed positive with 28 incliners, 7 decliners and 0 flat
  • Wednesday closed positive with 31 incliners, 3 decliners and 1 flat
  • Tuesday closed negative with 2 incliners, 33 decliners and 0 flat
  • (2/12) Monday closed positive with 28 incliners, 7 decliners and 0 flats

 

The BOTTOM LINE: The cell and gene therapy sector closed BARELY up on Friday after a bumpy session and ANOTHER hotter than expected inflation reading

AS I had stated on Thursday, “got a broom? A sweep of the portfolio downside risks pre-earnings usually needed; with another round of economic data.”

  • Earnings, net losses, and per-share losses, runways and guidance have begun Q4 and FY23 which WILL be crucial to continue downside force in the sector as history has taught us i.e., investors.

 

A quote to ponder:

“Investors should brace for more near-term volatility ahead. Until recently, most investors were confident “that rate cuts would start in the first half of the year, and it’s looking more likely that the Fed will delay until the second half...

The seesaw market is really reflective of this tug-of-war between high sticky inflation — which suggests no near-term rate cuts — and strong earnings and other signs of a robust economy, which underscores investors belief that there’s more growth ahead for stocks.” < Greg Bassuk, chief executive officer at AXS Investments>

 

Vericel (VCEL) … earnings whisper

  • Vericel Corporation (VCEL) is expected to deliver a year-over-year increase in earnings on higher revenues when it reports results for the quarter ended December 2023.
  • Expected to post quarterly earnings of $0.18 per share in its upcoming report, which represents a year-over-year change of +50%.
  • Revenues are expected to be $65 million, up 23.4% from the year-ago quarter. <ZACKS>

CRISPR Therapeutics AG (CRSP) … earnings’ whispers

  • is expected to deliver a year-over-year increase ….
  • In earnings on higher revenues when it reports results for the quarter ended December 2023.
  • Revenues are expected to be $138.09 million, up 1380800% from the year-ago quarter.
  • For the last reported quarter, it was expected that CRISPR Therapeutics AG would post a loss of $1.98 per share when it actually produced a loss of $1.41, delivering a surprise of +28.79%. <ZACKS>

Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS) … earnings whispers

  • Expected to post quarterly loss of $0.78 per share in its upcoming report, which represents a year-over-year change of -110.8%.
  • Revenues are expected to be $183.6 million, up 20.8% from the year-ago quarter.
  • The consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has been revised 12.59% lower over the last 30 days to the current level.
  • For the last reported quarter, it was expected that Ionis Pharmaceuticals would post a loss of $1.01 per share when it actually produced a loss of $1.03, delivering a surprise of -1.98%.
  • Over the last four quarters, the company has beaten consensus EPS estimates three times. <ZACKS>

Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA) … earnings whispers

  • Expects a year-over-year decline in earnings on higher revenues when Intellia Therapeutics, Inc. (NTLA) reports results for the quarter ended December 2023.
  • NTLA is expected to post quarterly loss of $1.47 per share in its upcoming report, which represents a year-over-year change of -5%.
  • Revenues are expected to be $15.1 million, up 11.3% from the year-ago quarter. <ZACKS>

 

The Harvard Apparatus RN (HRGN) formerly the Biostage (BSTG) Chronicles: shows how the “pimp/pump and promote” works …

  • closed Friday +$0.16 with 3,109 shares traded
  • Thursday’s down -$0.17 with 1,200 shares traded
  • Wednesday’s flat +$0.00 with 1,300 shares traded,
  • Tuesday’s down -$0.53 with 2,000 shares traded
  • following Monday’s down -$0.02 with 5,900 shares traded <3-month average = 1,390 shares)

Did you notice how it barely trades unless volume is “pumped” – is it by DST Capital, run by the president of HRGN’s Hong Yu and neighbor, Mrs. Mrs. bin Zhao of Weston, Mass.

  • Funded by Lui Dong Hai, chairman of Dixintong Technology Group (D. Phone, the largest smartphone retailer in China) the husband of Mrs. bin Zhao??

This question needs to be answered as the NEED to desperately finance by private placement – past Chinese investors must be feeling … WHAT?

  • Making promises to Chinese investors, management can't keep isn't a real strategy, especially when you're asking/raising money to continue operations as HRGN was Out-of-Cash 1/2/24!

 

The top three (3) performing in the session:

  • Friday: Blueprint Medicine (BLMC), Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE) and Prime Medicine (PRME)
  • Thursday: Blueprint Medicine (BLMC), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) and Vericel (VCEL)
  • Wednesday: CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP), Blueprint Medicine (BLMC) and Sage Therapeutics (SAGE)
  • Tuesday: Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM) and Homology Medicine (FIXX)
  • Monday: CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP), Beam Therapeutics (BEAM) and Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA)

The worst three (3) in the session:  

  • Friday: CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP), Sage Therapeutics (SAGE) and Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS)
  • Thursday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS) and Sage Therapeutics (SAGE)
  • Wednesday: Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM), uniQure NV (QURE) and Homology Medicine (FIXX)
  • Tuesday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Blueprint Medicine (BLMC) and CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP)
  • Monday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS) and Graphite Bio (GRPH)

Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!

  • Right up front, “I also hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and facts are its product; I can always be WRONG but … I am mostly EARLY!”

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. Whether information or intelligence is good, bad, or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor, and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication. Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities.

I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.