February 26, 2024 5:25pm
As a 4th positive close begets a bigger bubble
Earnings: Fate Therapeutics (FATE)
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One can take a good or bad feeling, re-frame it, and suddenly that feeling is the solution. Not me, I don’t run from any feeling but, take that sensation itself as a sharpened stick to “poke’ mainstream thinking.
I write this blog/newsletter to inform investors with facts and supporting numbers focused on what they need to hear that others will not say or write about – facts in evidence!
Monday: The Dow closed DOWN -62.30 points or -0.16%, the S&P closed DOWN -190.27 points -0.38% while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -20.57 points or -0.13%
Henry’omics:
We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …
Indexes slipped on Monday retreating from a record notched last Friday as investors await key inflation data.
Economic Data Docket: New home sales in January came in below economists’ estimates as mortgage interest rates remained elevated. Sales of new single-family homes came in at 661,000 for the month, an increase of 1.5%, according to seasonally adjusted numbers the Census Bureau and Department of Housing and Urban Development released Monday. The total missed the Dow Jones estimate for 680,000 and 2.4%, respectively. <CNBC>
Friday’s RegMed Investors’ (RMi) closing bell: “is the sector chewing “bubble” gum? A lot more LPS (loss-per-share) earnings to be reported.” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13344
Advance/Decline (A/D) Line:
- Monday’s advance/decline line at the mid-day was positive with 10 incliner, 25 decliners and 0 flats; ending with a positive close of 7 incliners, 28 decliners and 0 flats
Ebb and flow of MY covered sector cell and gene therapy session daily “endings”:
Q1/24: February, 1 holiday, 7 negative and 10 positive closes
- January: 2 holiday, 12 negative and 8 positive closes
Key Metrics:
The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:
- Monday, the IBB was up +0.70% and the XBI was up +22.73%
The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:
- Monday was down -0.01 point or -0.07% at 13.74
Monday’s Closing Down (7 of 7):
- Solid Biosciences (SLDB -$0.51 after Friday’s +$0.50)
- Cellectis SA (CLLS -$0.11 after Friday’s -$0.10),
- Harvard Apparatus RT (HRGN -$0.09 after Friday’s +$0.06),
- Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM -$0.05 after Friday’s -$0.10)
- Mesoblast (MESO -$0.0420),
- Fate Therapeutics (FATE -$0.01 after Friday's +$0.08),
- Sangamo Therapeutics (SGMO -$0.01)
Monday’s Closing Up (10 of 28):
- Blueprint Medicine (BPMC +$5.56 after Friday’s +$3.49
- CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$2.07 after Friday’s -$2.20),
- Beam Therapeutics (BEAM +$1.81 after Friday’s +$0.45),
- Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$1.56 after Friday’s -$1.08),
- Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$1.01 after Friday’s -$5.16),
- Verve Therapeutics (VERV +$0.99 after Friday’s +$0.13),
- Regenxbio (RGNX +$0.93 after Friday’s -$0.76),
- Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE +$0.77 after Friday’s +$0.60),
- Vericel (VCEL +$0.76),
- Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS +$0.74 after Friday’s +$1.38),
Q1/24 – February
- Monday closed positive with 28 incliners, 7 decliners and 0 flats
The BOTTOM LINE: The cell and gene therapy sector on Monday blew a big bubble after Friday’s slow start edged to a positive close after ascending on Thursday after Wednesday’s barely positive following Tuesday’s negative close and Monday’s holiday following a negative close on the previous Friday.
Earnings, net losses, and per-share losses, runways and guidance have begun Q4 and FY23 which WILL be crucial to continue downside force in the sector as history has taught us i.e., investors.
I have seen 1 net income for the Q4 (but a FY23 loss) – CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP).
7 have reported … NTLA, CRSP, IONS, SAGE, RARE, BPMC and ALNY.
Next week: Monday - FATE, Tuesday-RGNX, Wednesday – MDXG, EDIT, VYGR and Thursday - BLFS
• RegMed Investors (RMi) - Q4/23 & FY23 Cell and Gene Therapy Earnings Scorecard Results https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/11628
Spent most of my Monday in the ER of local hospital (Milford regional) with the bride and a very bad sprained wrist.
Fate Therapeutics earnings:
- Q4/23 net loss of -$44.1 M or -$0.45 and FY23 net loss of -$169.9 M or -$1.64
- Cash position: $316.2 M and runway until early 2025 with revenue = $1.7 M
I ALSO reiterate, “Don't chase the cell and gene therapy sector, especially with the Nasdaq extended.”
Short and non-sweet: SELL into STRENGTH – accumulate some “powder” i.e., cash!
Beam Therapeutics (BEAM) … earnings’ whisper
- Beam Therapeutics Inc. (BEAM) is expected to deliver a year-over-year decline in earnings on lower revenues when it reports results for the quarter ended December 2023.
- Expected to post quarterly loss of $1.15 per share in its upcoming report, which represents a year-over-year change of -113%.
- Revenues are expected to be $16.92 million, down 15.6% from the year-ago quarter.
- Earnings ESP of -3.99%.
Vericel (VCEL) … earnings whisper
- Vericel Corporation (VCEL) is expected to deliver a year-over-year increase in earnings on higher revenues when it reports results for the quarter ended December 2023.
- Expected to post quarterly earnings of $0.18 per share in its upcoming report, which represents a year-over-year change of +50%.
- Revenues are expected to be $65 million, up 23.4% from the year-ago quarter. <ZACKS>
The top three (3) performing in the session:
Monday: Blueprint Medicine (BLMC), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) and Beam Therapeutics (BEAM)
The worst three (3) in the session:
Monday: Solid Biosciences (SLDB), Cellectis SA (CLLS) and Harvard Apparatus RT (HRGN)
The Harvard Apparatus RT (OTC QB HRGN) formerly the Biostage (BSTG) Chronicles: shows how the “pimp/pump and promote” works …my treatise is VALIDATED!
- (2/26) Monday closed down -$0.09 with 350 shares traded
- Friday closed up +$0.0625 with 8,114 shares traded <aver 3-mo = 2,186>
- Thursday closed up +$0.0075 with 15,907 shares traded
- Wednesday close down -$0.02 with 1,106 shares traded,
- Tuesday closed up +$0.24 with 24,963 shares traded <3-month average = 1,545 shares> WOW, if this doesn’t prove my point – nothing will!!
- (2/19) Monday was market holiday
Did you notice how it barely trades unless volume is being “pumped.” This question needs to be answered as HRGN is desperate to finance by any means as past Chinese private placement investors must be feeling … WHAT … TAKEN to the cleaners?
Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!
- Right up front, “I also hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and facts are its product; I can always be WRONG but … I am mostly EARLY!”
Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. Whether information or intelligence is good, bad, or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.
Henry McCusker, the editor, and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication. Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities.
I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.
