August 23, 2021 5:18pm

What’s driving ROI and share price opportunity – sporadic moves doesn’t endear sentiment as current sector behavior does not drive sustainability

The Biostage (BSTG) Chronicles: 38,354 shares (+$0.68 to $1.89) traded today after months of 100 to 1,100 daily trading volume. Is it all about exercising $2.00 warrants from multiple private placements to raise any cash for a clinical trial (with an IND aged by 1.5 years) that never began?

Pre-open indications: 1 MISS and 5 HITs

My comments try to distinguish the temporary from real pricing digression or progress.

Who else is tracking a broad representative index of cell and gene therapy equities – the facts are supported by real numbers?


The Dow closed UP +215.63 points (+0.61%); the S&P closed UP +37.86 points (+0.85%) while the Nasdaq closed UP +227.99 points (+1.55%)

 

Henry’omics:

Indexes finished higher Monday following a volatile and losing week

For the month of August, the S&P 500 is up 1.92% month to date, while the Dow has gained 1.15% and the Nasdaq has climbed 1.84%.

While the cell and gene therapy sector … roared but, for how long as I believe a sell-off and a crater are coming.

 

Data Docket: Home sales increased for the second straight month in July. Existing home sales rose 2% to a seasonally adjusted 5.99 million units in July, from a month earlier, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR). June total units sold were also revised up from 5.86 million to 5.78 million. The results outpaced analyst expectations of a decline of 0.5% and 5.83 million units.

 

RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: “market gained after loses while sector gained; what’s next?”https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12061

 

The Biostage (BSTG) Chronicles: “Facts from filed 10-Q” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12055

 

Q2/21 Earnings releases … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/11542  … to date:

  • Net Income: 3 and Net losses: 23

 

RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines:

  • Monday opened positive at 32/2 and 1 acquired, remained positive at the mid-day to 8/24, 2 flats and 1 acquired, closing positive 32/1, 1 flat and 1 acquired;

 

Key Metrics:

  • Sector volume was LOW with 10 of the 32-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with very LOW volume of 1 of 1-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Monday’s percentage (%) of the 32-upside were +0.31% (ALNY) to +56.20% (BSTG) while the 1-downside -0.59% (IONS);

 

The Biostage (BSTG) Chronicles: Monday closed up +$0.68 with 38,354 shares trade after Friday closed down -$0.07 with 570 shares traded, Thursday closed flat at with 50 shares traded, Wednesday closed down -$0.10 with 739 shares traded, Tuesday closed flat with 1 share traded and last Monday closed down -$0.22 to $1.38 with 135 shares traded.

  • Today is an exact fact, how the share trades with the “push/promote” - another typical example

 

Pre-open Indications: 5 HITs <SELL: Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS -$0.23); SELL into Strength: Cellectis SA (CLLS +$1.01), Chinook Therapeutics (KDNY +$0.80), Editas Medicine (EDIT +$4.98), CRISPR Therapeutics (CTSP +$7.80)> 0 MISS < Biostage (BSTG +$0.68)>;

 

There are clear winners and losers

Jumping with share pricing momentum:

  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA) - again, CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP), Fate Therapeutics (FATE), Editas Medicine (EDIT) - again, Ultragenyx (RARE) – again, to name 5 of the 32 inclining of the 35 covered

Hammered in today’s market:

  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS) to name 1 of the 1 declining of the 35 covered

 

Monday’s (10 of 32) incliners:

  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$8.75 after Friday’s +$5.25);
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$7.80);
  • Fate Therapeutics (FATE +$5.26 after Friday’s -$18.62);
  • Editas Medicine (EDIT +$4.98 after Friday’s +$2.28);
  • Ultragenyx (RARE +$4.49 after Friday’s +$2.24);
  • Vericel (VCEL +$2.31),
  • Regenxbio (RGNX +$2.13 after Friday’s +$0.63);
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS +$1.38 after Friday’s -$0.79);
  • uniQure NV (QURE +$1.24);
  • Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT +$1.18 after Friday’s +$1.70);

Monday’s (1 of 1) decliners:

  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS -$0.23 after Friday’s +$1.42);

Closing – 1 –ReNeuron (RENE.L) and 1 -Stemline Therapeutics (STML) – acquired

 

Stats:

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

  • Monday, the IBB closed up +2.85% and XBI closed up +4.59%

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

  • Monday was down -1.41 points or -7.60% at 17.15

Upside volume:

  • Monday: 1 out of the 1-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;

Downside volume:

  • Monday: 10 out of the 32-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;

Percentage (%) movement/range statistics: price versus percentage …

  • Monday’s percentage (%) of the 32-upside were +0.31% (ALNY) to +56.20% (BSTG) while the 1-downside -0.59% (IONS);

 

August, the second month of Q3/21:

Monday (8/23) closed positive with 32 advancers, 1 decliner, 1 flat and 1 acquired

 

 

The BOTTOM LINE: Investor conviction and any trust is being challenged even as the sector rises, I also believe a “conflagration” is coming.

Reiterating, being oversold set-up a BUYING “condition”.

When you’re on a roller coaster, the only thing you can be sure of is you’ll end up back where you started.

Q2 reporting season has essentially run its course; although a few remain with my questions of WHY so late …?

A tool that hasn’t resonated … guidance is one factor of the sector.

I am keeping an eye on “runways” … as 2024 seems to be timing factor for most.

I’m STILL a “beware or the cautious man” whose focus has always been “warning analysis” … earnings’ season is NOT over … my advice, trim and skim any new highs if one can!”

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.

Regulation Analyst Certification ("Reg AC"): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.